What a phenomenal year for Kaetlyn Osmond
She win Nebelhorn Trophy, win Skate Canada and she has completely prove to Japanese that she is a figure skater to watch for World because at her last competition at Skate Canada Challenge (5-9 december), she delivered a performance superior to Mao Asada who won the Grand Prix Final.
She earn 198.70 at Skate Canada Challenge this year!
Kaetlyn is greatly improved and she has no pressure when she competes compared to other skaters.
I think this year that she is able to get the gold medal at the world championships. Why not, Yu-Na Kim and Mao Asada in their first year Senior and world championships have finished 2nd and 3rd respectively, while I think Kaetlyn is able to do the same and surprise the world with her superb programs. I love her skating
What are your thought about Kaetlyn Osmond this season ? Do you think that she has the potential to medal at the world championships and do you think that she is someone to watched at the next Olympic Games?
Last edited by coolboogie22; 12-10-2012 at 09:43 AM.
I think it's just great that Canada has a lady who should easily finish in the top ten at Worlds. It was only a few short months ago that all hope was lost.
As for potential. Bronze medallists at worlds can often be a surprise as the pressure gets to the favourites and they fall apart an underdog can come through to snatch that bronze. But no, I think if all women skate to their potential Osmond is not on judges radar for a medal in London or Sochi. I think a top ten finish at this point is a great result. Top five would be phenomenal but again there are others on the radar to make that difficult.
But I do think she is an exciting rising star and it's nice to see a Canadian lady who looks like they enjoy to compete. I´m hoping she keeps that spirit and is like Meghan Duhamel in her approach to her skating ie..analytical and determined and positive.
Given your other posts in other threads, you are quite obviously completely obsessed by Osmond. We get that. Do you really need to start another thread about your obsession? She did not deserve to win Skate Canada. That was Osmondflation and a political fix. Suzuki was the real winner of that competition. Osmond is not even the best in Canada and marked objectively would struggle to score above 140 (SP/LP combined). She has some potential, but is not yet a world class competitor. She should be allowed to develop at her own rate, instead of been promoted beyond what she is currently capable of. Next time she competes internationally, a lot of people will be closely scrutinising her scores to double check for any further Skate Canada type shenanigans
Originally Posted by coolboogie22
Last edited by oksanafan; 12-10-2012 at 10:32 AM.
How could you explain such good results at Skate Canada Challenge this year ? and how could you explain that she win every competition internationnally? If I would talking about Asada or Kim, everyone would be agree with me. But because Osmond is new in the field everyone is bashing her for being great suddenly.
Originally Posted by oksanafan
Kaetlyn Osmond is certainly someone to watch at the world this year and if Akiko Suzuki didn't win Skate Canada this year it's because she was slow in her skating and have a bad skate in the SP. I watch her live at Skate Canada and I can confirm that Suzuki in live is much slower than Osmond in her skating. So, it's normal that Suzuki look less impressive even if she is pretty, she doesn't sell her performance cause of her speed and her spin are not as good as Osmond.
I'd refrain my praise on Osmond till I see more impressive result/results.
I didn't agree with her win at Skate Canada. I don't dispute speed + better spins on Osmond's part (Akiko's spins have always been something she should work on), but I think Osmond got a little too much of a PCS boost on her part for a program that her team even said was packaged to ease her transition into the senior ranks. Akiko only lost by a little over a point, so that made all the difference, IMO.
I also think her score at Skate Canada Challenge is inflated. Domestic events, on the whole, are, so I'm not trying to pick on Kaetlyn by saying this. I don't see her getting 198 internationally. I think a score in the 170s is more reasonable, which would put her within the top 10 pretty easily, but I don't see her challenging for the podium.
Currently on my list (http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...-165-on-the-GP) , she has the 14th highest score in the GP and is No. 8 as far a SBs among the senior level skaters.
That said, I do like Kaetlyn and her skating overall and the judging stuff does not change that view. I think she has a great attitude and outlook. I do expect she will win Canadians easily and has a lot of good things ahead of her.
No. This is my opinion: she's not a world medal skater, considering Yu-Na's, Mao's and Ashley's level (and we have yet to see Kostner), but maybe at 4CC (thinking that Yu-Na won't compete there)... Frankly, I think that her 65 PCS at SC Challenge was absolutely overscored but it's normal, since it's a national competition. But, she's really a good skater, so young and so talented: if just she had a 3F+3T instead of the 3T+3T she could really be a contender, I think it will come down to the PCS...
Originally Posted by Mrs. P
Originally Posted by FSGMT
Forget about the scores for a moment since, as you rightfully pointed out - it's not an international or ISU panel, therefore, any direct comparison to ISU competitions is not going to be reliable though not necessarily irrelevant given that Skate Canada has one of the most rigorous and well respected training program for judges of any ISU members. Unlike many places elsewhere. it typically took a judge 10 years in Canada to reach the national level though for the challenge, it's a level just below national. So some of these judges you see here are in fact far more experienced than some international judges from countries where FS is far less popular.
Now, looking at the protocols posted in #1 :
SP : http://results.skatecanada.ca/2012-2...gesDetails.pdf
For the sake of argument, ignore the scores completely but instead, looking at what's objectively performed by Osmond. In the SP, 3T+3T, 3F - the total BV of this layout is already superior to that of every single woman at this past GPF except Suzuki who is tied here. So realistically, if you put Osmond at the GPF, she would likely be 5th after the SP because her PCS would hold her back against the like of Korpi and Suzuki but she will beat Tuk because she only did a 3T+2T and a less difficult 2nd Triple, a 3Lo, not to mention Gao who bombed. But it will be a 5th place who would still be competitive going to the LP. Given that Tuk got 56.61 for her SP with the above mentioned content and Osmond already beat Tuk this year, one can probably estimate that Osmond would be at least 4 pts higher with a clean SP, placing her again around 60-61 at the GPF, about 4-5 points behind Suzuki after the SP and no more than 7 points behind Asada. So far, I think this comparative assessment would be quite reasonable - to give her only 5th place after the SP at the GPF based on the elements she performed at the Skate Canada Challenge even though she was clean and had more difficult jumps than either #1 or 2, Asada and Wagner.
Now, looking at the FS, Osmond did clean : 3F+2T, 3Lz, 2A+3T, 3S, 3F, 3T+2T+2T, 2A
Breaking it down:
3Lz X 1
3F X 2
3S X 1
3T X 2
2A X 2
2T X 3
Compared to Suzuki at her GPF FS, which took place at the same time : 3F+2T+2Lo, 2A+3T, 3Lo+2T, 3S (note, I am omitting a single Lutz and falls)
Breaking it down:
3F X 1
3Lo X 1
3S X 1
3T X 1
2A X 1
2Lo X 1
2T X 2
Comparing the two by crossing out equivalent jumps, we get a difference in favor of Osmond equal to :
3Lz X 1
3T X 1
2A X 1
Note that I cancel out the Suzuki's 3Lo with Osmond's 2nd 3F given that Suzuki had a 2Lo over an extra 2T Osmond did, so they add up pretty much to the same. Now, that's a difference of over 13 points in BV alone, not even considering the impact of GOE. With a clean skate and we know for a fact that International judges have been giving Osmond decent GOE as well based on two competitions this season, it's fairly reasonable to assume that the total difference in TES would have been greater than 13 points. So even if we benchmark Osmond's PCS based on Tuktamysheva's score, say conservatively around 54-55 despite a clean skate - Suzuki would only have at best a 5-6 points cushion in the PCS. Adding everything all up, including the difference in the SP, Osmond could have easily taken the Bronze at the GPF with her performance at the Skate Canada Challenge. I think this is fairly realistic. Note, I have been very conservative in the estimate here. If Osmond went on and do very well at the 4CC in Osaka, any deficiency in the PCS department would likely be greatly reduced by the time of London World Championship, which I am happy to say I'd be there to witness.
So I think the OP's point is quite valid. Without any consideration to the scores, the elements she is able to perform cleanly in her SP and FS would make her very competitive in the ladies' field today. Simply put, the ladies have had so much trouble getting their acts together, whether it's Suzuki, Wagner or Asada. If the top ladies skates clean, sure, it won't be Osmond's time yet this year - she is new and very young, that's to be expected. However, if the top ladies continue to struggle like they have been all season, the door will be opened. When Lipinski overtook Kwan at the 1997 U.S. Nationals, it was a huge shock but it happened because Michelle Kwan left the door opened by skating poorly. The way these ladies have been skating this year, top 10 for Osmond seems very reasonable and top 5 would certainly be possible as well. And if the top ladies bomb, then surprises may happen again. I don't think ladies filed can continue to afford to have the world champion unable to do a 3Lz or world medalists unable to do 3/3 for much longer, the youngsters are definitely catching up and Osmond isn't alone.
The 3F+3T is quite irrelevant in the FS, vs. the 3T+3T. She is already doing the 3F and 3T twice in the FS. Putting 3F+3T in the SP could be a challenge because what would her stand-alone Triple be then? Her 3Lz isn't consistent enough yet so she will have to reach down to a 3S. Such change just isn't worth it in the SP since the end result is pretty much the same: 3F+3T, 3S vs. 3T+3T, 3F
Originally Posted by FSGMT
leave no stone unturned
You cannot estimate scores for different competitions and for skaters who werent there first place, just because Osmond won them in SC, if thats so Tuktamisheva won everyone in her gps last season, Wagner, Suzuki and Costner, but she didnt at GPF and nobody assumes she would have been the World Champion had she competed in Nice just because she had beated the current World Champion in TEB. It happened with Gold too, people put too much pressure on a new comer.
I saw at SCI practice ice that Osmond was doing 3F+3T and 3Lz+3T. Very huge and with lots of speed. With her getting edge calls at SCI of the 3Lz and 3F, I believe her team has decided to stay with what she is doing very well. She was also doing 3L. I would suspect big changes next year in her jump program. She has speed, jump technique, presence on ice, etc. Finally a skater being judged by what she is doing and not on reputation. From what I understand, she could not compete on JGP last year due to injury. Remember, Gracie Gold has only won US Junior Nats, one JGP, and 2nd at JW. I would bet if she won SCI, there would be no question of her PCS. Osmond is someone outside the top-3 group (Russia, Japan, and US). If you look back at all the treads, if anyone outside these three countries do well, they are bashed because of overscoring and judging scandal (ie. Korpi). Remember, it isn't only one judge giving these high PCS. For Osmond now it has been 3 different panels - Nebelhorn, SCI, and SC Challenge. Even as a Junior skater before the jumps became consistent, Osmond has done well in PCS (most times above TES). Has anyone actually seen her SC Challenge videos?
Since this is now a fan fest would suggest that Kaetlyn's detractors find some other spot to slam her.
I know it wasnt a fan fest originally so I understand past comments.
That being said - I am not yet a fan of hers. Will have to continue to watch her develop. However, I am full of admiration for what she has done so far and wish her the very best in the next few years. She has a very pleasant style and is a vivacious skater so if her TES stands up she can certainly land on the podium outside of Canada.
Given this is a fan thread now, I'll keep my comments to a minimum. But I will say this: I think she is definitely worthy of a fan thread. As I said, she shows a lot of promise and talent.
So let me put it this way for the sake of this thread:
I can understand why she got 67 PCS at Skate Canada Challenge. She likely stood out a lot relative to the other Challenge competitors. That's a compliment to her. The fact is that most of the Canadian ladies, even its top ladies have been mediocre at best. So when you have someone like Kaetlyn come along, it's easy to want to give her good scores, especially when compared to others.
However, when she is going to be against the likes of the ENTIRE world field, including Yuna, Mao Carolina and others she hasn't competed against yet, she will not stand out as much because all those skaters have speed, presence and the other things that she has. That's why I think she will more likely get PCS scores along the lines of 55 or so. I still think 59.
That said, if she dazzles and other falter, she will have an opportunity to rise up the ranks. We shall see!
Yes, I meant that with a SP with 3F+3T and 3Lz could really put her among the world medals contenders, she has to improve her 3Lz, that's the key (I think): Yu-Na became WC and OGM without the 3Lo, she just has to show consistent 3F and 3Lz. And, I would really like so watch her performances at SC Challenge, where can I find the videos?
Originally Posted by wallylutz
I have not seen the videos yet, but based on comments at the ISU board, it sounded as if Kaetlyn had her best LP skate so far. That would be confirmed by her scores relative to the other skaters 13+ in the SP and 28+ in the LP. It would be nice to see the videos, but since Skatebuzz is charging a $19.99 membership fee to view streams of competitions like "Challenge", videos on Youtube may be less likely. I assume the video of Kaetlyn are temporarily archived at Skatebuzz (1 month)?