Ice Dance: Predictions Hopes and Thoughts

[Whitneyskates]

Unless Meryl and Charlie forget to show up, they'll win their 5th title. But what does everyone think the rest of the podium will look like?

I think the Shibs will hold on to 2nd place. Even during their off competition, they still outscored the other U.S teams, besides D&W of course. I think the real battle will be again for bronze and the 3rd world spot. IMO,I really think C&B could take it. They have great programs and seem really prepared this year. I'm not feeling H/D's programs this year and would actually be surprised to see them in 3rd. As for K/G-S, I don't think they will make the podium. I like them but their dances are weak this year, especially their FD. All their FD's are starting to look the same to me both elements wise and music wise.

My predictions:

D/W
S/S
C/B
H/D
K/G-S

[pangtongfan]

I predict:

1st- Davis & White
Silver- Shibutanis
Bronze- Hubbel & Donahue
4th- Chock & Bates

[FSGMT]

Yes, D/W and the Shibs are pretty locked for Gold and Silver, unless some of them doesn't show up or something disastrous (like a couple of falls in a step sequence ), but the battle for the Bronze will be interesting: C/B have surely the best SD and Polka technique (thanks to Shpilband), but H/D could challenge them in the FD (remember that they were second in that segment of the comp at TEB), I feel that K/G-S will be really in 5th place, even if I like their programs this year...

[pangtongfan]

I think there is some major exagerration by some how far the Shibutanis are ahead of the rest. The Shibutanis are probably only about 8th or 9th in the World right (counting Weaver & Poje who sadly wont be at Worlds this year probably). I am not basing that just on their result at Worlds last year, but in general how competitions have gone in the last year there are 7 teams clearly above them at this point, and even the #3 Russian team could well beat them these days. The 3rd U.S team was 10th at Worlds last year. If the Shibutanis even fall once I would predict them going down to 3rd place. Meanwhile Davis & White would need to fall about 5 times to lose to the Shibutanis at this point.

[sky_fly20]

I think there is some major exagerration by some how far the Shibutanis are ahead of the rest. The Shibutanis are probably only about 8th or 9th in the World right (counting Weaver & Poje who sadly wont be at Worlds this year probably). I am not basing that just on their result at Worlds last year, but in general how competitions have gone in the last year there are 7 teams clearly above them at this point, and even the #3 Russian team could well beat them these days. The 3rd U.S team was 10th at Worlds last year. If the Shibutanis even fall once I would predict them going down to 3rd place. Meanwhile Davis & White would need to fall about 5 times to lose to the Shibutanis at this point.

true, I would put Hubbell/Donohue as No.2 and potentially could take silver at nationals also,
they hae done well in their short season together and could beat the Shibs

[dorispulaski]

I dunno. I have not been impressed with Hubbell / Donohue this year at all. And the Shibs FD is really, really nice. I don't think H&D have a shot at 2nd, and may have trouble defending their third place spot against Chock/Bates.

Why:

http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtsdto.htm

If you look at the top ISU total dance scores for the season:
TOTAL
1. D&W (GPF) 183.39
8. Shibutanis (NHK) 154.56
10. Chock & Bates (CoC) 149.54
12. Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 145.23
15. Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt (SkAm) 141.41

H&D have a Long Way to go to catch the Shibs, over 9 points.

Let's see where those points come from:

Short Dance
1. Davis & White (GPF) 73.20
10. Shibutanis (NHK) 60.84
12. Chock & Bates (CoC) 59.26
18. Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 56.54
29. Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt (SkAm) 53.89 (they had 56.49 at Salt Lake)

The key thing here is how their TES ranks:
Davis & White (GPF) 35.15 /BV 28.50
Chock & Bates (CoC) 30.90/BV 28.50
Shibutanis (NHK) 29.36/ BV 26.00
Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 27.85/BV 25.50
Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt 27.17/BV 25.00

Note that H&D have really been having problems getting their base value up in the SD while Chock & Bates are getting BV equal to D&W, and have TES higher than the Shibs.

Looking at the contenders for the bronze:
H&D had two GP's (by virtue of their trip to Worlds last year) and one senior B
They finished 3rd at Finlandia, 4th at TEB, and 5th at SC (note that while C&B's & K&G-S each had only one shot to get a season's best, H&D had 2 chances to do better than C&B or the Shibs in an SD and failed both times.

C&B had 2 Senior B's and one GP, CoC.
They won Nebelhorn, finished 4th at Salt Lake due to a debacle in the FD, and finished 4th at CoC.

K&G-S had two Senior B's and one GP, SkAm.
They won Graz, and finished 3rd at Salt Lake, and finished 4th at SkAm.

Now let's look at the FD's. H&D did better technically here, but their marks still did not come that near to the Shibutanis, and still were behind C&B who had only the one chance at an ISU season's best, vs. H&D's two:

1. Davis & White (GPF) 110.19 (TES 52.56/BV 40.20)
7. Shibutanis (NHK) 93.72 (TES 45.44/BV 38.20)
10. Chock & Bates (CoC) 90.28 (TES 45.92/BV 38.70)
11. Hubbell & Donohue (TEB) 88.69 (TES 44.61 BV 39.70)
13. Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt (SkAm) 87.52 (TES 44.17 BV 38.20)

So no, H&D haven't been that impressive so far this year. Ice is slippery. Alex could have health problems again. C&B could fall. But if all teams skate their best, I certainly do not see H&D passing the Shibs this season at US Nationals. And if H&D don't pull up their socks in the SD, they will go into the FD in 4th or even 5th place.

[Mrs. P]

But consider that at worlds H/D barely beat them in the FD at Worlds considering the Shibs pretty much had a meltdown. And the Shibs tend to do better later in the season, particularly with their SD. I won't be surprised if we see big changes in both programs at Nationals based on the feedback they've received at their GPs.

Alex's health is the X factor here as it contributed to their poor showings last season at 4CC and World and at COR this season. Quite frankly until NHK, we had not seen a 100 percent Shibs team since last year's Nationals. I think NHK Trophy was the first competition where there were at least at 100 percent healthy, but even then I think they are capable of doing a lot better, particularly in their levels.

I still think they will hold on to second place. I do think that C/B will bridge the gap quite a bit between 2nd and 3rd. In 2011 it 18.6 points in 2012 it was 27.2 points. In the SB's that gap is only 5 points. But again, the Shibs has plenty of room (as far as levels) to score higher while C/B will likely need to work on +GOE since their base value is quite strong already.

[dorispulaski]

I agree with you, Mrs. P. Just to be clear, I had an ambiguous "they" in my first sentence. It is H&D that I think are going to have trouble keeping 3rd place vs. C&B, not the Shibs. (I edited the sentence to reflect that).

I think Shibs, providing they are healthy, will grab the silver again.

[blancanieves]

This is one of the most exciting and unpredictable contests for sure. I'm not confident about anyone's potential podium standing, except D/W. Numbers can be misleading, for me it's more about the context; I think it's more about following the arc of the teams. Where they start the season and how they evolve.

Teams have to fix different issues as they go along. Sometimes it's a matter of building stamina, or accommodating increased difficulty, or sometimes (worse) it's having to redesign a program. It's easy to accept V/M not getting their usual scores at the beginning of the season because we all have seen them take care of business year after year. We know it's just a process. With teams that are less established, there's more room to speculate that they are failing to perform when it's just a process for them as well.

Time is key. C/B, for example, got to start training for their season earlier than the Shibutanis or H/D who were competing at Worlds. It makes sense that their execution would be stronger off the gate. But things begin to even out after everyone begins to log in more practice over the season.

I hope my favorites do great, but I think we'll get a great competition no matter what.

[Mrs. P]

This is one of the most exciting and unpredictable contests for sure. I'm not confident about anyone's potential podium standing, except D/W. Numbers can be misleading, for me it's more about the context; I think it's more about following the arc of the teams. Where they start the season and how they evolve.

Teams have to fix different issues as they go along. Sometimes it's a matter of building stamina, or accommodating increased difficulty, or sometimes (worse) it's having to redesign a program. It's easy to accept V/M not getting their usual scores at the beginning of the season because we all have seen them take care of business year after year. We know it's just a process. With teams that are less established, there's more room to speculate that they are failing to perform when it's just a process for them as well.

Time is key. C/B, for example, got to start training for their season earlier than the Shibutanis or H/D who were competing at Worlds. It makes sense that their execution would be stronger off the gate. But things begin to even out after everyone begins to log in more practice over the season.

I hope my favorites do great, but I think we'll get a great competition no matter what.

I agree it will be a great competition!

[KKonas]

My take on Nationals Dance - Davis & White can bank on their 5th national title barring injury. I think the Shibutani’s have great basic skating skills, but were hurt last season due to Alex’s illness and subsequent performance problems. IMHO they have also been at somewhat of a disadvantage this season by staying in Canton. Clearly Zoueva (without Shpilband) has put most of her effort in the top two teams and has what I consider to be a skeleton crew to put more effort into any other teams. The Shibutani’s current SD is frankly an awful program. Their FD is better but again, hardly original for them and is not likely to put them anywhere near the world podium this year or even next year if nothing changes. However, they still have an edge for the silver medal at Nationals this season, but cannot make any major errors.
Meanwhile Chock & Bates made the smart choice by moving with Shpilband to be his top US skaters. Bates has always been a strong technician and Chock has greatly improved with Bates under Shpilband’s guidance. They have 2 good programs this season and have increased their overall speed to catch up with many of the top international teams and should make the World Team.
Hubbell & Donahue had great success for a new team working with Krylova & Camerlengo, but now Krylova & Camerlengo are stretched too thin – too many teams. Hubbell & Donahue do not have as great basic skills as the others and now have less primary attention to improve. Camerlengo, the best choreographer in that group, is choreographing programs for many international skaters, and travelling to competitions with many teams and as a result not so much in Detroit, so programs tend to stagnate. They will battle to win a spot on the World Team.
Kriengkrairut & Guiletti-Schmitt have crowd-pleasing programs and interesting and difficult lifts, but are not as speedy and do not have the power or the international experience that is needed to move into the top echelon of ice dance, so they will likely place 5th.

[pangtongfan]

I would be quite surprised if the Shibutanis dont take 2nd, I just took issue with the person who said they would have to fall 3 or 4 times, and seemed to be putting them in the same league as Davis & White. The Shibutanis are a long way from the World medalists they were 2 years ago, and it seems it will be a long time before they got up there again (if they ever do). Davis & White indeed would have to fall a good many times, maybe 6 times or so, to ever lose to the Shibutanis right now, but if Shibutanis even fell once, I could see them in trouble if one of Hubbel & Donahue or Chock & Bates have a great competition. They are clearly above those teams still but not by the chasm that Davis & White are above them, and any mistakes could open the door, especialy as the USFSA probably notes that the international judges seem to have their own the way down still this season. The Shibutanis are probably only about 8th or 9th in the World right now (counting W&P) and the 3rd U.S team about 10th or 11th, not that much difference.

[gmyers]

Davis and white could easily lose 6 or 7 points in falls and win and probably could skip a step sequence and win. I don't think they could not do two step sequences and win but maybe they could.

[golden411]

Agosto relishes role in U.S. ice dancing history
Five-time national champion keeping busy as coach, choreographer

By Lois Elfman, special to icenetwork.com
(01/17/2013)
http://web.icenetwork.com/news/artic...&vkey=ice_news

The article includes reflections on his own experiences at Nationals and on B/A's legacy. Excerpt:

Although Agosto will watch the U.S. championships from home, he'll still feel connected to the event. He remembers those early nationals, when the best part was hanging out in the competitors room at the official hotel.

"We were a bunch of kids running around having a great time," said Agosto, a four-time world medalist and the 2006 Olympic silver medalist. "When we'd skate, it would be amazing -- really fun and exciting."

He also takes great pride in how U.S. ice dancing transformed over the years he and Belbin competed -- from their winning the first world championships medal in 20 years by an American couple to bringing home the United States' first Olympic medal in 30 years to simply getting others to share his love of ice dancing.

"You saw this huge boost in energy," he said. "It changed everybody's perspective."

[dorispulaski]

It was a nice article! I love Tanith & Ben, for sure.

At SkAm, there was a billboard, advertising Ben Agosto. I saw Ben taking a photograph of himself on the billboard. It was too cute.