Ice Dance: Predictions Hopes and Thoughts

[Whitneyskates]

Unless Meryl and Charlie forget to show up, they'll win their 5th title. But what does everyone think the rest of the podium will look like?

I think the Shibs will hold on to 2nd place. Even during their off competition, they still outscored the other U.S teams, besides D&W of course. I think the real battle will be again for bronze and the 3rd world spot. IMO,I really think C&B could take it. They have great programs and seem really prepared this year. I'm not feeling H/D's programs this year and would actually be surprised to see them in 3rd. As for K/G-S, I don't think they will make the podium. I like them but their dances are weak this year, especially their FD. All their FD's are starting to look the same to me both elements wise and music wise.

My predictions:

D/W
S/S
C/B
H/D
K/G-S

[pangtongfan]

I predict:

1st- Davis & White
Silver- Shibutanis
Bronze- Hubbel & Donahue
4th- Chock & Bates

[FSGMT]

Yes, D/W and the Shibs are pretty locked for Gold and Silver, unless some of them doesn't show up or something disastrous (like a couple of falls in a step sequence ), but the battle for the Bronze will be interesting: C/B have surely the best SD and Polka technique (thanks to Shpilband), but H/D could challenge them in the FD (remember that they were second in that segment of the comp at TEB), I feel that K/G-S will be really in 5th place, even if I like their programs this year...

[pangtongfan]

I think there is some major exagerration by some how far the Shibutanis are ahead of the rest. The Shibutanis are probably only about 8th or 9th in the World right (counting Weaver & Poje who sadly wont be at Worlds this year probably). I am not basing that just on their result at Worlds last year, but in general how competitions have gone in the last year there are 7 teams clearly above them at this point, and even the #3 Russian team could well beat them these days. The 3rd U.S team was 10th at Worlds last year. If the Shibutanis even fall once I would predict them going down to 3rd place. Meanwhile Davis & White would need to fall about 5 times to lose to the Shibutanis at this point.

[sky_fly20]

I think there is some major exagerration by some how far the Shibutanis are ahead of the rest. The Shibutanis are probably only about 8th or 9th in the World right (counting Weaver & Poje who sadly wont be at Worlds this year probably). I am not basing that just on their result at Worlds last year, but in general how competitions have gone in the last year there are 7 teams clearly above them at this point, and even the #3 Russian team could well beat them these days. The 3rd U.S team was 10th at Worlds last year. If the Shibutanis even fall once I would predict them going down to 3rd place. Meanwhile Davis & White would need to fall about 5 times to lose to the Shibutanis at this point.

true, I would put Hubbell/Donohue as No.2 and potentially could take silver at nationals also,
they hae done well in their short season together and could beat the Shibs

[dorispulaski]

I dunno. I have not been impressed with Hubbell / Donohue this year at all. And the Shibs FD is really, really nice. I don't think H&D have a shot at 2nd, and may have trouble defending their third place spot against Chock/Bates.

Why:

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtsdto.htm

If you look at the top ISU total dance scores for the season:
TOTAL
1. D&W (GPF) 183.39
8. Shibutanis (NHK) 154.56
10. Chock & Bates (CoC) 149.54
12. Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 145.23
15. Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt (SkAm) 141.41

H&D have a Long Way to go to catch the Shibs, over 9 points.

Let's see where those points come from:

Short Dance
1. Davis & White (GPF) 73.20
10. Shibutanis (NHK) 60.84
12. Chock & Bates (CoC) 59.26
18. Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 56.54
29. Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt (SkAm) 53.89 (they had 56.49 at Salt Lake)

The key thing here is how their TES ranks:
Davis & White (GPF) 35.15 /BV 28.50
Chock & Bates (CoC) 30.90/BV 28.50
Shibutanis (NHK) 29.36/ BV 26.00
Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 27.85/BV 25.50
Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt 27.17/BV 25.00

Note that H&D have really been having problems getting their base value up in the SD while Chock & Bates are getting BV equal to D&W, and have TES higher than the Shibs.

Looking at the contenders for the bronze:
H&D had two GP's (by virtue of their trip to Worlds last year) and one senior B
They finished 3rd at Finlandia, 4th at TEB, and 5th at SC (note that while C&B's & K&G-S each had only one shot to get a season's best, H&D had 2 chances to do better than C&B or the Shibs in an SD and failed both times.

C&B had 2 Senior B's and one GP, CoC.
They won Nebelhorn, finished 4th at Salt Lake due to a debacle in the FD, and finished 4th at CoC.

K&G-S had two Senior B's and one GP, SkAm.
They won Graz, and finished 3rd at Salt Lake, and finished 4th at SkAm.

Now let's look at the FD's. H&D did better technically here, but their marks still did not come that near to the Shibutanis, and still were behind C&B who had only the one chance at an ISU season's best, vs. H&D's two:

1. Davis & White (GPF) 110.19 (TES 52.56/BV 40.20)
7. Shibutanis (NHK) 93.72 (TES 45.44/BV 38.20)
10. Chock & Bates (CoC) 90.28 (TES 45.92/BV 38.70)
11. Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 88.69 (TES 44.61 BV 39.70)
13. Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt (SkAm) 87.52 (TES 44.17 BV 38.20)

So no, H&D haven't been that impressive so far this year. Ice is slippery. Alex could have health problems again. C&B could fall. But if all teams skate their best, I certainly do not see H&D passing the Shibs this season at US Nationals. And if H&D don't pull up their socks in the SD, they will go into the FD in 4th or even 5th place.