Kaetlyn Osmond 2013 World Champion?

shine · Jan 21, 2013

Nadia01 said:
Harder jumps, good spins, speed and presentation.

Why? You think they just hand out Jr Worlds Medals to anybody who shows up for the comp?

Speed? It's hard to judge. Osmond seems to carry a lot of speed when she skates, WHILE doing transitions, although she does tend to fizzle out toward the end. That's something she needs to work on but considering the difficulty of her prograsm, it's more understandable. I know Kim is speedy, but Asada never strikes me as particularly fast. She was pretty average the last time I saw her. Spins? Kim is not known for her spins exactly and I don't see how's she's much better than Osmond. Asada has very good positions in her spins, so yes. Can you be more specific about why Kim and Asada's presentation were better? Or did you want to just use the argument "why, because they were Jr World Medalists" and stop there?

You are the one who keeps insisting that Osmond "lives her choreography". I don't see that at all. I think Yuna and Mao lived their choreography when they were 16-17, while Osmond is just being young and happy but somewhat juniorish. I'd love to have Osmond prove me wrong by doing programs that are vastly different in tone and mood than this season's, to show that she's capable of a wider range than just a bubbly new kid.

Yeah, to each his own. You might have missed her LP, the new kid's Carmen is not exactly bubbly. I don't think you recognize the difficult transitions that Osmond packs in her programs either.I'm done debating here.

Until that happens, it's premature to call Osmond vastly superior to Yuna and Mao artistically.

Until what happens? Their skating has already happened. What do we need to wait for?

BTW, did you re-read my post? I don't think you would've needed to say many of the things if you had.

jenaj · Jan 21, 2013

If Osmond wins Worlds 2013, it would be a case for going back to 6.0 scoring. But I think the judges will find a way to keep that from happening...

Krislite · Jan 21, 2013

jenaj said:
If Osmond wins Worlds 2013, it would be a case for going back to 6.0 scoring. But I think the judges will find a way to keep that from happening...

This thread should be pinned until Worlds. I would love to come back to this discussion once the results are in. :biggrin:

Right now, though, I think it's quite premature to declare her World Champion.

Mrs. P · Jan 21, 2013

Reposting my earlier post:

Okay, stats time!

Here's the list of ladies who medaled at their first Worlds since 1961:

1990 Holly Cook, USA, bronze. This would be Cook's only time at Worlds.
1991 Tonya Harding, USA, silver. Harding never medaled again at Worlds.
1991 Nancy Kerrigan, USA, bronze Kerrigan got a silver in 1992 Worlds.
1993 Oksana Baiul, UKR, gold. This would be her only Worlds.
1999 Julia Soldatova, RUS, bronze. This would be her only Worlds for Russia. She would also skate for Belarus, but she would only place 18th.
2006 Kimmie Meissner, USA, gold. Meissner would never medal again at Worlds.
2007 Mao Asada, JPN, silver. Asada won in 2008 and 2010. But she was OTP in 2009, 2011, 2012.
2007 Yuna Kim, KOR, bronze. Kim has medaled at every Worlds she competed in -- bronze in 2008; gold in 2009; silver in 2010 and 2011

So consider this out of eight woman who won medals in their Worlds debut:

Three or 38 percent of those debut winners (Kerrigan, Asada and Kim) medaled again.
Half of them have Olympics medals. (Kerrigan, Baiul, Asada and Kim)
Only two won Olympic Gold (Baiul and Kim)

Most of the Olympic/recurring Worlds winners had respectable top 5 or top 10 debuts before winning their string of medals.

And more precisely, out of 156 possible medals, only 5.1 percent of them were earned by skaters making their World debut.

And it's also noting that only two skaters, Oksana Baiul and Kimmie Meissner managed to win in their debut, so Katelyn would be part of an elite group if she managed to win.

And out of all the Olympic medalists from 1964 on, only 10 percent of them medaled in their Worlds debut.

So, if Kaetlyn doesn't get a medal or win Worlds on her first try, it doesn't mean gloom and doom at all. In fact, it might be better to rise up the ranks slowly.

macy · Jan 21, 2013

This is not going to happen unless EVERYONE bombs. Kaetlyn is a very impressive and talented skater, but she needs finesse and refining. Her movements are still a bit juniorish and some of her positions could be better. She has great potential and I see her, with 2 clean skates, top six, but there is no way she will get past skaters like mao, ashley, yuna, etc. She also doesn't have the experience or extensive exposure to international judges yet. She could be world champion, just not this year.

drivingmissdaisy · Jan 21, 2013

macy said:
This is not going to happen unless EVERYONE bombs. Kaetlyn is a very impressive and talented skater, but she needs finesse and refining. Her movements are still a bit juniorish and some of her positions could be better. She has great potential and I see her, with 2 clean skates, top six, but there is no way she will get past skaters like mao, ashley, yuna, etc. She also doesn't have the experience or extensive exposure to international judges yet. She could be world champion, just not this year.

I 100% agree with this. Yuna, Caro, Mao, and Ashley would each have to have multiple falls or major errors for a clean Kaetlyn to move ahead. I also think she is a bit juniorish, although very mature given her age. The top ladies are inconsistent enough that I wouldn't be surprised if Kaetlyn won bronze, but so many things would have to go right for her to actually win.

Tesla · Jan 21, 2013

I hope she doesn't crumble under the pressure. It's one thing to come out blazing in the GP as a relative unknown and to win Canadian Nationals, which was pretty much a foregone conclusion, but Worlds is a whole other pressure cooker. I think if she places top 10, that would be a fantastic start. No need to push her higher than necessary and adding ever more pressure.

LauraV · Jan 21, 2013

I have been impressed by Kaetlyn's skating to date. She is fun to watch.

I understand that a successful season will breed enthusiasm for a skater, but why anyone would want to burden a first year senior with medal expectations at her first Worlds is beyond me.

I hope she skates well at Worlds. As for her placing - let the chips fall wherever they may. Jmho, of course.

kwanatic · Jan 21, 2013

This is total deja vu from last season. I feel like I read very similar posts last year regarding Gracie Gold and how superior she would be to everyone in the US. It's like people are so anxious for the new talent to be at the top they want to bypass the process of getting there.

Kaetlyn is by far my favorite newbie senior this year. IMO, she's light years better than Gracie and Julia (the other two hyped newbies). She has nice jumps, decent speed and spins, great basics and that star quality spark. But the best thing about her is I find her to be a very engaging performer who has a firm grasp on interpreting music/character and delivering choreography to great effect...that's something both Gracie and Julia are lacking. Kaetlyn is a bit rough around the edges and needs some refinement and other work but, to me, she's ahead of the pack in terms of having the total package. I really like her and I'm looking forward to watching her make her mark heading into Sochi.

Having said that, I think it's a bit early to be pushing her to the front of the pack. Is she the best in Canada? Oh hells yeah...by a loooong shot. Is she the best in the world? Um, no...again, not by a long shot. Does she have a shot at the podium? Better than most of the debuting participants but not better than the returning ones. A lot would have to happen to have Kaetlyn land on the podium this year. That's not to say it won't happen but, given the depth of the field (Kim, Kostner, Asada, Wagner, Suzuki, Korpi) a fair number of skaters would have to tank in order for that to happen. I definitely see her in the top 6 if she's able to deliver which is an incredible placement for a debut showing, but, to me anyway, her winning or even making the podium isn't very likely this year.

gimble · Jan 21, 2013

Osmond seems quite mature and confident. Who knows, I also see her in top 10 for sure, and even top 5.

This year's Worlds would certainly be exciting and interesting to watch -- with the veterans and the debutantes ...

ImaginaryPogue · Jan 21, 2013

kwanatic said:
This is total deja vu from last season. I feel like I read very similar posts last year regarding Gracie Gold and how superior she would be to everyone in the US. It's like people are so anxious for the new talent to be at the top they want to bypass the process of getting there.

Kaetlyn is by far my favorite newbie senior this year. IMO, she's light years better than Gracie and Julia (the other two hyped newbies). She has nice jumps, decent speed and spins, great basics and that star quality spark. But the best thing about her is I find her to be a very engaging performer who has a firm grasp on interpreting music/character and delivering choreography to great effect...that's something both Gracie and Julia are lacking. Kaetlyn is a bit rough around the edges and needs some refinement and other work but, to me, she's ahead of the pack in terms of having the total package. I really like her and I'm looking forward to watching her make her mark heading into Sochi.

Having said that, I think it's a bit early to be pushing her to the front of the pack. Is she the best in Canada? Oh hells yeah...by a loooong shot. Is she the best in the world? Um, no...again, not by a long shot. Does she have a shot at the podium? Better than most of the debuting participants but not better than the returning ones. A lot would have to happen to have Kaetlyn land on the podium this year. That's not to say it won't happen but, given the depth of the field (Kim, Kostner, Asada, Wagner, Suzuki, Korpi) a fair number of skaters would have to tank in order for that to happen. I definitely see her in the top 6 if she's able to deliver which is an incredible placement for a debut showing, but, to me anyway, her winning or even making the podium isn't very likely this year.

Thank you. It's gotten to the point where discussing newcomers means we engage in excitement (look what they can do) to buzz (what else can they do) to hype (they will do everything) to backlash (they're overrated) within the space of a season, which is enough to make my head spin.

Osmond is an exciting talent with loads of potential. Lets see where she goes, shall we?

Mrs. P · Jan 21, 2013

ImaginaryPogue said:
Thank you. It's gotten to the point where discussing newcomers means we engage in excitement (look what they can do) to buzz (what else can they do) to hype (they will do everything) to backlash (they're overrated) within the space of a season, which is enough to make my head spin.

Osmond is an exciting talent with loads of potential. Lets see where she goes, shall we?

I agree that's the best approach. It's sort of frustrating because saying "We'll see" will get you nowhere with the cheerleaders (Obviously you can't see that X skater will win a medal at Worlds for sure because of Z, Y, X skills) and the backlashers (Obviously you can't see all the flaws that will keep her from winning a medal at Worlds!)

Glad to see there are plenty taking a wait and see approach here.

Icey · Jan 21, 2013

Canada is hungry, and understandably so, to have another woman "winner". Those piling on the high expectations and early coronation may just spoil that if they aren't more cautious.

guanchi · Jan 21, 2013

I can understand why there's much hype around Katelyn- she's very pretty, looks almost like a young Emmy Rossum, knows how to use her eyes, seem like a very natural performer who's very happy, eager, and relaxed out there. But not sure I see the virtuosity, or endless transitions, esp. in her freeskate. I know she has a lot of transitions, but not sure of their difficulty- she seems to "mask" them with clever use of the arms ( she's better in this respect with the mambo/samba??? in the short), but in other aspects, she looks labored, especially her spins which are nothing special. A couple of half-baked illusion spins, that Y front catchfoot which is not even decent looking, that horrible catchfoot half-biellmann after the fall on the double axel- I really think her spins are overrated, plus she ends on a clumsy deathdrop- this is a Carmen ending??? And of course, she loses all energy near the end of the program.
With conditioning, she'll vastly improve, but let's not put her near the ranks of the elite quite yet.

Taan · Jan 21, 2013

Well I think a good reason to be excited is Kaetlyn is undefeated since turning senior, winning every senior competition she has entered.

1st victory Nebelhorn,
2nd victory Skate Canada,
3rd victory Challenge,
4th victory Nationals.

Can she keep her undefeated streak going?

If she keeps her undefeated streak going and she can win 4cc , she will undoubtedly be the favorite to win gold at worlds, people.

GO KAETLYN GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :yay:

guanchi · Jan 21, 2013

Oops, sorry Kaetlyn

If I'm going to critique, better get your name right

Mrs. P · Jan 21, 2013

Taan said:
Well I think a good reason to be excited is Kaetlyn is undefeated since turning senior, winning every senior competition she has entered.

1st victory Nebelhorn,
2nd victory Skate Canada,
3rd victory Challenge,
4th victory Nationals.

Can she keep her undefeated streak going?

If she keeps her undefeated streak going and she can win 4cc , she will undoubtedly be the favorite to win gold at worlds, people.

GO KAETLYN GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :yay:

Yes it's great she's undefeated, but as many others pointed out, she has yet to face most of the top front runners. In essence, the top girls she has beaten so far is Akiko Suzuki, Liza Tuktmysheva and Kanako Murakami (SC) and Adelina Sotnikova (Nebelhorn).

She has relatively little competition in Canada, so her wins in either Skate Canada Challenge or Canadian Nationals were not that surprising.

She has yet to face Ashley Wagner, the reigning 4CC champ; Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Yuna Kim and Alena Leonova (though she isn't having a great season).

Plus the U.S. girls, either Gracie or Mirai, is capable of doing betterl. I don't think Kaetlyn can just walk in and win it all. She will have some tough competition at 4CC and Worlds.

Again, like IP says, the girl has promise, but let's see how she does at 4CC and Worlds first.

vera01 · Jan 21, 2013

Mrs. P said:
She has yet to face Ashley Wagner, the reigning 4CC champ; Mao Asada, Carolina Kostner, Yuna Kim, Elizaveta Tuktmysheva, Alena Leonova (though she isn't having a great season).

Plus the U.S. girls, either Gracie or Mirai, is capable of doing betterl. I don't think Kaetlyn can just walk in and win it all. She will have some tough competition at 4CC and Worlds.

Again, like IP says, the girl has promise, but let's see how she does at 4CC and Worlds first.

Actually, Kaetlyn got a higher score than Tuktamysheva at SC. Tuktamysheva placed fourth at SC.

Gracie is likely to earn higher TES score than Kaetlyn's, but then Gracie's PCS won't be high as Kaetlyn's

Mrs. P · Jan 21, 2013

vera01 said:
Actually, Kaetlyn got a higher score than Tuktamysheva at SC. Tuktamysheva placed fourth at SC.

Gracie is likely to earn higher TES score than Kaetlyn's, but then Gracie's PCS won't be high as Kaetlyn's

Yeah, I forgot about that. Edited my post as such.

As for PCS, though Gracie does not have the CH, IN and PE skills Kaetlyn has, she does have a ton of transitions and good skating skills. Her PCS in Russia was 58.10 compared to 59.61 for Kaetlyn, FWIW.

But my point about redemption applies. Gracie and Liza both did very poorly at SC and they have had since had better competitions. Both can rack up the TES points.

wallylutz · Jan 21, 2013

Mrs. P said:
Yeah, I forgot about that. Edited my post as such.

As for PCS, though Gracie does not have the CH, IN and PE skills Kaetlyn has, she does have a ton of transitions and good skating skills. Her PCS in Russia was 58.10 compared to 59.61 for Kaetlyn, FWIW.

But my point about redemption applies. Gracie and Liza both did very poorly at SC and they have had since had better competitions. Both can rack up the TES points.

FYI, Kaetlyn already beat Gracie & Elizaveta at Skate Canada. And Leonova won't be going to Worlds, so no point to compare her. We will know more after 4CC, that's assuming Wagner will make it through the U.S. Nationals because her spot is not guaranteed - you know how the U.S. Nationals work, it can be quite cruel for a skater who simply had a bad day. Asada is her own biggest enemy, she pretty much determines her own fate but she will need her jumps landed cleanly or she will be at the mercy of the panel depending on whether they are lenient or not.

Kaetlyn Osmond 2013 World Champion?

shine

jenaj

Krislite

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

macy

drivingmissdaisy

Tesla

LauraV

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

gimble

ImaginaryPogue

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

Icey

guanchi

Taan

guanchi

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

vera01

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

wallylutz

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