Half time show: Thoughts from the season so far - MEN

[pitterpatter]

Japan: I think as long as the non-Worlds guys are sent to 4CC for an opportunity improve on their SB, then I think we can expect all those guys to be back for the pre-Olympic GP next fall. Even if some of them don't get a 4CC assignment, their SB from this season should be enough for them to get two events fairly easy. Basically as long as Oda/Machida/Mura stays in the top 24 they are golden.

I think the most vulnerable person for Worlds is Kozuka, which pains me to say as I really like his programs this season and he was a delight to watch at Skate America. Kozuka may have better PCS than Oda, but Oda can make up any deficit by hitting all the jumps and racking up the TES. And as far as face-to-face match up at Japanese Nationals, Kozuka has only beaten Oda once, when he won 2011 Nationals. I don't think Oda is as out of the running as some think.

Interesting take on Oda, it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. I really don't know where he fits into the picture, because even though he's been skating well, he's the only one out of the 6 Japanese men to not have won a gold GP medal. I still think even 4th place will be a battle for him. Kozuka's Worlds spot should be safe, he's done well enough this season to show that he belongs there and his GPF points total was in the same ballpark range as the top four.

Who they're going to send to 4CC is also a big question. In past years I believe they've sent 1st, 2nd and 4th, but you'd think they'd be looking to give their other skaters more chances this time around. The problem is that 4CC is in Japan this year, so they'll be wanting to send their stars. I don't know if Hanyu would even want to go, since making a trip back to Japan in February could impact his training time with Orser.

[pangtongfan]

I have a feeling Machida will finish 4th ahead of Oda, and could even take the 3rd spot if Kozuka makes any mistakes. Mura could even finish above Oda. Oda is on the way down IMO, and even skating well there isnt anything he can really do to steam the tide with the upcoming depth in Japan.

[lakeside]

There's no point in discussing what you wrote because you have no idea what you're talking about. Especially the ridiculous claims of those jumps being <<. Here's the thing about jumps, to give some eduction to everyone on the forum who hasn't already heard me say it 100 times - a Quad is actually 3.25 rotations in the air at minimum. A Triple is 2.25 rotations in the air. A Double is 1.25 rotations in the air. Most jumps pre-rotate .5 turns on the ice before leaving and there is a .25 leeway on the landing. NO quad jump is actually ever 4 rotations in the air.

This is your definition, nothing in the ISU rulebook says that. Plus, I took screenshot at the point that each skater started his/her jump, so s/he already got the 1/2 pre-rotation. Still, Takahashi did not make it to 3 3/4 or 1 3/4 rotations when he landed some of the jumps.

Ok, maybe you’re an expert and I’m ridiculous and have no idea. Then look at this. What does this comparison show?

3) Takahashi’s 3a < 2t <.
Since his 3a was shot with a special camera angle and nobody else at GPF was from that camera angle, I did some research and found Gachinski’s 3a with the same camera angle. It’s clear enough you can see what a fully rotated 3a should be.

Gachinski’s 3a (fully rotated) vs. Takahashi’s 3a (under-rotated).
Gachinski’s takeoff vs. Takahashi’s takeoff, very similar.
But Gachinski’s landing vs. Takahashi’s landing.

If Takahashi did not under-rotate that 3a, then it means Gachinski over-rotated his 3a? No way, Gachinski just fully rotated his 3a, no over-rotation. Takahashi OTOH missed more than 1/4 rotation and it should have been 3a <.

Also, this 2t <. I retook the takeoff screenshots according to you. Still, this is a URed jump.

Takahashi’s 2t <.
Takeoff and landing.

[Becki]

Interesting take on Oda, it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. I really don't know where he fits into the picture, because even though he's been skating well, he's the only one out of the 6 Japanese men to not have won a gold GP medal. I still think even 4th place will be a battle for him. Kozuka's Worlds spot should be safe, he's done well enough this season to show that he belongs there and his GPF points total was in the same ballpark range as the top four.

Who they're going to send to 4CC is also a big question. In past years I believe they've sent 1st, 2nd and 4th, but you'd think they'd be looking to give their other skaters more chances this time around. The problem is that 4CC is in Japan this year, so they'll be wanting to send their stars. I don't know if Hanyu would even want to go, since making a trip back to Japan in February could impact his training time with Orser.

Oda is a sentimental favourite of mine. He has all the qualities in the world to become a World Champion (yes I truly believe so), yet he always manages to zakay himself off the World podium. I really hope she skates the SOHL to earn a sport on the World Team, and finally win the World Medal that has eluded him so many times already.

[silverlake22]

See Oda is a good jumper but his quad is not that consistent, so in that sense, he likely won't be able to beat out Kozuka on TES, I tend to think. I agree that he'll probably be 4th or 5th at Nats, depending on how Mura skates.

[pangtongfan]

It is true Oda should have a couple World medals by now and had some lost opportunities do not remembering how to count, but that is in the distant past now. Even his best skating isnt going to get the marks needed now, his window has passed. Only Takahashi might retire after Sochi, so his situation in Japan isnt going to improve anytime soon. I dont blame him for skating until Sochi atleast, who would give up on a chance to go to the Olympics again, no matter how miniscule, but I dont see him being a factor even for the Japanese World team again. If anyone shakes up the established trio it will be someone younger who is still improving like Machida or Mura, not someone who was already peaked, did not bring a World medal back to garner any favor with the fed., and who doesnt have a reliable quad, particularly high GOE, or good PCS anymore.

[bibi24]

Here's the thing about jumps, to give some eduction to everyone on the forum who hasn't already heard me say it 100 times - a Quad is actually 3.25 rotations in the air at minimum. A Triple is 2.25 rotations in the air. A Double is 1.25 rotations in the air. Most jumps pre-rotate .5 turns on the ice before leaving and there is a .25 leeway on the landing. NO quad jump is actually ever 4 rotations in the air.

4T and 4S pre-rotate more than 4Loop, 4Flip, and 4Lutz, excluding the axel.

[Blades of Passion]

This is your definition, nothing in the ISU rulebook says that.

Nothing in the ISU rulebook defines "rotation" to begin with. It's a big flaw in a judging system that is supposed to be very precise. What I am saying is accurate, though.

Also, this 2t <. I retook the takeoff screenshots according to you. Still, this is a URed jump.

Takahashi’s 2t <.
Takeoff and landing.

You're still not getting it. A double jump is 1.25 rotations in the air. Look at the point where he took off - landing 1.25 rotations past that points means his skate would be facing just to the right of the yellow asian lettering on the boards. His skate is facing to the left of the yellowing lettering, though - he rotated more than 1.25 rotations in the air. There's not even a question of it being underrotated (if your picture accurately displays where he landed...he may have landed earlier than that, although the exact position doesn't really matter because I looked at the jump video already and he was definitely in the clear, whatever the exact degree of rotation past 1.25 may have been).

[Blades of Passion]

4T and 4S pre-rotate more than 4Loop, 4Flip, and 4Lutz, excluding the axel.

4T, 4S, and 4Loop all pre-rotate just about the same, a half turn should be considered normal and they are always going to pre-rotate a quarter turn at the very least, although the 4T can potentially pre-rotate more than any other jump (via bad technique) because of the skater spinning into the jump on their toepick. The pre-rotation of the Axel is quite variable, but up to a half turn is fine there too and it's normal to pre-rotate a quarter turn at least.

The Flip and Lutz are the most variable. Some skaters don't pre-rotate at all, with their toepick directly leaving the ice straight in. Some skaters have even had wonky pick-in technique where their toepick leaves the ice away from the rotation direction of the jump, making the jump harder. If you look at Kurt Browning's Lutz, that's what he did. It's also why he had so much trouble with that jump. Some of his Triple Lutzes were almost getting the amount of rotation in the air that should be considered the minimum for a Quad.

Anyway, with the Flip and Lutz, it's still fine to pre-rotate a half turn on the toepick. This technique is far more common in women than it is men, because their bodies just aren't built the same way. To do a Quad Flip or Quad Lutz, you almost HAVE to pre-rotate on the toepick like that. In general I would say a bit of pre-rotation (up to a quarter turn) is ideal for the Flip and Lutz...doing less than that just makes the jump harder on yourself. Yuzuru Hanyu doesn't pre-rotate on his Lutz at all and that's why I think he sometimes gets a bit off in the air on this jump.

[itoja]

If Takahashi did not under-rotate that 3a, then it means Gachinski over-rotated his 3a?

Once again:

Do you know what UR means? It means 1/4 or 90, i.e. if the landing is within |_, then things are fine.

First, why are you showing this pictures as Takahashi's landing, if he clearly is still in the air? :
http://www5.picturepush.com/photo/a/.../11687248.jpeg
http://www1.picturepush.com/photo/a/.../11705609.jpeg

The first picture of his 3A landing, you have showed http://www3.picturepush.com/photo/a/.../11669356.jpeg was not good enough for your purpose?
But thanks to your attempt of manipulating we have the sequence:
http://www5.picturepush.com/photo/a/.../11705603.jpeg
http://www1.picturepush.com/photo/a/.../11705609.jpeg
http://www3.picturepush.com/photo/a/.../11669356.jpeg
which exactly shows Takahashi did more than 3/4 rotation in his 3A.

And what has Gachinski's perfectly rotated 3A to do with this?

[deedee1]

Sorry to say but to be honest I am getting tired of hearing which one was URed and which one not, or who deserved higher PCS and who should not after every. single. competition. Competitions are not for the very limited two or three or four skaters. I would appreciate it if some of you guys could show some respect to other skaters, too, for their hard work, improvements and accomplishments, please.
Placements or total points are not all about when 'we' the skating fans, or at least myself, want to talk about and enjoy post-comp discussions with GS members here, you know. though I can understand it may matter to some of you.

P.S. Besides, who cares/remembers which skater actually won the 2012-13 season's GPF?, say, after Sochi Olympic Games.

[Olympia]

I just keep rooting for Daisuke to do well. (Hope I used the correct emoticon.)

It always makes me happy when Oda has a good outcome; I find his skating very appealing for some reason. Maybe it's because his jumps are almost as big as he is, but I think also that his movements are both crisp and graceful.

[deedee1]

(Hope I used the correct emoticon.)

hahaha, it's a bit uncharacteristic of you to use that emoticon, isn't it?

[SkateFiguring]

I think Kozuka will be one to rise after GPF, possibly winning the Japanese title and maybe another Worlds medal.

[demarinis5]

Seriously lakeside what point are you trying to make here. You posted your thoughts on the matter, other folks disagreed. Everyone has a right to their opinion. Continuously posting your opinion regarding Dai's UR does not prove a thing or change the fact that Dai won at GPF. I am not speaking as a Dai fan here but as a general poster on GS. This UR business against Dai is getting tired. Back on topic: I hope you are right SF about Kozuka. I am hoping he will peak at JN and Worlds too.