US Ladies Who Might Retire After 2014? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

US Ladies Who Might Retire After 2014?

pangtongfan

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Wagner - One or two more seasons, or retire if she won some medal at Worlds and Olympics

Nagasu - One or two more years, or retire if she makes the world and olympic teams this two seasons.

Zhang, Flatt and Czisney- They will retire.

Gold, Gao and Agnes- Unti 2018

Agree on all those, although I think Ashley might stay around until 2018, like you said pending what she does the next little while.
 

tulosai

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Dec 21, 2011
Totally true, and even if she did have a resurgence I dont see the judges being as enthusiastic as they were getting for her by the 2010 Worlds. There is only so long judges wait around for some burgeoning talent to come around, and the U.S star is now Wagner and their future hopes are people like Gold and Agnes. Mirai has already had countless opportunities and wasted them, and people are already done waiting for her I think. She should have atleast medaled at the 2010 Worlds. What a huge wasted opportunity that was.

She still has a chance to compete at Worlds and Olympics the next 15 months, and contribute to the U.S regaining 3 spots with a solid finish as number 2 or 3 U.S lady, but that is the max of her opportunity at this point me thinks.

I mean I dunno. Granted Ashley never had the same momentum as Mirai had before, but she was around and no one for several years before the second half of last year and then this year. Mirai is essentially in that same place now. If she 'pulls a Wagner' I think the judges would come around again.

That said, while I will always love Mirai and be a fan, I agree I'm not sure that is at all likely to happen.
 

heyang

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I mean I dunno. Granted Ashley never had the same momentum as Mirai had before, but she was around and no one for several years before the second half of last year and then this year. Mirai is essentially in that same place now. If she 'pulls a Wagner' I think the judges would come around again.

That said, while I will always love Mirai and be a fan, I agree I'm not sure that is at all likely to happen.

Ashley was the 'almost' girl while Mirai is the 'it girl who has been falling'. I think it might be better to perhaps refer to a Mirai resurgence as a 'Chen Lu'. Lulu won Bronze at Olympics in 94 (Mirai came close in her Olympics), World's in 95, 2nd in world to Kwan in 96, barely exited qualifying round at world's in 97 (finished in 24th or 25th?) and then won bronze at 98 Olympics.
 

pangtongfan

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Wagner did go from being a contender in the U.S and juniors who could seemingly never beat Flatt, Zhang, or Nagasu, or place higher than 3rd at the various events she was a contender in- U.S Nationals, Four Continents, World Juniors (2007-2010) to seemingly dropping forever from ever being a contender even at the U.S level again (late 2010-2011), to suddenly being a contender on the World level for the first time ever (2012-2013).

On another topic how would we rank the careers of the veteran Americans who have emerged since 2007 if they all retired now. Mine would be:

1. Meissner- World title, U.S title, Olympian, the end.
2. Wagner- International wins which were slim to none for the rest, including various grand prixs, Four Continents, Japan Open, U.S Champion, silver at GP final, even without an Olympics she beats all the remaining others already.
3. Czisny- GP final win, 2 U.S Titles, several grand prix wins. Come to think of it she could even rank over Wagner at this point, and perhaps should.
4. Flatt- U.S title, many U.S silvers, World Junior title, Olympian. Still ranks behind Wagner and Czisny clearly though as she never even won a senior international, unless there is a B one I am unaware of.
5. Nagasu- Ranks behind Flatt since she doesnt have as many U.S medals and top 2s, World appearances, and neither have won a grand prix or anything bigger than that. Plus didnt win a World Junior title.
6. Zhang- Amazing World Junior career, one bronze and two pewters at U.S Championships.
7. Hughes- already to the point of not worth going any further or into anymore detail so I will stop here.
 
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macy

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Nov 12, 2011
i did seem to forget how old christina actually is...to me she still seems like she's 17, but then i remember she's going to harvard lol. she is on the younger side of the bunch though. being that she almost did quit it's hard to predict how long she will stay. i'm going to be extremely sad when all of them retire in the next few years or so i'm sure, but i'm excited for newer seniors and up-and-coming juniors. a lot can happen from now until sochi, and obviously a LOT more can happen in the 4 years after that.

like someone else said, there's no way the baby russians will be a huge medal threat in sochi, they're way too young and can't compete with skaters like yuna and mao. as for a podium sweep in 2018, only time will tell. there are some talented US and japanese girls coming up and 5 or 6 years is a lot of time to improve until then.

after ashley, mirai, and alissa are gone i see gracie or agnes winning nats easily. i really don't think caroline will ever be a contender for gold and honestly even if mirai sticks around for a bit i think her nerves will get in the way again. i don't see her getting up to what she was in 2010.
 

FlattFan

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i did seem to forget how old christina actually is...to me she still seems like she's 17, but then i remember she's going to harvard lol. she is on the younger side of the bunch though. being that she almost did quit it's hard to predict how long she will stay. i'm going to be extremely sad when all of them retire in the next few years or so i'm sure, but i'm excited for newer seniors and up-and-coming juniors. a lot can happen from now until sochi, and obviously a LOT more can happen in the 4 years after that.

like someone else said, there's no way the baby russians will be a huge medal threat in sochi, they're way too young and can't compete with skaters like yuna and mao. as for a podium sweep in 2018, only time will tell. there are some talented US and japanese girls coming up and 5 or 6 years is a lot of time to improve until then.

after ashley, mirai, and alissa are gone i see gracie or agnes winning nats easily. i really don't think caroline will ever be a contender for gold and honestly even if mirai sticks around for a bit i think her nerves will get in the way again. i don't see her getting up to what she was in 2010.

If Caro does a clean short and 5 triples long, it will take an upset of miracle proportion for one of the russians to beat her.

Ashley isn't a top tier skater. I can't believe people think she gonna win World. If she indeed won World, she would out-Kimmie Kimmie to be the worst world champion in decades. She isn't cut from the same cloth as Mao, Yuna, Carolina, Michelle, Shizuka, Irina, Lu Chen, Maria B, Tara, Yuka, Kristi, Midori.
 

pangtongfan

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If Caro does a clean short and 5 triples long, it will take an upset of miracle proportion for one of the russians to beat her.

Ashley isn't a top tier skater. I can't believe people think she gonna win World. If she indeed won World, she would out-Kimmie Kimmie to be the worst world champion in decades. She isn't cut from the same cloth as Mao, Yuna, Carolina, Michelle, Shizuka, Irina, Lu Chen, Maria B, Tara, Yuka, Kristi, Midori.

Kostner is definitely not staying past 2014, and I believe the poster you are replying to was referring to Caroline Zhang never being a threat for U.S gold (which seems almost certain).

I agree on Ashley most likely. I do think she can win a bronze at Worlds or Olympics, and maybe even a silver if alot of things happen, but not gold.
 

guanchi

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Mar 31, 2012
If Caro does a clean short and 5 triples long, it will take an upset of miracle proportion for one of the russians to beat her.

Ashley isn't a top tier skater. I can't believe people think she gonna win World. If she indeed won World, she would out-Kimmie Kimmie to be the worst world champion in decades. She isn't cut from the same cloth as Mao, Yuna, Carolina, Michelle, Shizuka, Irina, Lu Chen, Maria B, Tara, Yuka, Kristi, Midori.

Where's Miki???:p:biggrin:
 

silverlake22

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Nov 12, 2009
Czisny will retire after 2014, I think she's just sticking around now to give one last shot and see if she can make the Olympic team, and also not to retire on such a bad note as her epic meltdown at the 2012 Worlds.

Caroline and Rachael I think will be done after 2014, they've been dumped by the judges, Rachael has a lot of other things going on in her life, and Caroline hasn't started college yet I don't think so it would make sense if she retired and then went to school full time.

Gracie and Agnes will stay past 2014, probably until 2018, regardless of if they make the Olympics and if so, how they place there.

Christina and Ashley are the question marks. If Ashley continues to do so well internationally, and say just misses a medal at the Olympics, or were to get silver at Worlds or something, then I could see her staying, as long as the judges continue to give her good marks and she stays hungry results wise in the sense that Olympic/World gold, or medals in general, are possible post-Sochi and she isn't totally satisfied with what she's won by then (IE she doesn't win the Olympics and Worlds this/next season...which I'm not expecting).

Christina idk, depending on what happens at Nationals, if she's top 2 and goes to Worlds and does well, I could see her taking a year off Harvard next season to try and make the Olympic team then depending on if she makes it and how she's doing internationally, she may stay past 2018 and continue with Harvard. She'd be graduated by 2018 anyways, so I think a lot will come down to her results between now and the 2014 Olympics and how she's handling her schoolwork or time off if that's what she chooses to do.
 

pangtongfan

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Czisny will retire after 2014, I think she's just sticking around now to give one last shot and see if she can make the Olympic team, and also not to retire on such a bad note as her epic meltdown at the 2012 Worlds.

Caroline and Rachael I think will be done after 2014, they've been dumped by the judges, Rachael has a lot of other things going on in her life, and Caroline hasn't started college yet I don't think so it would make sense if she retired and then went to school full time.

Gracie and Agnes will stay past 2014, probably until 2018, regardless of if they make the Olympics and if so, how they place there.

Christina and Ashley are the question marks. If Ashley continues to do so well internationally, and say just misses a medal at the Olympics, or were to get silver at Worlds or something, then I could see her staying, as long as the judges continue to give her good marks and she stays hungry results wise in the sense that Olympic/World gold, or medals in general, are possible post-Sochi and she isn't totally satisfied with what she's won by then (IE she doesn't win the Olympics and Worlds this/next season...which I'm not expecting).

Christina idk, depending on what happens at Nationals, if she's top 2 and goes to Worlds and does well, I could see her taking a year off Harvard next season to try and make the Olympic team then depending on if she makes it and how she's doing internationally, she may stay past 2018 and continue with Harvard. She'd be graduated by 2018 anyways, so I think a lot will come down to her results between now and the 2014 Olympics and how she's handling her schoolwork or time off if that's what she chooses to do.

You covered everyone but Nagasu, hehe.
 

silverlake22

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Nov 12, 2009
Oh Mirai. Yeah I think she'll be done after 2014, unless she doesn't make the Sochi team and decides she really wants to reinvent herself and make a run for 2018, sort of like how Ashley did after 2010 nats. But Mirai has already been to the Olympics, so I do wonder about motivation with that one.
 

macy

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Nov 12, 2011
i really don't think mirai will stay past 2014. her prime is past her and i honestly don't think the fire is 100% back, i don't see the spark as bright as it was in 2009-2010. i have confidence in ashley and i think she has the potential to win worlds this year. it's a really deep field but she has proved herself to the judges and they seem to be behind her. she has such a hunger and a drive that i think anything is possible for her. it's been such a long time since the US has had a skater like that. she's pretty much on mao's level now, and she has been more inconsistent than ashley has this year. it will be interesting to see how yuna holds herself together but i'm sure she will place top 3 at worlds with good skates, and will win with clean skates. i do think ashley could do it though, or in the future if yuna blows it away this year.
 

drivingmissdaisy

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Feb 17, 2010
i have confidence in ashley and i think she has the potential to win worlds this year.

I would love to see this happen, but I think it's unlikely because she has never delivered two programs with the technical content needed to beat YuNa. She typically two-foots the 3T in her combos and will lose GOE for that. She hasn't needed the 3-3s to do well this season but hopefully she will put it in her Nationals and/or 4CC programs for practice. The risk might cost her these title(s) but I don't think doing them for the first time this season at Worlds would be wise.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
Right now Yu Na Kim, Mao Asada, and Carolina Kostner are all clearly above Wagner for Worlds. She is basically slotted to finish 4th just like last year on paper. That said I do have a hunch she will win a bronze or silver (more likely the bronze) at Worlds this year. The reason being I am pretty sure on of those others (most likely Asada or Kostner) will screw up somewhat and she will come through by delivering a strong performance. The fact there are even people in this thread who think Nagasu can beat her at Nationals, speaks volumes to what a long shot the World title is for Wagner right now. If she was any serious contender for the World title nobody would dare even suggest Nagasu or any of other current U.S ladies were any competition to her. After all if there were Yu Na Kim or Mao Asada at the U.S Nationals instead there would be no talk of anyone else winning, Nagasu skating the best she is capable of now was nowhere near a jokish 3 triple Mao at NHK.
 

R.D.

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Jul 26, 2003
I don't see Alissa staying until 2014 at all, especially after her disastrous season she had last year. I don't see her coming back in top form like in 2010-2011, having an injury and still recovering from surgery. If she does come back strong at nationals as much as I would love to see her do so, i hope she places 3rd-ish and not in the top 2. As horrible as that sounds to me being a huge fan of hers (I have a silhouette of her layback tattooed on my back with the words "make it happen" as a symbol of my love of skating and she is also my role model), we can't afford to take the chance. I would be surprised if she even decides to compete next season.

Actually, I do. If she is in reasonable health, I don't see why she wouldn't at least give it a shot. Remember, this is the woman that almost everyone thought would give up after 2010, and then she comes back and rises arguably to the highest point of her career. Now, it can be argued that she might be at the LOWEST point of her career, and it remains to be seen if she can bounce back, but I'm almost sure she'll at least try. Only reason she wouldn't is if she's physically incapable of doing so.

I don't see Caroline continuing much longer either. She has improved but her programs aren't able to compete with the top skaters, especially looking at her GP results this year. I see her placing in the top 6 or so with a couple of clean or very good skates, but I don't think we'll see her to 2014. Whenever she decides to retire, I will miss her spins dearly along with alissa's (no more beautiful laybacks )

Zhang's comeback was really one of the biggest stories concerning American ladies last year, and unfortunately she seems to have taken somewhat of a step back. But again, she tends to have her peak later in the season. Unfortunately for her, I think she will find it very difficult to rise above 3rd even with the improvements she has made. The level of competition has simply risen above her.


I know a lot of people want to see Rachael retire, and as big of a fan of hers I am I agree that it's time. She is no longer a skater who is also a student, but a student who skates. I miss the old Rachael so much and I don't think we'll ever get that back especially with her decision to skip nats this year and focus on school work. She doesn't remotely have a chance to get to the olympics again. i think she'll call it a career in a few months IMO.

That bolded statement is profound. She is not a SKATER that happens to be a student, but a student that happens to skate. Big difference. If she wants to excel, eventually she will have to choose one of the two, and I think she has already made that choice. Even if she wanted to immerse herself in skating, she can't because of her injuries. So she really didn't have much choice anyway.

I don't think we'll see her back. Instead, she'll remain in this pseudo-retirement mode like so many others before her (Kwan, Cohen, Meissner, etc.). Anyway, she's already been to the Olympics which is an accomplishment in itself. She should count herself very lucky and consider her skating career a relative success.
 

pangtongfan

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Jun 16, 2010
Other than Flatt nobody is retiring before 2014. With the Olympics so close by and a good chance the U.S will have 3 spots, everyone will take a shot at it.
 

kwanatic

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We already know three of the top 5 world contenders will be retiring after Sochi: Yu-Na Kim, Carolina Kostner, Akiko Suzuki. I would put Kiira Korpi in that group as well. I don't know about Mao Asada though...her goal is to win Olympic Gold and I'm not too sure she'll be leaving before that regardless of what the field is looking like! She strikes me as one who might pull a Michelle Kwan and continue to compete until her body forces her to retire.

Looking at the US ladies...

Ashley: I think Ashley will take advantage of the changing of the guard. After Sochi the majority of the top names will be exiting the sport. That's a prime time for Ashley (who is already a front-runner) to rack up some titles. She'll have the experience and the credibility. The newbies will still be adjusting and maturing so I think it would be a good opportunity for her to win the big titles. I don't know if she'd stay in until 2018 but I think she'll have at least another two years left in her. Her chances of winning gold in Sochi are on the lower end but I think her shot at a medal is pretty decent at this point.

Mirai: To me motivation will be Mirai's biggest factor. When she's motivated and focused, she's a top-notch competitor. When she's unfocused and lazy, she blends in with the rest of the pack. Mirai has a little bit of fire to her this year and a lot more fight. She's a strong contender for the world team this year and if she continues to improve the way she has been, she'll be setting herself up nicely to be a strong contender for the Olympic team again. If she's motivated to continue to compete I think she'll continue. But if it's not driving her the way it needs to, I think she may hang around for an extra season before exiting. I really want to see her hang around...she's barely tapped her potential in this sport. She's capable of doing what Ashley did last year. She just needs to find that consistency, confidence and drive, and push herself to the top.

Gracie: Gold is very green (lol!) so I'm fairly certain she'll be around all the way through 2018 unless she finds something better to do or starts sucking really bad. She has huge jumps and loads of potential but she still needs another year or two to mature and learn. I think she has a good shot at making the team in Sochi but I don't see her on the podium there...

Agnes: Her talent is amazing but she's been a bit of a disappointment. She's never gained any kind of traction on the GP circuit. Her brilliance is sporadic and, oftentimes, fleeting which makes it hard to peg where she'll be after Sochi. If she gains consistency in her jumps, she'd be a big contender for the team. If she continues to be a constant wildcard I think the judges will push her out before she's ready to go. I'd like to see her hang around past Sochi for a few years though.

Christina: Again, motivation will determine whether she continues past Sochi. She started off strongly this year but hasn't really matched it since. If she's comfortable maintaining her school/skate lifestyle and can manage it, I think she should continue. She's another skater who has a lot of potential and is just now figuring things out. I'd like to see her stay for a few more years and really develop her style and personality on the ice. She has the potential to be an amazing skater.

Alissa: It's hard for me to imagine her competing this year at nationals. She had one really solid season and then pretty much regressed the next season. Add the injury, older age, and the fact that her jumps were never that great to begin with, I'm doubtful she'll compete past nationals next year. I can't see her continuing after Sochi at this point. I feel sad for her b/c it's shaping up to be just like 2010 where she's completely shut out from making the team. Stars would have to align in a serious way for Alissa to make it to Sochi IMO...

Caroline: I adore her hard work and persistence but I don't see her being close to making it to worlds this year or Sochi next year. I think she'll give it her all and try to make the team but after nationals next year I think she'll be done...

Rachael: At this point it feels like Rachael has moved on and I say kudos. She's been to the Olympics, skated well and placed well. There's no way she can top what she did back in 2010 and, honestly, I don't think she'll bother to try. I'll be surprised if she competes at all next season.


To recap:

Stay Past Sochi: Ashley, Gracie
Toss Up: Mirai, Agnes, Christina
Adios After Sochi: Alissa, Caroline, Rachael
 
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FlattFan

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Jan 4, 2010
Where's Miki???:p:biggrin:

Ooops. :)
Poor Miki, so forgettable. And for the record, I do think highly of her and she's definitely worthy of the 2 titles. As a WC, she doesn't stick out like a sore thump like Kimmie or would-be Ashley. Miki needs some serious materials if she's coming back.
 

FlattFan

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Jan 4, 2010
Right now Yu Na Kim, Mao Asada, and Carolina Kostner are all clearly above Wagner for Worlds. She is basically slotted to finish 4th just like last year on paper. That said I do have a hunch she will win a bronze or silver (more likely the bronze) at Worlds this year. The reason being I am pretty sure on of those others (most likely Asada or Kostner) will screw up somewhat and she will come through by delivering a strong performance. The fact there are even people in this thread who think Nagasu can beat her at Nationals, speaks volumes to what a long shot the World title is for Wagner right now. If she was any serious contender for the World title nobody would dare even suggest Nagasu or any of other current U.S ladies were any competition to her. After all if there were Yu Na Kim or Mao Asada at the U.S Nationals instead there would be no talk of anyone else winning, Nagasu skating the best she is capable of now was nowhere near a jokish 3 triple Mao at NHK.

Seriously!
Wagner will need the top girls to zamboni a few spots and she will have to be perfect to come near the podium. She will need to watch her back for Akiko as well. I think she might have 2-3 points advantage over Akiko for being US #1 but not enough a spread to guarantee a higher placement.

Other girls like Kiira, and one of the Russians could give her a good run as well.

Wagner is second tier, and always is. The sudden rise is reminiscent of Evan running up to the Olympics. Really inexplicable stuff.
 

gmyers

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Mar 6, 2010
Only tuktamisheva is a possibility and that's if she gets like 70 TES. Kostner and asada don't even really need jumps! Yu-na combines both jumps and the rest of Tes and pcs but right now jumps are the least important element in ladies skating.
 
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