2013 Japanese Nationals Men

[itoja]

Gee...

I don’t see any favoring and manipulation at this year’s Japanese Nationals. I saw you suggested something like “The difference could work out something like 2.5 points underscore from Dai for the SP” and “2 points overscore from Hanyu for LP (eg 1-1.25 point off Hanyu's GOEs and PCS wise).” I don’t see where the 2.5 points underscoring in Takahashi’s SP comes from, and I don’t see any GOE and PCS overscoring in Yuzru compared to Takahashi’s GOE and PCS.

You have given your opinion (many times).
Some have different ones.
For some, for example Takahashi’s 4T in the SP wasn't UR so that's + 3.10. And Yuzuru quads should have gotten more negative GOEs, like 4T -1 (he got 0) 4S -2.8 (got -1.80). Only that, and it is 3.10+ 2, enough to win for Takahashi.

You don't agree, we got it, can we move on?

[Elsa G]

I remember Tracy or someone commented at one competition that Yuzru is a perfectionist, so if he thinks he skated 50% of his capability it only means he was not satisfied with his performance and he will try to skate more well next time.

yep,that's Tracy Wilson's comments before his free skate at GPF.Quote"during the short program press conference he said he hopes he will skate his age（I guess 18 means 180 ）today",she though he breaking the world record twice made him a perfectionist.
But he has been a perfectionist since he was a child.His first coach Shoitirou Tuzuki sensei thought so.http://24.media.tumblr.com/bbf0b39b8...hdo10_1280.png

[let`s talk]

This year Takahashi skated well in the LP, but Yuzru did not skate as poorly as Takahashi’s LP last year.

So, you are making analogy of Kozuka's FS last season with Dai's FS this season to back up your opinion. Good! At least Dai wasn't overscored last season like Yuzu was this season. Jeez...

He got UR calls at all international events this season.

And? No one should care how the skater's jump was judged at another event. That is how sport works or should work. We don't have it now in fs. We have manipulation of CoP and failure of the sport worldwide. Japan, partly Russia and Korea are exceptions due to the individuals: Mao, Dai, Plu and Yuna. Wait till Sochi when two J-cash cows retire, what will be then in J-arenas if the things in this sport will keep going like that. .

I will only do gifs and screenshots for the jumps that are called by the judges this time.

Thank you. Even if another jump were ur but did't get a call, you don't care. That's fine. Double standards suit CoP perfectly well. I always say that.

[Li'Kitsu]

Regarding the bolded part. So you DO admit JSF favoured him this time and is perfectly fine with the result? I hope not. See that is the problem when federation actively push for skaters that took wins off the rightful winner (they have done this at NHK too), it goes against the purpose of a fair competition.

Simply what lakeside said - sarcasm. I'm not agreeing at all that the JSF is pushing Hanyu over Takahashi.
And as lakeside mentioned, Yuzuru was world bronze medalist and didn't get invited to Japan Open - while Dai got 96+ in PCS here. Dumping Dai would be looking different.

[os168]

Simply what lakeside said - sarcasm. I'm not agreeing at all that the JSF is pushing Hanyu over Takahashi.
And as lakeside mentioned, Yuzuru was world bronze medalist and didn't get invited to Japan Open - while Dai got 96+ in PCS here. Dumping Dai would be looking different.

I am aware of that, but you don't get my point. Japan wasn't pulling for him before at Japan Open, but they were here AFTER he proved he could be a good bet going to the worlds and Sochi so they give him a nice boost here. That's what they do at Nationals, if it is Kozuka who they believe would be a good bet, they'd boost his PCS at nationals etc, just like that have done for Mao and Miki every year leading to the world championship. It is interchangeable seasonal depends on who they want to support. This isn't fair to other competitors they do not back, as evidently seen here in Daisuke and many times Akiko at home events.

I have stated all last season Hanyu was underscored in PCS based on what he put out there, but at this particular competition it is the first time I see they decide to put their full backing to Hanyu and it showed up on his generous PCS and GOEs. If you actually observe what he did in his LP compare to what he did last year, and his early PCS score early in the season, and ALSO his PCS in his SP you should able to observe despite he did less well in his LP, yet the PCS increased.

[Li'Kitsu]

I have stated all last season Hanyu was underscored in PCS based on what he put out there, but at this particular competition it is the first time I see they decide to put their full backing to Hanyu and it showed up on his generous PCS and GOEs. If you actually observe what he did in his LP compare to what he did last year, and his early PCS score early in the season, and ALSO his PCS in his SP you should able to observe despite he did less well in his LP, yet the PCS increased.

Is that suppossed to tell me the japanese fed already wanted to back Hanyu up over Takahashi in the SP?
Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36. Hanyu was clean both times.
For Takahashi on the other hand, he was clean once this season, at the GPF. PCS: 43.14. He wasn't clean here but received a nice 44.65 in PCS.
This is what backing up Hanyu looks like? Sorry but no, if anything, these SP scores look like the fed still wanted Takahashi as their frist.
Okay, then let's look at the FS... yes, Hanyus PCS did rise a lot. Hanyu got 79.56 in SA for a total mess. At the GPF he got 85.16 for a not clean, but good performance (maybe the most comparable to his performance here). At JN, he got 89.7. Takahashi's scores went from 82.66 to 90.22, but here he got 96. Yes, this was the first time he was really clean, but the PCS difference is still very huge. I doubt he'd get those scores internationally (if I agree with it or not). You can argue that Hanyus PCS were a little more inflated compared to his international events than Takahashis, but that alone hardly justifies these outcries and conspiracy theories here.

For the TES: Hanyu's in the SP again is very much in line with his international ones (here 53.78, 53.03 at NHK). For the TES, he got 91.96 at the GPF, where he popped the 4S - nearly 10 points lost! So now he got 97.85 with a shaky landing on both his quads and everything else clean. No, I'm not seeing the major inflatation (compared to his international events!) here at all. And some general national inflatation is to be expected - Takahashi got that too.
Hanyu's technical elements always receive high GOE's when he's clean (rightfully). And here the judges were pretty GOE-happy with both of Hanyu and Takahashi.

[emdee]

yep,that's Tracy Wilson's comments before his free skate at GPF.Quote"during the short program press conference he said he hopes he will skate his age（I guess 18 means 180 ）today",she though he breaking the world record twice made him a perfectionist.

Tracy is Hanyu's skating skills coach so her opinion would be from watching him on a day to day basis and not because he broke the record twice.

[let`s talk]

Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36.

... and that is when all the talks of Hanyuflation started. The Crown Prince in the Overscored Land. His PCS upper/mid 8s for the Comic Blues is just laughable. His 9 in FS is simply beyond not just sport rules but common sense. The score 9 speaks about the real mastership and usually a long career. Very few skaters cracked 9 even at National events, like Plu or Dai. Even for Chan it took longer time than for Hanyu. The 9-land is what Kurt got at MWO. But to give 9s for the skating of the sick kid who needs food means only one thing: either the judges had sadistic issues and sincerely appreciated such a prog or the score was cooked.

[os168]

Is that suppossed to tell me the japanese fed already wanted to back Hanyu up over Takahashi in the SP?
Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36. Hanyu was clean both times.
For Takahashi on the other hand, he was clean once this season, at the GPF. PCS: 43.14. He wasn't clean here but received a nice 44.65 in PCS.
This is what backing up Hanyu looks like? Sorry but no, if anything, these SP scores look like the fed still wanted Takahashi as their frist.
Okay, then let's look at the FS... yes, Hanyus PCS did rise a lot. Hanyu got 79.56 in SA for a total mess. At the GPF he got 85.16 for a not clean, but good performance (maybe the most comparable to his performance here). At JN, he got 89.7. Takahashi's scores went from 82.66 to 90.22, but here he got 96. Yes, this was the first time he was really clean, but the PCS difference is still very huge. I doubt he'd get those scores internationally (if I agree with it or not). You can argue that Hanyus PCS were a little more inflated compared to his international events than Takahashis, but that alone hardly justifies these outcries and conspiracy theories here.

For the TES: Hanyu's in the SP again is very much in line with his international ones (here 53.78, 53.03 at NHK). For the TES, he got 91.96 at the GPF, where he popped the 4S - nearly 10 points lost! So now he got 97.85 with a shaky landing on both his quads and everything else clean. No, I'm not seeing the major inflatation (compared to his international events!) here at all. And some general national inflatation is to be expected - Takahashi got that too.
Hanyu's technical elements always receive high GOE's when he's clean (rightfully). And here the judges were pretty GOE-happy with both of Hanyu and Takahashi.

Yes to your first question. In anycase you should take a larger sampling of statistics if you really want to compare it this way than just 2 events over the same season. You ought to consider over a career worth, and compare with the likes of Patrick, Daisuke and Kozuka at least and actually see what they did.

Miki Ando's PCS for example went up by outrageous 14 points over a season without 3/3s or a decent program, thanks to a massive boost at the Japanese Nationals which carried her over to to 4CCs then WC which it calmed down a bit but not enough due to the narrow corridors the judges assign to the momentums +-.25, 0.5 etc. An example of momentum build with a strong federation backing could look something like

1st event (B event)
Good PCS to start off with since B level tends to be more generous with PCS (Did you see Hanyu's mark here as well as his R&J FS mark last year? It was all 7.something)
2nd event (GP)
+.25
3rd event (GP
+.25
4th event (GPF)
+ .25
4th event
+.5 (at Nationals)
5th event
+0.25 (4CC)
6th event
-.25 (Worlds generally have the highest quality of judging since it is under the greatest scrutiny also. So the mark should theoretically calm down tot earth unless of politics.
Tactic 1: risk mistakes with upgraded content to compensate for any drop in PCS coming down to reality. Tactic 2: You can downgrade BV content like Miki Ando at WC 2011 to benefit from higher PCS boost due to less error)...

that is how momentum could work like. If you mess up one of your skate just make sure you don't mess up the next, otherwise it may drop. If you improved upon an overmarked PCS it is even better, because it won't come down as fast if you mess up.

It especially advantage skaters with more home events with strong federation backing like Japanese skaters, who has 3 home events of the year.
It advantages skaters who take on a full season with as many event as possible.
It disadvantage skaters who only assigned a few events or NO event of the year, hence the lessening of the GP spots makes it really unfair for the lower ranked skaters to catch up with the elite. That was why I was really worried about Mirai and her chances. Plus also for skaters like Yuna Kim, or Plushy, or even Evan if they only partake a 1 or 2 competition in the year and still want to do WC not having not built any momentum leading to the competition. Another major disadvantage is even if they did a wow, statistically it does't make it easy for the judges to get it right the first time. This doesn't apply to everyone all the time, but it is the general trend I noticed.

I blamed Miki's WC 2011 win started this winning by PCS strategy by the ladies, to work on consistency instead of taking risks, The 14 points PCS she got over the 2011 season was a travesty for this sport and how i really dislike about COP and politics in the sport, (I haven't bothered to check on Carolina's records but I expect it would be something like this), she boosted the most during Japan Nationals and also 4CCs because Mao was in a slump and she had the full Japanese federation behind her, and she did this without a 3/3 and imo a contrived program without decent transitions and alot of this poseography that you see a lot in Carolina's program now. You compare her to Akiko who were 2nd in both her GPF, you'd see Akiko's PCS barely moved and she wasn't even able to representing Japan that year for WC.

Finally I recognize the flaw of the system and I trust my own eyes and judgement more than some National judges that have their own agendas to push on. That is why I come here, to discuss and to vent. Clearly.... many does too.

[Tommmy]

Well, at Nationals everyone got PCS boosts, not just Hanyu.
Even Kozuka's disastrous FP got higher PCS than well performed FP at GPF by 2 points.
If that's the case, I think Hanyu's 4 points rise from GPF is pretty understandable.

[pitterpatter]

Is that suppossed to tell me the japanese fed already wanted to back Hanyu up over Takahashi in the SP?
Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36. Hanyu was clean both times.
For Takahashi on the other hand, he was clean once this season, at the GPF. PCS: 43.14. He wasn't clean here but received a nice 44.65 in PCS.
This is what backing up Hanyu looks like? Sorry but no, if anything, these SP scores look like the fed still wanted Takahashi as their frist.
Okay, then let's look at the FS... yes, Hanyus PCS did rise a lot. Hanyu got 79.56 in SA for a total mess. At the GPF he got 85.16 for a not clean, but good performance (maybe the most comparable to his performance here). At JN, he got 89.7. Takahashi's scores went from 82.66 to 90.22, but here he got 96. Yes, this was the first time he was really clean, but the PCS difference is still very huge. I doubt he'd get those scores internationally (if I agree with it or not). You can argue that Hanyus PCS were a little more inflated compared to his international events than Takahashis, but that alone hardly justifies these outcries and conspiracy theories here.

For the TES: Hanyu's in the SP again is very much in line with his international ones (here 53.78, 53.03 at NHK). For the TES, he got 91.96 at the GPF, where he popped the 4S - nearly 10 points lost! So now he got 97.85 with a shaky landing on both his quads and everything else clean. No, I'm not seeing the major inflatation (compared to his international events!) here at all. And some general national inflatation is to be expected - Takahashi got that too.
Hanyu's technical elements always receive high GOE's when he's clean (rightfully). And here the judges were pretty GOE-happy with both of Hanyu and Takahashi.

[Li'Kitsu]

os168.... I'm not really getting why you are coming up with Miki now. Yes, consistency boosts your scores. You can see that in Ashley too. So what? What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes? That's not even close to being the same... and just because sakter X receives very high PCS at nationals, it doesn't mean it will be the same at international events. You make it sound like the judges had some long-term masterplan behind their marks.
Yes, reputation judging exists.
Yes, consistency might boost your scores.
Yes, sometimes there seem to be national biases (at least some people think there are).
And all of those can exist under any kind of scoring system...
I however don't think any of those apply here. I'm sticking to what I said in my last post.

[os168]

os168.... I'm not really getting why you are coming up with Miki now. Yes, consistency boosts your scores. You can see that in Ashley too. So what? What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes? That's not even close to being the same... and just because sakter X receives very high PCS at nationals, it doesn't mean it will be the same at international events. You make it sound like the judges had some long-term masterplan behind their marks.
Yes, reputation judging exists.
Yes, consistency might boost your scores.
Yes, sometimes there seem to be national biases (at least some people think there are).
And all of those can exist under any kind of scoring system...
I however don't think any of those apply here. I'm sticking to what I said in my last post.

Of course it does. Put it this way, if this is not Japanese Nationals, no federation involvement. This competition did not happen this year but last year. Does the score reflect what they put out on the ice ON THE DAY? If you think it is still does, then I have no more comment, because I see it differently, quite simply.

[chloepoco]

os168.... I'm not really getting why you are coming up with Miki now. Yes, consistency boosts your scores. You can see that in Ashley too. So what? What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes? That's not even close to being the same... and just because sakter X receives very high PCS at nationals, it doesn't mean it will be the same at international events. You make it sound like the judges had some long-term masterplan behind their marks.
Yes, reputation judging exists.
Yes, consistency might boost your scores.
Yes, sometimes there seem to be national biases (at least some people think there are).
And all of those can exist under any kind of scoring system...
I however don't think any of those apply here. I'm sticking to what I said in my last post.

Yes, exactly.
Or maybe, os168 has some inside knowledge into the inner workings of that evil JSF.

[let`s talk]

What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes?

You folks make it sound like this is nothing wrong with that. Federations are not supposed to favour certain skaters in the first place. They are supposed to be impartial. That's charming to see how some fs fans support political games and then we feel surprised why the creditibility and popularity of this sport is where it is. Thanks, guys.

Or maybe, os168 has some inside knowledge into the inner workings of that evil JSF.

Very imformative. With the same success I can say that maybe you have some inside knowledge into the inner workings of the kind JSF to claim that nothing dirty is going on.