I still don't understand the hype about Gracie Gold. But I think she'll definitely remain until 2018, unless she suffers from major career-ending injuries.Originally Posted by Jammers
Mirai, she'll only be 24 in 2018 - I think if he results in the next few seasons are decent/good, but she doesn't necessarily medal at Worlds of the Olympics, she might stay for another quadrennial to give it her last best shot.
The hype about Gracie is her technical abilities. She has all triple (minus Axel which she is slowly working on) and a couple of different triple-triples and triple-single-triples which are almost never < or <<. She's got level 4 spins, level 3/4 steps, and good speed and flow across the ice. It doesn't really matter whether you are mechanical in your presentation as long as you have good skating skills and a mixture of transitions throughout the program under IJS (this is what a lot of people are complaining about with the PCS mark in general)
I dont see Mirai being the type to motivate herself going past another Olympics, when it is unlikely she will ever reach even her 2010 results again. I think she is staying in just to hope to experience another Olympics, and that is it.
I think 2010 was Mirai's peak. She could surprise but i don't think she will ever get to that level every again. Her improvement from 2009 to 2010 in just a few months was staggering and i really did think she had a chance to become a World Champion in 2010. She was so confident in her SP she seemed to have gone to another level. But her mental game has always been lacking as we saw.
Totally true, and even if she did have a resurgence I dont see the judges being as enthusiastic as they were getting for her by the 2010 Worlds. There is only so long judges wait around for some burgeoning talent to come around, and the U.S star is now Wagner and their future hopes are people like Gold and Agnes. Mirai has already had countless opportunities and wasted them, and people are already done waiting for her I think. She should have atleast medaled at the 2010 Worlds. What a huge wasted opportunity that was.
She still has a chance to compete at Worlds and Olympics the next 15 months, and contribute to the U.S regaining 3 spots with a solid finish as number 2 or 3 U.S lady, but that is the max of her opportunity at this point me thinks.
Agree on all those, although I think Ashley might stay around until 2018, like you said pending what she does the next little while.
I mean I dunno. Granted Ashley never had the same momentum as Mirai had before, but she was around and no one for several years before the second half of last year and then this year. Mirai is essentially in that same place now. If she 'pulls a Wagner' I think the judges would come around again.
That said, while I will always love Mirai and be a fan, I agree I'm not sure that is at all likely to happen.
Ashley was the 'almost' girl while Mirai is the 'it girl who has been falling'. I think it might be better to perhaps refer to a Mirai resurgence as a 'Chen Lu'. Lulu won Bronze at Olympics in 94 (Mirai came close in her Olympics), World's in 95, 2nd in world to Kwan in 96, barely exited qualifying round at world's in 97 (finished in 24th or 25th?) and then won bronze at 98 Olympics.
Wagner did go from being a contender in the U.S and juniors who could seemingly never beat Flatt, Zhang, or Nagasu, or place higher than 3rd at the various events she was a contender in- U.S Nationals, Four Continents, World Juniors (2007-2010) to seemingly dropping forever from ever being a contender even at the U.S level again (late 2010-2011), to suddenly being a contender on the World level for the first time ever (2012-2013).
On another topic how would we rank the careers of the veteran Americans who have emerged since 2007 if they all retired now. Mine would be:
1. Meissner- World title, U.S title, Olympian, the end.
2. Wagner- International wins which were slim to none for the rest, including various grand prixs, Four Continents, Japan Open, U.S Champion, silver at GP final, even without an Olympics she beats all the remaining others already.
3. Czisny- GP final win, 2 U.S Titles, several grand prix wins. Come to think of it she could even rank over Wagner at this point, and perhaps should.
4. Flatt- U.S title, many U.S silvers, World Junior title, Olympian. Still ranks behind Wagner and Czisny clearly though as she never even won a senior international, unless there is a B one I am unaware of.
5. Nagasu- Ranks behind Flatt since she doesnt have as many U.S medals and top 2s, World appearances, and neither have won a grand prix or anything bigger than that. Plus didnt win a World Junior title.
6. Zhang- Amazing World Junior career, one bronze and two pewters at U.S Championships.
7. Hughes- already to the point of not worth going any further or into anymore detail so I will stop here.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 12-28-2012 at 05:58 PM.
i did seem to forget how old christina actually is...to me she still seems like she's 17, but then i remember she's going to harvard lol. she is on the younger side of the bunch though. being that she almost did quit it's hard to predict how long she will stay. i'm going to be extremely sad when all of them retire in the next few years or so i'm sure, but i'm excited for newer seniors and up-and-coming juniors. a lot can happen from now until sochi, and obviously a LOT more can happen in the 4 years after that.
like someone else said, there's no way the baby russians will be a huge medal threat in sochi, they're way too young and can't compete with skaters like yuna and mao. as for a podium sweep in 2018, only time will tell. there are some talented US and japanese girls coming up and 5 or 6 years is a lot of time to improve until then.
after ashley, mirai, and alissa are gone i see gracie or agnes winning nats easily. i really don't think caroline will ever be a contender for gold and honestly even if mirai sticks around for a bit i think her nerves will get in the way again. i don't see her getting up to what she was in 2010.
If Caro does a clean short and 5 triples long, it will take an upset of miracle proportion for one of the russians to beat her.
Ashley isn't a top tier skater. I can't believe people think she gonna win World. If she indeed won World, she would out-Kimmie Kimmie to be the worst world champion in decades. She isn't cut from the same cloth as Mao, Yuna, Carolina, Michelle, Shizuka, Irina, Lu Chen, Maria B, Tara, Yuka, Kristi, Midori.
Kostner is definitely not staying past 2014, and I believe the poster you are replying to was referring to Caroline Zhang never being a threat for U.S gold (which seems almost certain).
I agree on Ashley most likely. I do think she can win a bronze at Worlds or Olympics, and maybe even a silver if alot of things happen, but not gold.
Where's Miki???
Czisny will retire after 2014, I think she's just sticking around now to give one last shot and see if she can make the Olympic team, and also not to retire on such a bad note as her epic meltdown at the 2012 Worlds.
Caroline and Rachael I think will be done after 2014, they've been dumped by the judges, Rachael has a lot of other things going on in her life, and Caroline hasn't started college yet I don't think so it would make sense if she retired and then went to school full time.
Gracie and Agnes will stay past 2014, probably until 2018, regardless of if they make the Olympics and if so, how they place there.
Christina and Ashley are the question marks. If Ashley continues to do so well internationally, and say just misses a medal at the Olympics, or were to get silver at Worlds or something, then I could see her staying, as long as the judges continue to give her good marks and she stays hungry results wise in the sense that Olympic/World gold, or medals in general, are possible post-Sochi and she isn't totally satisfied with what she's won by then (IE she doesn't win the Olympics and Worlds this/next season...which I'm not expecting).
Christina idk, depending on what happens at Nationals, if she's top 2 and goes to Worlds and does well, I could see her taking a year off Harvard next season to try and make the Olympic team then depending on if she makes it and how she's doing internationally, she may stay past 2018 and continue with Harvard. She'd be graduated by 2018 anyways, so I think a lot will come down to her results between now and the 2014 Olympics and how she's handling her schoolwork or time off if that's what she chooses to do.
You covered everyone but Nagasu, hehe.
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