Oh Mirai. Yeah I think she'll be done after 2014, unless she doesn't make the Sochi team and decides she really wants to reinvent herself and make a run for 2018, sort of like how Ashley did after 2010 nats. But Mirai has already been to the Olympics, so I do wonder about motivation with that one.
i really don't think mirai will stay past 2014. her prime is past her and i honestly don't think the fire is 100% back, i don't see the spark as bright as it was in 2009-2010. i have confidence in ashley and i think she has the potential to win worlds this year. it's a really deep field but she has proved herself to the judges and they seem to be behind her. she has such a hunger and a drive that i think anything is possible for her. it's been such a long time since the US has had a skater like that. she's pretty much on mao's level now, and she has been more inconsistent than ashley has this year. it will be interesting to see how yuna holds herself together but i'm sure she will place top 3 at worlds with good skates, and will win with clean skates. i do think ashley could do it though, or in the future if yuna blows it away this year.
I would love to see this happen, but I think it's unlikely because she has never delivered two programs with the technical content needed to beat YuNa. She typically two-foots the 3T in her combos and will lose GOE for that. She hasn't needed the 3-3s to do well this season but hopefully she will put it in her Nationals and/or 4CC programs for practice. The risk might cost her these title(s) but I don't think doing them for the first time this season at Worlds would be wise.Originally Posted by macy
Right now Yu Na Kim, Mao Asada, and Carolina Kostner are all clearly above Wagner for Worlds. She is basically slotted to finish 4th just like last year on paper. That said I do have a hunch she will win a bronze or silver (more likely the bronze) at Worlds this year. The reason being I am pretty sure on of those others (most likely Asada or Kostner) will screw up somewhat and she will come through by delivering a strong performance. The fact there are even people in this thread who think Nagasu can beat her at Nationals, speaks volumes to what a long shot the World title is for Wagner right now. If she was any serious contender for the World title nobody would dare even suggest Nagasu or any of other current U.S ladies were any competition to her. After all if there were Yu Na Kim or Mao Asada at the U.S Nationals instead there would be no talk of anyone else winning, Nagasu skating the best she is capable of now was nowhere near a jokish 3 triple Mao at NHK.
Actually, I do. If she is in reasonable health, I don't see why she wouldn't at least give it a shot. Remember, this is the woman that almost everyone thought would give up after 2010, and then she comes back and rises arguably to the highest point of her career. Now, it can be argued that she might be at the LOWEST point of her career, and it remains to be seen if she can bounce back, but I'm almost sure she'll at least try. Only reason she wouldn't is if she's physically incapable of doing so.I don't see Alissa staying until 2014 at all, especially after her disastrous season she had last year. I don't see her coming back in top form like in 2010-2011, having an injury and still recovering from surgery. If she does come back strong at nationals as much as I would love to see her do so, i hope she places 3rd-ish and not in the top 2. As horrible as that sounds to me being a huge fan of hers (I have a silhouette of her layback tattooed on my back with the words "make it happen" as a symbol of my love of skating and she is also my role model), we can't afford to take the chance. I would be surprised if she even decides to compete next season.
Zhang's comeback was really one of the biggest stories concerning American ladies last year, and unfortunately she seems to have taken somewhat of a step back. But again, she tends to have her peak later in the season. Unfortunately for her, I think she will find it very difficult to rise above 3rd even with the improvements she has made. The level of competition has simply risen above her.I don't see Caroline continuing much longer either. She has improved but her programs aren't able to compete with the top skaters, especially looking at her GP results this year. I see her placing in the top 6 or so with a couple of clean or very good skates, but I don't think we'll see her to 2014. Whenever she decides to retire, I will miss her spins dearly along with alissa's (no more beautiful laybacks )
That bolded statement is profound. She is not a SKATER that happens to be a student, but a student that happens to skate. Big difference. If she wants to excel, eventually she will have to choose one of the two, and I think she has already made that choice. Even if she wanted to immerse herself in skating, she can't because of her injuries. So she really didn't have much choice anyway.I know a lot of people want to see Rachael retire, and as big of a fan of hers I am I agree that it's time. She is no longer a skater who is also a student, but a student who skates. I miss the old Rachael so much and I don't think we'll ever get that back especially with her decision to skip nats this year and focus on school work. She doesn't remotely have a chance to get to the olympics again. i think she'll call it a career in a few months IMO.
I don't think we'll see her back. Instead, she'll remain in this pseudo-retirement mode like so many others before her (Kwan, Cohen, Meissner, etc.). Anyway, she's already been to the Olympics which is an accomplishment in itself. She should count herself very lucky and consider her skating career a relative success.
Other than Flatt nobody is retiring before 2014. With the Olympics so close by and a good chance the U.S will have 3 spots, everyone will take a shot at it.
We already know three of the top 5 world contenders will be retiring after Sochi: Yu-Na Kim, Carolina Kostner, Akiko Suzuki. I would put Kiira Korpi in that group as well. I don't know about Mao Asada though...her goal is to win Olympic Gold and I'm not too sure she'll be leaving before that regardless of what the field is looking like! She strikes me as one who might pull a Michelle Kwan and continue to compete until her body forces her to retire.
Looking at the US ladies...
Ashley: I think Ashley will take advantage of the changing of the guard. After Sochi the majority of the top names will be exiting the sport. That's a prime time for Ashley (who is already a front-runner) to rack up some titles. She'll have the experience and the credibility. The newbies will still be adjusting and maturing so I think it would be a good opportunity for her to win the big titles. I don't know if she'd stay in until 2018 but I think she'll have at least another two years left in her. Her chances of winning gold in Sochi are on the lower end but I think her shot at a medal is pretty decent at this point.
Mirai: To me motivation will be Mirai's biggest factor. When she's motivated and focused, she's a top-notch competitor. When she's unfocused and lazy, she blends in with the rest of the pack. Mirai has a little bit of fire to her this year and a lot more fight. She's a strong contender for the world team this year and if she continues to improve the way she has been, she'll be setting herself up nicely to be a strong contender for the Olympic team again. If she's motivated to continue to compete I think she'll continue. But if it's not driving her the way it needs to, I think she may hang around for an extra season before exiting. I really want to see her hang around...she's barely tapped her potential in this sport. She's capable of doing what Ashley did last year. She just needs to find that consistency, confidence and drive, and push herself to the top.
Gracie: Gold is very green (lol!) so I'm fairly certain she'll be around all the way through 2018 unless she finds something better to do or starts sucking really bad. She has huge jumps and loads of potential but she still needs another year or two to mature and learn. I think she has a good shot at making the team in Sochi but I don't see her on the podium there...
Agnes: Her talent is amazing but she's been a bit of a disappointment. She's never gained any kind of traction on the GP circuit. Her brilliance is sporadic and, oftentimes, fleeting which makes it hard to peg where she'll be after Sochi. If she gains consistency in her jumps, she'd be a big contender for the team. If she continues to be a constant wildcard I think the judges will push her out before she's ready to go. I'd like to see her hang around past Sochi for a few years though.
Christina: Again, motivation will determine whether she continues past Sochi. She started off strongly this year but hasn't really matched it since. If she's comfortable maintaining her school/skate lifestyle and can manage it, I think she should continue. She's another skater who has a lot of potential and is just now figuring things out. I'd like to see her stay for a few more years and really develop her style and personality on the ice. She has the potential to be an amazing skater.
Alissa: It's hard for me to imagine her competing this year at nationals. She had one really solid season and then pretty much regressed the next season. Add the injury, older age, and the fact that her jumps were never that great to begin with, I'm doubtful she'll compete past nationals next year. I can't see her continuing after Sochi at this point. I feel sad for her b/c it's shaping up to be just like 2010 where she's completely shut out from making the team. Stars would have to align in a serious way for Alissa to make it to Sochi IMO...
Caroline: I adore her hard work and persistence but I don't see her being close to making it to worlds this year or Sochi next year. I think she'll give it her all and try to make the team but after nationals next year I think she'll be done...
Rachael: At this point it feels like Rachael has moved on and I say kudos. She's been to the Olympics, skated well and placed well. There's no way she can top what she did back in 2010 and, honestly, I don't think she'll bother to try. I'll be surprised if she competes at all next season.
To recap:
Stay Past Sochi: Ashley, Gracie
Toss Up: Mirai, Agnes, Christina
Adios After Sochi: Alissa, Caroline, Rachael
Last edited by kwanatic; 01-02-2013 at 02:18 PM.
Ooops.Where's Miki???
Poor Miki, so forgettable. And for the record, I do think highly of her and she's definitely worthy of the 2 titles. As a WC, she doesn't stick out like a sore thump like Kimmie or would-be Ashley. Miki needs some serious materials if she's coming back.
Seriously!
Wagner will need the top girls to zamboni a few spots and she will have to be perfect to come near the podium. She will need to watch her back for Akiko as well. I think she might have 2-3 points advantage over Akiko for being US #1 but not enough a spread to guarantee a higher placement.
Other girls like Kiira, and one of the Russians could give her a good run as well.
Wagner is second tier, and always is. The sudden rise is reminiscent of Evan running up to the Olympics. Really inexplicable stuff.
Only tuktamisheva is a possibility and that's if she gets like 70 TES. Kostner and asada don't even really need jumps! Yu-na combines both jumps and the rest of Tes and pcs but right now jumps are the least important element in ladies skating.
This is true, but no one is landing them. Those that are, like Liza, give up too many points on PCS. I can see Yu Na winning worlds by 20+ points this year.
Ashely has already beaten many of the contenders in the last 12 months including this season alone. But she's already beaten Mao at Japan Open, Akiko at Japan Open and GPF, Kiira at GPF, Alena and Adelina at Skate America, Liza at TEB. Just about the only people she hasn't beaten is Carolina and Yuna.
I don't see someone who won both her GP events and got a silver medal at GPF as being second tier at all. And I think while she needs that 3-3, she in the meanwhile has improved greatly in other aspects of her skating. She's not just being given better scores, she's skating better period.
Ashley beat them when they are really terrible. Mao only needs 5 clean triple in the LP to beat Ashley with 6 clean triples. Mao can beat her in the SP.
Ashley has some points advantage over Akiko, so if both are clean, she would come out ahead.
Ashley can definitely beat Kiira, but not that easy.
Honestly, do you think that a clean Ashley will place anywhere near a clean Mao, Yuna, Carolina? She's second tier. She has to count on others to make mistakes, and she has to be at her best for her to break through. That is second tier.
She's been top tier all season among this group of competitors. That top tier consisted of Ashley, Mao and Akiko. BUT with Yu-Na and Carolina in the mix, Ashley drops down to second tier along with Akiko.
A lot of cards would have to fall into place for Ashley to win worlds this year but it's not impossible...just very improbable. I think just making it to the podium this year would be an accomplishment.
Mao doesn't need 5 clean triples. That's too many. Like 2 or 3.
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