Now leonova has no competitions so if there was improvement no one would know. She just waits for next season now. Her seasons over. Now the federation has committed to gosviani for some reason because Russian nationals don't really count. The she can go to euros and worlds and get all 4s or 5s in pcs.
No, she can still go to Worlds if she skates well at the test at the Russian Cup FinalOriginally Posted by gmyers
Leonova's PCS this season when she isn't skating well are high 50s for the FS, so that's like 5 points higher than Liza in the FS, say 8 points overall. So Liza just needs to score 8 TES points higher between her 2 programs to top Leonova's score, and considering the content Liza attempts and usually executes, and the lack of content Leonova's been putting out this season, it's easy to see how Liza has done much better. 8 points between 2 programs is not that much of a cushion, especially when one skater in question is a master technician and the other has been struggling to rotate her 2a recently.
Also if Gosviani skates well at Euros her PCS should be fine. Not spectacular for sure, but if she lands the jumps, they should be close to 50. Usually if someone comes out and lands a bunch of triples the judges don't lowball the PCS too much, we saw that with Silete at Worlds last year, and even Korobeynikova going into Euros was pretty unknown, having only competed in junior international competitions and only that season, and she came in 3rd in the FS at Euros (with respectable PCS of 50ish). Pogorilaya was also new to the international scene this year and she won a JGP and won bronze (one point from silver) at the JGPF. If you land the jumps the judges don't tank your PCS even if they don't really have any clue who you are. So yeah, maybe Leonova has 10 points or so in PCS on Gosviani, but she was held up hugely at Nats and Nikol still beat her, so clearly, PCS is not that important when one skater in consideration is really landing hardly any content, and the other is landing ambitious content...
One or more singled or doubled jumps and gosviani has nothing and offers nothing. You saw that with korobeynikova. Then you might as well have not even had a third spot at all. They must land every single jump perfectly. That's rare. And sotnimova is terrible when she has any competition! Gp event or nebelhorn. You really want to send gosviani who must land every jump perfectly, sotnikova who crumbles completely against the slightest competition and even tuktamisheva has a history of poor short programs mixed with lower pcs for all. I hope leonova does do well if she goes to the Russian cup final because like two spots could be useless with gosviani and sotnikova.
1) Leonova has the Russian Cup final and there's plenty of international competitions that she could enter. She might still be sent to Worlds (my guess is she will be unless Gosvianni skates incredibly well at Euros).
2) Euros are very soon so it's highly unlikely Leonova would suddenly miraculously improve in such a short space of time.
3) Russian Federation hasn't 'commited to Gosvianni'. They've decided to send her to Euros because she was the third highest placed age-eligible skater. Yes, they could have gone with Leonova instead but since she's had a terrible season so far, there was no argument to be made there.
4) Gosvianni will not get PCS in 4s and 5s at Euros.
Gosviani's pcs will definitely be in the 4's and 5's in the sp. Maybe in the fs they will go up but that depends on how she does in the sp and if she does all her jumps. So if she gets a good spot in the fs order and again does all her jumps maybe high 5's. But she could never be seen ever again at euros or a gp event. She's probably going to skate first being the least experienced skater on the entry list.
If Leonova's jumps don't improve I would still rather bet on her than gosviani because if gosviani is not flawless on jumps there's nothing there. Just low pcs and low Tes. And you need someone To be a better backup because of Sotnikovas generally horrible season too. Makarova or leonova. Nationals order is nothing for the third spot. Kovtun didn't do well and he's going.
If we were speculating how one could have done better, Abott would have been multiple world medalist. Leonova had every chance to beat Giovani but she didnt. Her programs this year are not good, especially the Lp(s). So what if Giovanni is not in top 10 in Euros, it is not end of world for a new skater. Didnt they send Polina K. last year? Maybe RF is protecting Leonova, one more skate like the one she had this season and her internation profile might be ruined for good.
No way. If she bombs maybe. But if she lands her jumps, she will get 6's at least.
Pogorilaya is an unknown and got 6s for PCS at the JGPF, and PCS in juniors tends to be lower anyways so, I think if Gosviani skates well at Euros her PCS could be in the high 5s-low 6s for SP, and solid 6s in the FS.
Well, the PCS definitely did not held her up at GP events. Being 7th and 8th out of 10... And it is not like if her GP events were full of the top skaters. How she skated at GP events, she would be lucky to end up around 15th place at worlds.
That's what I predict as well.
Funnily enough, for the Pairs and Ice Dance, my choices are still the same as they were at the start of the season:
Pairs
Volosozhar/Trankov (of course!)
Kavaguti/Smirnov (they’re still good enough to fight for the podium and, let’s face it, they’re probably going to retire after the 2014 Olympics, so better make the most of them while you still can!)
Bazarova/Larionov (Stolbova/Klimov did tempt me, but I think Vera and Yuri just have the edge over them at the moment)
Ice Dance
Ilinykh/Katsalapov
Bobrova/Soloviev
Riazanova/Tkachenko (although I thought a lot of the couples that competed in the Grand Prix series and at Russian Nationals could be ones to watch for the future, I think Ekaterina and Ilia are safe for now…)
Men’s
For the Men’s, I made a minor change to my choice after watching the Russian Nationals. It’s the same 4 guys, but just a different order of preference.
My choice before Russian Nationals:
Evgeniy Plushenko (how could you leave out the great man when he’s available?!)
Konstantin Menshov (a late bloomer, but has really impressed me in the short time I’ve seen him)
Artur Gachinskiy (yeah, I’m giving him one more shot. But, if he disappoints at Euros, Voronov’s in for the World’s!)
After watching the Russian Nationals, I would swap Menshov and Voronov around, so that Sergei is the definite starter, and Konstantin is the reserve.
Ladies
Then we come to the Ladies.
Ever since last season, I have been trying to decide which of the Russian girls I would send to the European and World Championships. And, my choices have changed quite often. So, after a reminder of the team used last year, here is a summary of my thoughts.
2012 European and World team:
Alena Leonova
Ksenia Makarova
Polina Korobeynikova
My choice at start of this season:
Alena Leonova
Adelina Sotnikova
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
My choice after Cup of Russia (by which stage we had seen all the Russian girls once):
Alena Leonova
Polina Korobeynikova
Adelina Sotnikova
My choice after Grand Prix Finals:
Alena Leonova
Adelina Sotnikova
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
My choice after Russian Nationals:
Polina Korobeynikova
Adelina Sotnikova
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
As somebody who is a big fan of Alena Leonova, I hate to say this, but I think she’s finished. I don’t know what happened during the summer, but she has just lost all confidence. Even before she starts her routines, she looks defeated.
As for Makarova, she has been disappointing for a couple of years now. I think that because of her pedigree (i.e. being Larisa and Oleg’s daughter), we set our expectations too high. And although she is a very good skater, Ksenia just didn’t live up to those high expectations.
If this was a couple of years ago, I would say “give them a couple of years, and they’ll come back stronger than ever.” But, there are that many brilliant young skaters coming through, that I doubt Alena and Ksenia will get another chance. It’s a shame, but that’s what happens when you’re up against such a deep field of talent.
It was obvious when she got into the team last season that Polina K was just a stop-gap until Adelina and Liza were old enough to compete. However, in my eyes, Korobeynikova has improved immensely since last season, to the extent that I now think she deserves a place on the team in her own right.
So, there are my choices. It will be interesting to see who does actually get in...
CaroLiza_fan
Now i'm not a fan of Alena Leonova, infact i really dislike her skating, But it is ridiculous that they still didnt put her on the Euro or World team.
I feel like Gosviyani had probably the skate of her life at nationals, and judges at euros and worlds ( assuming she makes the scores ) wont be so nice to the two-footed jumps. Also she is not going to get even close to the components that Leonova would get.
Yes leonova has under-achieved this season and in other seasons, but when it comes down to Worlds she is always ready and prepared. She pulled out a 4th place finish in 2011 Worlds when she had a unsuccessful grand prix season. And 2012 she got 2nd at worlds when she barely scraped into the grand prix final that season and somehow did enough to finish 3rd at final. Yes she has had another not so great grand prix season, but im sure she would be ready by the time worlds arrives
Pcs for the winning Jrs is lower than the senior winners but generally higher than if they were at a senior competition giving the same performance. Like korobeynikova at euros 2012 with two mistakes in the sp did get pcs in the 4's and one component was 5.11 so pcs for gosviani could look like that.
Leo Iva knows she was dumped by someone no even eligible so who really knows the effect that's going to have. Everyone is assuming the effect will be great and terrific and she'll be landing all her jumps because of the "slap" or "kick" but who knows. Gosviani only beat her narrowly anyway.
At a certain point the rus fed needs to cut ties with someone who under performs. She never won nationals nor has she medaled at Euros. She did have ONE good GPF and won a silver medal at worlds but lets face it, that was and will be the best she will ever skate. She has had plenty of opportunities to prove she is better than the little sprites that are coming up in the ranks but she hasn't done it so far. I wouldn't take the chance on her either.
If it were and injury, surgery or even something like a blade breaking, I may want to give her a pass but she gave no explanations with why she is doing so poorly and she doesn't seem to want to change.
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