Seeing similar posts in the ladies, thread, I thought I'd compile a list of the average scores of the internationally competitive American men competing in the senior field at Nationals from this season. Please note, the scores used in the average calculations are from international events (GPs, Senior Bs, and JGPs) and qualifying events (in this case just sectionals, as none of the men who competed internationally this season skated at Regionals). The number in parentheses represents the number of events that were taken to obtain the average listed. I haven't looked at the scores of the domestic skaters who did not have any internationals this season, but if someone else wants to do that and update the list, feel free! I figured those men with internationals are likely to be the top 12 men at Nationals in theory though, which is why I did this. I was interested to see the breakdown and think Nationals could really be wide open this season!
Average International Scores of Senior Men at Nationals:
1.) 228.16 Max Aaron (3)
2.) 222.81 Richard Dornbush (3)
3.) 220.80 Ross Miner (3)
4.) 219.49 Jeremy Abbott (2)
5.) 213.76 Joshua Farris (3)*
6.) 212.40 Keegan Messing (3)
7.) 207.98 Adam Rippon (2)
8.) 207.02 Stephen Carriere (3)
9.) 207.24 Armin Mahbanoozadeh (3)
10.) 196.18 Douglas Razzano (2)
11.) 194.10 Jason Brown (3)*
12.) 181.98 Harrison Choate (3)*
* these skaters average scores were compiled partly/entirely from junior events (3 out of 3 for Farris and Brown, 2 out of 3 for Choate) which are 30 seconds shorter and do not contain a choreographic step sequence, which has a base value of 2.00 points.
I think looking at the averages is pretty exciting. It would appear Max Aaron is definitely a contender for the podium, that "the big 3" (Abbott, Miner, Dornbush) are pretty neck-in-neck in terms of average international scores right now, and that Farris and Messing may pull upsets by beating out some of the guys who did well last year like Rippon, Mahbanoozadeh, and Razzano. Messing's scores had a very wide variance, especially the FS scores, so he's harder to predict, but Farris has scored above 211 points at all of his internationals this fall, and considering those were junior events, in senior score equivalents that's more like around 215 points, and that was with giving away quite a few points at all 3 of those competitions. A little surprising is Jason Brown's failure to break 200 points yet internationally this season. Obviously, it's due to his making mistakes, as when he skates cleanly he is capable of much higher scores, and usually he skates well at Nationals, but it is a little surprising to see him so far down this list.
So at this point I would say, main contenders for the podium are:
Most threatening/likely darkhorses to wind up on the podium should the above men falter, make the final warmup group/top 6 regardless of what they do:
Likely to finish in the top 10, but could place higher or even podium should they skate better than they have this fall/others struggle, etc:
(NOTE: Razzano's average score is higher than Brown's but Brown seems to be on the upswing and usually skates well at Nationals whereas I was kind of shocked by Razzano's 5th place at Nationals last year and think his international scores indicate he is a 2nd or 3rd tier American, thus why I left him out of the top 10).
Likely to wind out the penultimate group?
Feel free to share your thoughts!