US Ladies Who Might Retire After 2014?
Not sure if this has been discussed elsewhere as I haven't been on here in a while, but this has been something I have been wondering about lately with all the skaters retiring after 2014.
Ashley has been on a roll the past couple seasons. She is 21 now I believe (becoming a veteran) and will be 22 (almost 23) by the time the Olympics roll around. Do you think she will retire after 2014 whether she makes it or not? It's kind of a toss-up in my opinion...she could want to continue her success with Mr. Nicks and maybe take another shot at 2018 or could call it a career since she would start to get up in age.
I don't see Alissa staying until 2014 at all, especially after her disastrous season she had last year. I don't see her coming back in top form like in 2010-2011, having an injury and still recovering from surgery. If she does come back strong at nationals as much as I would love to see her do so, i hope she places 3rd-ish and not in the top 2. As horrible as that sounds to me being a huge fan of hers (I have a silhouette of her layback tattooed on my back with the words "make it happen" as a symbol of my love of skating and she is also my role model), we can't afford to take the chance. I would be surprised if she even decides to compete next season.
I don't see Caroline continuing much longer either. She has improved but her programs aren't able to compete with the top skaters, especially looking at her GP results this year. I see her placing in the top 6 or so with a couple of clean or very good skates, but I don't think we'll see her to 2014. Whenever she decides to retire, I will miss her spins dearly along with alissa's (no more beautiful laybacks )
I think Mirai will stick around for next season. She's off to a good start this year and I see a little bit of that spark back in her. The coaching change did her good IMO especially without a far drive. I think she will place in the top 4 at nats in a few weeks.
I know a lot of people want to see Rachael retire, and as big of a fan of hers I am I agree that it's time. She is no longer a skater who is also a student, but a student who skates. I miss the old Rachael so much and I don't think we'll ever get that back especially with her decision to skip nats this year and focus on school work. She doesn't remotely have a chance to get to the olympics again. i think she'll call it a career in a few months IMO.
Christina has had a lot of success and breakthrough performances this year and I think she'll stay another season or two although I don't think she has a chance at the olys. She's young still and still has time.
Any other US ladies skaters you think will be gone in the next year or so? Opinions?
Interesting you say Christina is young and still has time. She'll be 19 (a month away from 20) by 2014 Sochi. If she wants to compete at the Olympics, this is her prime time. Especially considering that she's also a student who also skates. She's a full time student attending classes on campus and she won't be as committed to skating as Ashley is to fine tune her skating for another Olympic jab in 2018 at the age of 24. I think she'll call it a career after next season.
Ashley, I can see stay past Sochi. When Sochi rolls by, many top contenders will be done. Yuna will most probably be done for good. Mao is a wildcard there, I don't think she'll want to stop until she reaches her goals unless she really can't bare to continue. Suzuki has stated she'll be done. Kostner is done. The first post olympic season is up for grabs and I think Ashley is going to take advantage of that. Then she'll probably call it a career.
Mirai I can also see going forward
I can see Ashley staying as well, and I think it's likely she will. She should be among the favorites competing for the US title the next few years, and with her good results come sponsorships, endorsements, etc. Unlike most other American ladies, Ashley can probably fund her training through these outside deals. Particularly with the pro circuit drying up, her best chance to remain relevant and earn money would be through remaining an amateur.
Alissa, Caroline, Mirai, and Rachel I think will retire. Once you're past your prime the opportunities to cover the very high expense of competing become limited. All four are already a few years past their best form.
I don't think we will see Alissa, Ashley, Mirai, Caroline or Rachael past the Olympic year. I'm not sure about Christina. Maybe if she makes the Olympic team we won't see her either.
Wagner- I think it depends solely on what she achieves. If she wins a World title (not just a medal) and an Olympic medal (any color) she will go pro. If she does one of those two things, but not both, it is a toss up, maybe going 1 or 2 more years but not to 2018. If she does neither of those things she will plan to continue to 2018.
Zhang- done after 2014, taking one last crack at Olympics or atleast making her first Worlds, then that is it.
Gao- will stay until 2018 regardless. Handles school plus competing fine so no reason to stop. Anyway it is not like she has the credentials or is likely to by 2014 (best case for her by then is becoming an Olympian and World Team member but definitely not a medalist) to have any kind of pro career.
Gold- Obviously staying until 2018 no matter what, especialy as the odds of her winning a medal in 2014 are next to nil, and she might not even make the team.
Nagasu- 2014 is likely her last season me thinks. She is already past her very best, even if she is still a contender to make World or Olympic teams. I dont see her even being a World medalist at this point at all.
Flatt- Is already retired unless she is delusional.
Czisny- 2014 is definitely last season of amateur competition. Just staying in for one last shot at the Olympics at this point.
...And the drought continues...
It's up to Gracie and Agnes (Imo Ashley simply doesn't have the technical firepower to compete with the now steamrolling Russians, the four horsewomen of doom- Liza, Adelina, Julia, and Elena)
And I don't think these newbies like Miller or Wang be will be a real world or olympic medal threat.
Who will be our new anointed one after Sochi??? The aforementioned or a real super prodigy unknown?
At least we'll have fun/agony waiting and guessing.
LOL at the talk of the steamrollings Russians. Based on the scores and performances this year it is unlikely any of the Russians will even be top 5 at Worlds this year, and it is possible none will be top 5 in Sochi next year either. Maybe after Sochi they will become a big threat, but I doubt Wagner wont be able to compete with them unless she massively declines (and yes that is even assuming the Russians all improve alot, which I expect given their youth they will, at their current levels of course I wouldnt talk about merely competing as a clean Wagner would crush a clean Russian by 15 points, and a clean Kim would crush a clean Russian by about 45 points, other than maybe headcase Sotnikova who can never skate clean to save her life anyway). The Russian girls have to be the most overhyped thing to hit skating since Naomi Nari Nam.
Originally Posted by guanchi
Last edited by pangtongfan; 12-27-2012 at 01:21 AM.
The Russian girls aren't ready for olympic or world medals. They are two young and one of them have really demonstrated they are keen,primed and ready. But getting back to the meat of this post. If any of the girls win Oly gold I think think they will retire faster than Lindsay Lohan gets into problems. Regardless of whether she compets at Sochi or not I think both Zhang and Flatt will be gone as they move on to the next stage of their respective lives. Christina will probably continue if she continues to get good results ie make the GPF but if she stagnates I think she will focus on school Likewise I think Mirai will move on unless she gets a medal at worlds/Oly.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I was talking about post-Sochi. Pre-Sochi will prolly still be Yuna, Caro, or possibly even Ashley, but pre-Pyeongchang will be all Russian, I totally bet it. Liza will never lose her technique, Sot has nowhere to go but up again, and the 2 younger ones- Julia and Elena- have nerves of steel it seems. I predict a clean russian sweep in 2018.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
But back to retirements, this is a sad thread for US ladies. An older Ashley will not get any better, so it falls on the 2 big jumpers. But even those 2 will have it extremely rough against the world.
At the rink. Again.
Lipnitskaia and Radianova are both < 15 which means their "self awareness" isn't fully developed yet (ie competition doesn't sit in their mental game the same way as it does for a maturing skater). Sotnikova had nerves of steel when she was 13/14 and since she grew into her full awareness, she's had issues with making mistakes outside of Russian Nationals. Let's see how the two current "Russian Wonder Babies" handle maturing into self awareness before we proclaim they have nerves of steel.
If Gracie keeps improving she has the firepower to beat the Russian girls. It just might take some time. Plus Julia and Elena might be in for some hard times as they hit puberty. Julia especially has smallish jumps.
Last edited by Jammers; 12-27-2012 at 04:21 PM.
Likely to retire: Czisny, Flatt
Could go either way: Nagasu, Zhang, Gao (I think these two seasons are a test for herself more than anything else)
Doubt it (unless she wins): Wagner (I fully expect her to continue until 2015 and retire then)
Wagner is the only one of our current ladies who seems to enjoy competing, much like Michelle did. I used to think that if Michelle won in Nagano she would have went pro. But you could tell she enjoyed the process of reinventing herself to keep up with the sport when she needed to, and I get a similar vibe from Ashley. That's why I don't see her giving this up anytime soon.
Keeper of the Kweens OGM.
I think if Ashley continues on this track and remains healthy, I could see her going past Sochi maybe even 2018.
I think Rachel Flatt will probably retire and possible Caroline as well. I am not sure about Alissa, I think she will try and make they Olympic team than retire after that.
Wagner - One or two more seasons, or retire if she won some medal at Worlds and Olympics
Nagasu - One or two more years, or retire if she makes the world and olympic teams this two seasons.
Zhang, Flatt and Czisney- They will retire.
Gold, Gao and Agnes- Unti 2018