Kaetlyn Osmond 2013 World Champion?

[guanchi]

Oops, sorry Kaetlyn
If I'm going to critique, better get your name right

[Mrs. P]

Well I think a good reason to be excited is Kaetlyn is undefeated since turning senior, winning every senior competition she has entered.

1st victory Nebelhorn,
2nd victory Skate Canada,
3rd victory Challenge,
4th victory Nationals.

Can she keep her undefeated streak going?

If she keeps her undefeated streak going and she can win 4cc , she will undoubtedly be the favorite to win gold at worlds, people.

GO KAETLYN GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes it's great she's undefeated, but as many others pointed out, she has yet to face most of the top front runners. In essence, the top girls she has beaten so far is Akiko Suzuki, Liza Tuktmysheva and Kanako Murakami (SC) and Adelina Sotnikova (Nebelhorn).

She has relatively little competition in Canada, so her wins in either Skate Canada Challenge or Canadian Nationals were not that surprising.

She has yet to face Ashley Wagner, the reigning 4CC champ; Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Yuna Kim and Alena Leonova (though she isn't having a great season).

Plus the U.S. girls, either Gracie or Mirai, is capable of doing betterl. I don't think Kaetlyn can just walk in and win it all. She will have some tough competition at 4CC and Worlds.

Again, like IP says, the girl has promise, but let's see how she does at 4CC and Worlds first.

[vera01]

She has yet to face Ashley Wagner, the reigning 4CC champ; Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Yuna Kim, Elizaveta Tuktmysheva, Alena Leonova (though she isn't having a great season).

Plus the U.S. girls, either Gracie or Mirai, is capable of doing betterl. I don't think Kaetlyn can just walk in and win it all. She will have some tough competition at 4CC and Worlds.

Again, like IP says, the girl has promise, but let's see how she does at 4CC and Worlds first.

Actually, Kaetlyn got a higher score than Tuktamysheva at SC. Tuktamysheva placed fourth at SC.

Gracie is likely to earn higher TES score than Kaetlyn's, but then Gracie's PCS won't be high as Kaetlyn's

[Mrs. P]

Actually, Kaetlyn got a higher score than Tuktamysheva at SC. Tuktamysheva placed fourth at SC.

Gracie is likely to earn higher TES score than Kaetlyn's, but then Gracie's PCS won't be high as Kaetlyn's

Yeah, I forgot about that. Edited my post as such.

As for PCS, though Gracie does not have the CH, IN and PE skills Kaetlyn has, she does have a ton of transitions and good skating skills. Her PCS in Russia was 58.10 compared to 59.61 for Kaetlyn, FWIW.

But my point about redemption applies. Gracie and Liza both did very poorly at SC and they have had since had better competitions. Both can rack up the TES points.

[wallylutz]

Yeah, I forgot about that. Edited my post as such.

As for PCS, though Gracie does not have the CH, IN and PE skills Kaetlyn has, she does have a ton of transitions and good skating skills. Her PCS in Russia was 58.10 compared to 59.61 for Kaetlyn, FWIW.

But my point about redemption applies. Gracie and Liza both did very poorly at SC and they have had since had better competitions. Both can rack up the TES points.

FYI, Kaetlyn already beat Gracie & Elizaveta at Skate Canada. And Leonova won't be going to Worlds, so no point to compare her. We will know more after 4CC, that's assuming Wagner will make it through the U.S. Nationals because her spot is not guaranteed - you know how the U.S. Nationals work, it can be quite cruel for a skater who simply had a bad day. Asada is her own biggest enemy, she pretty much determines her own fate but she will need her jumps landed cleanly or she will be at the mercy of the panel depending on whether they are lenient or not.

[Mrs. P]

FYI, Kaetlyn already beat Gracie & Elizaveta at Skate Canada. And Leonova won't be going to Worlds, so no point to compare her. We will know more after 4CC, that's assuming Wagner will make it through the U.S. Nationals because her spot is not guaranteed - you know how the U.S. Nationals work, it can be quite cruel for a skater who simply had a bad day. Asada is her own biggest enemy, she pretty much determines her own fate but she will need her jumps landed cleanly or she will be at the mercy of the panel depending on whether they are lenient or not.

1.) We don't know for sure if Leonova will or won't be at Worlds. They haven't named that team yet --it depends on how Nikol does at Euros.
2.) Yes I already noted that she has beat Gracie and Elizaveta. But that doesn't mean that it's a guarantee that she will definitely beat them from here on out. Both are capable of high TES scores. Both have had time to refine their programs.
3.) Wagner has been quite consistent all season long; but yes her spot is not guaranteed.

My only point to say that just because she won her competitions so far means does not mean she's a shoo-in to win Worlds because, as I said she has yet to face a number of key competitors.

I agree, let's see how she does at 4CC. Another data point is always good.

[mskater93]

Among the newcomers to the senior scene, she beat Gracie when she was at her absolute worst this season and Liza when she was still recovering from summer injury. If both go to Worlds and are clean, their PCS will continue to rise as a measure of appreciation of their cleanness and the difficulty they include in their programs (if they both execute all planned content the PE mark will be quite good as the "E" part will be outstanding with that difficulty). Sotnikova has had focus issues this season and is making "stupid" mistakes that are precluding her from being where she COULD be, but she should not be counted out. Kaetlyn will need to be clean to maintain or improve upon the PCS she got at SC, as I would suspect that if she has a so-so outing (ie sloppy or a couple mistakes), her PCS won't be that high as she's currently building a reputation regarding her skating so her starting point isn't the same as say Mao Asada who had the 7th best TES at Worlds last year and the 2nd highest PCS (or something like that).
In general, of those considered the top skaters, Kim, Asada, Wagner, and Kostner probably have about a one mistake advantage right now based on where they are scoring PCS-wise.

But, as we saw in the US Nationals Junior Ladies SP last night, sometimes the tech crew puts the ice slippery side up for a warm up group, so anything can happen....

[Skater Boy]

I would think skaters like Mao, Kostner, suanuki, Wagner all have at least one major mistake lead and Kim two major mistakes. Kaetlyn will have to be clean to hold off the next tier ofladies too - Gold or Mira or Gao et al, the Russians, Murakami, etc

[kwanatic]

She's got her work cut out for her.

Kaetlyn has done well this year but like someone said, she has yet to face the big name/medal favorites. Skating on the same ice as Kim, Kostner, Asada and Wagner will not be the same as going against the field at Skate Canada (where her only real competition was Suzuki) or the names she beat at Nebelhorn, Challenge or nationals. Worlds is a much bigger and tougher stage to deliver on and a lot will be on the line...

[chuckm]

The start order for the Worlds SP is based on ISU World Standing. The ladies with the top 12 World Ranking will skate in the final two groups for the SP. Kaetlyn's current rank (prior to Euros and 4CC) is in the mid 40s. Even if she skates well at 4CC, she won't move up much higher because the ladies above her in rank will also get points from 4CC/Euros.

So she will skate in the earlier SP groups, where the PCS scores tend to be lower. She must score well in the SP so as to get into the top 12, putting her in the last two groups to skate in the FS. To medal, she'd have to be in the final group (top 6 after the SP).

[os168]

The start order for the Worlds SP is based on ISU World Standing. The ladies with the top 12 World Ranking will skate in the final two groups for the SP. Kaetlyn's current rank (prior to Euros and 4CC) is in the mid 40s. Even if she skates well at 4CC, she won't move up much higher because the ladies above her in rank will also get points from 4CC/Euros.

So she will skate in the earlier SP groups, where the PCS scores tend to be lower. She must score well in the SP so as to get into the top 12, putting her in the last two groups to skate in the FS. To medal, she'd have to be in the final group (top 6 after the SP).

This brings up a very interesting situation, I think Yuna is currently ranked something like 47 below Rachel Flatt and above Kaetlyn so she is likely to skate before everyone since Kaetlyn's ranking will likely to rise after taking part in 4CC, which Yuna can't do due to the Special Olympics responsibilities.

[chuckm]

Yu-Na is the reigning Olympic Champion. I am sure that if she skates as well as she did at NRW (3z+3t, 3f, 2a) she will score as high as she did there (72.27, with PCS scores 8.69, 8.31, 8.88, 8.75, 8.94).

Kaetlyn's last international appearance was at SC, where she did 3t+3t, 3f, 2a and scored 60.56 (6.68, 6.61, 6.96, 6.86, 7.07).

[wallylutz]

The start order for the Worlds SP is based on ISU World Standing. The ladies with the top 12 World Ranking will skate in the final two groups for the SP. Kaetlyn's current rank (prior to Euros and 4CC) is in the mid 40s. Even if she skates well at 4CC, she won't move up much higher because the ladies above her in rank will also get points from 4CC/Euros.

So she will skate in the earlier SP groups, where the PCS scores tend to be lower. She must score well in the SP so as to get into the top 12, putting her in the last two groups to skate in the FS. To medal, she'd have to be in the final group (top 6 after the SP).

Hey Chuck, I think it would help this speculation if you actually do a reality check of your hypothesis.

Here is World Standing for Ladies :

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsladies.htm

Osmond is currently 48th but many of the skaters above her will not be going to Worlds. First, the maximum number of extra points that Osmond can pick up at 4CC is 840 - by winning the event. 988 + 840 = 1828

So let's eliminate those who will definitely and most likely won't be at Worlds from the list :

- Rachael Flatt
- Bingwa Geng
- Hae Jin Kim
- Yretha SILETE
- Risa SHOJI
- Yuki NISHINO
- Satoko MIYAHARA
- Kristina ZASEEVA
- Caroline ZHANG
- Isabelle OLSSON
- Cynthia PHANEUF
- Gerli LIINAMÄE
- Miki ANDO
- Sarah HECKEN
- Polina SHELEPEN
- Amelie LACOSTE
- Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA or Alena Leonova
- Haruka IMAI
- Agnes ZAWADZKI
- Julia LIPNITSKAIA
- Ksenia MAKAROVA
- Kiira KORPI

48 - 22 = 26th already

We are not done yet.

Let's now adjust Osmond's ranking after a score boost from 4cc, her score going in the Worlds will be about 1650-1828. Let's readjust the list from those who currently have less than 1828 but based on the previous Euro/4CC results, will likely not surpass this total after their respective Continental Championship :

- Yu Na Kim (will not go to 4CC)
- Kexin Zhang (Score = 1072, will most likely below Osmond in total score after 4CC)
- Sonia Lafuente (currently 1325 but finished 15th at least year's Euro)
- Monika SIMANCIKOVA (Currently 1342 but finished 14th at last year's Euro)
- Natalia POPOVA (Currently 1351 but finished 12th at last year's Euro)
- Jenna MCCORKELL (Currently 1492 but finished only 18th at last year's Euro)

26 - 6 = 20

We are still not done yet.

Now we need to adjust for those higher on the list but due to the limited number of spots their federation has at Worlds, will not be able to make it.

USA : (Gold, Gao, Nagasu, Wagner, Czisny) - any 3 since USA only has 2 spots for Worlds
Sweden : (Helgesson X 2 ) - any 1 since Sweden only has 1 spot for Worlds

20 - 4 = 16th

At approximately 16th place, she will be randomly drawn in the 3rd Group. Note that the 4th and 5th groups are randomized such that top seed skater could go in the before last group, but not necessarily the last group. For example, someone who skated 18th on the 3rd group at the 2012 Worlds was immediately followed by Mao Asada, the #19 or first skater of the 4th group and Alena Leonova, the #20 skater or the second skater of the 4th group.

Thanks for brining up this great point Chuck, but a close examination of the situation shows that this is a minor concern as being in the 3rd Group really isn't that bad since they will immediately be followed by the top rank skaters, so with luck, judges will in fact be able to see Osmond just before top seeded skaters within less than 20-30 minutes as opposed to hours after + Zamboni break. Besides, with the Worlds in Canada, judges will naturally watch the homecountry favorite more intensely, thus less likely to forget about her if she skates well. And of course in order to skate in the 3rd Group at Worlds SP, she will need to do well at 4CC, essentially make it to the podium. Put it this way, if she can't even podium at 4CC, what are her chances of making to the podium at Worlds?

[wallylutz]

Yu-Na is the reigning Olympic Champion. I am sure that if she skates as well as she did at NRW (3z+3t, 3f, 2a) she will score as high as she did there (72.27, with PCS scores 8.69, 8.31, 8.88, 8.75, 8.94).

If Yu Na skates well, the early order in the SP wouldn't matter very much. But if she didn't skate well, that will be a long way to climb. A big shot who skates poorly in the last groups will see substantial support in their PCS but a big shot who didn't skate well in early group will often get a lower PCS than if they had skated later. Case in point : Lu Chen, the 1995 World Champion, 1996 & reigning World Silver Medalist at the time and 1994 Olympic Bronze Medalist failed to even qualify for the Free Skate at the 1997 Worlds after she bombed her SP in the earlier group.

[Krislite]

If Yu Na skates well, the early order in the SP wouldn't matter very much. But if she didn't skate well, that will be a long way to climb. A big shot who skates poorly in the last groups will see substantial support in their PCS but a big shot who didn't skate well in early group will often get a lower PCS than if they had skated later. Case in point : Lu Chen, the 1995 World Champion, 1996 & reigning World Silver Medalist at the time and 1994 Olympic Bronze Medalist failed to even qualify for the Free Skate at the 1997 Worlds after she bombed her SP in the earlier group.

If Yuna skates well, she can go first and it wouldn't matter. Shen/Zhao skated first in the SP in Vancouver and still won the SP.