For Sochi, who is our besthope? Who'll be number 2 at Nationals. I think Mirai may be peaking again next year. It wont daunt her. Is she a possibility besides Grace?
For Sochi, who is our besthope? Who'll be number 2 at Nationals. I think Mirai may be peaking again next year. It wont daunt her. Is she a possibility besides Grace?
Last edited by dorispulaski; 01-04-2013 at 05:37 AM. Reason: praking?
Who are we assuming is going in as the National Champion?
Wagner, I believe, and this is what it's probably going to be, unless she injuries or bombs, but I think that the battl will be between Gold and Nagasu...Originally Posted by Tonichelle
Way to soon to look that far ahead. Hopefully the U.S has 3 spots by then. Wagner if she stays on course is a lock for an Olympic spot, the others still wide open at this point, however IF the 2nd U.S lady at Worlds this year helps the U.S regain 3 spots, she will be a near lock for 1 of the remaining 2 spots if she doesnt fall apart next season IMHO, leaving one open for the others to fight for.
I think with the downfall of Russia and Canada's lady lacking experience things are looking good for three spots.
I think it will be hard for Mirai. I was watching her 2010 programs last night and her body has changed so much since then that I don't think her build is as suited to doing the triples as it once was. In contrast Yuna and Mao have maintained similar builds in the last few years. I think we'll have 3 ladies in Sochi, my guess would be Ashley, Gracie, and someone currently off the radar like Angela.
Really? I think it'll be harder to get three spots this year than last year or the year prior, actually.
1. The first members of Russia's baby brigade are finally eligible for worlds. Leonova and Marakova were able to get three spots!!! With Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva, it should be at least equally easy for them.
2. Canada's lady definitely lacks experience. But a top ten spot is certainly within the realm of possibility.
3. Meanwhile, so many other skaters are fighting here. Korpi, Suzuki, Asada, Murakami, Kim, Kostner, Zijun Li, Mae Berenice Maete.... all have the ability to skate well enough to make it difficult for two ladies to earn that third spot. THAT stated, Wagner's best score along with Gao/Nagasu/Gold would be enough to get the third spot. But it would be a get, and would suggest that the two Americans skated at or above par.
4. I'd argue that the seismic shifts that took place in pairs means that it's the easiest discipline for any nation with two slots to earn a third one (four of the top 12 have either split up or been injured; five if you include Dube/Wolfe who've been question marks)
Downfall of Russia is right. Tuktamisheva has the worst pcs. Sotnikova likes to single her flips and fall a lot. Gosviani is a total no one. Russia will be lucky for 2 spots in ladies.
I think Russia will do okay. Liza T's PCS aren't the best but her TES should keep her close to the top 5 and even though Adelina is a headcase, even when she tanks she scores well. Both ladies have the hardest content (3-3s in the SP and LP and a 2a-3T in the LP as well) and are capable of scoring well enough to earn three spots. Alena has been MIA all year long so I'm not expecting much from her (she is going, right?).
The Russian's aren't dominating the way everyone assumed they would two years ago but I think they have a decent shot at getting three spots this year as well.
As for the OP's topic, I hope Ashley and Skater X are able to earn three spots this year. I'd love to see Ashley stay on top as the US champ and lead the team to Sochi. As for the other two spots, it's wide open right now.
A lot of people are putting their faith in Gracie based on her potential but until she's far from a lock for Sochi or even worlds this year. She has not proved herself to be a strong competitor yet. She's had one good SP and two mediocre LPs this season. I'm not convinced she's the best bet. I still don't see the hype about her...
If Mirai continues on the path she's on now and is able to add some better programs and consistency to her skating, she'd be a good candidate...If Christina settles into her style and really learns to sell her programs to the judges, she'd in the mix. If Agnes can find some consistency...if Alissa makes a full recovery and gets back to where she was in 2011...and then there are the newbies: Angela has all 5 triples including 3-3s and a lovely style, but she's unknown outside of the junior circuit...then there's Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Samantha Cesario...any one of these girls could have a breakout year and position themselves to get on that team.
It's way too early to guess and waaay too many thing that could factor in.
Last edited by kwanatic; 01-04-2013 at 01:51 PM.
too early for sochi 2nd u.s. lady
but you are right in getting 3 for u.s. in all displines going to be tough.
russia has 3 elizaveta, adelina those two alone will make it tough to get in top 10
china has zijun li, does any one know if kexin zhang going
finland has kiira korpi
japan 3 ladies of mao, akiko, kanako
canada, of kaetlyn does canada qualify two for worlds, if so have to count in amelie la coste. or 2nd canadian since in canada
france of mae bernice will 2nd france lady be anais ventard.
georgia, elene gedevanishvilli
germans lady of either natalie, sarah
sweden of victoria helgesson and joshi helgession
itlay =carolina kostner, valentina marchei
korea -yu na kim
anything can happen after the top 6 of yu-na mao carolina kostner, ashley, elizaveta, and kaetlyn 7-12 anyones guess
mens-
3 japanese men, daisuke, yuzuru, tahiko mura
russian evgeny
patrick chan possible kevin reynolds,
france- florent amodio possible brian joubert does he get to go.
czech-tomas verner,-does michael brezina get to go due to not going to nationals
spains, javier fernandez
Last edited by fairly4; 01-04-2013 at 01:45 PM. Reason: add men dance
dance
canadian
viture and moir i am assuming gilles and poirer makes the team. possible paul/islam
france pechalat /bourzat; carron & jones
russia, bobrova soloviev, ilynkh & katsalapov, riazonova & tkachakov (sorry about misspelled)
italy, cappellini and lanotte
german =zighanshina and gazsi
not easy.
pairs,
let see
german team of s/szolkowy, 2nd place finisher
russian 3 teams. v/t, k/s/, b/l
china team of pang/tong, 2nd place team
canadian 3 teams, duhamel/radford, i am assuming moore-towers/moscovitch, dube /wolfe, however the young teams of purdy/marinaro, and boback and beharry can upset the apple cart
italy, berton and hotarek
france, teams
since u.s. is possible sending new young teams in. difficult to say the least. can be done, but all u.s. skaters in all displines have to be on top of their game
At the gpf Liza did well on jumps and her tes was 63 but so was maos! Mao tied Liza on tes and then of course pcs was not even close! lizas jumps didn't mean anything because even though Mao is a terrible jumper she filled all her jumping slots and did grea spins and steps and got great goe. At worlds you will have Yuna and Carolina and akiko and Ashley all with much superior pcs and near equal Tes. Plus there are others as well. Lizas Tes isn't actually high enough to make up for the pcs being so atrociously awful. That's why she needs near 70 or above which may require triple Axels plus two 3/3's.
Dance won't be all that hard. D&W are unlikely to finish lower than 2nd, in which case 11th will do for 3 spots. And since the US has 3 spots this year, there are two teams (Shibs & some other team) with a shot at finishing high enough for 3 spots. So while it's not impossible (as ice is slippery), the discipline in which the US is most likely to have 3 spots for Olympics is dance.
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtsdto.htm
If you look at the top ISU total dance scores for the season:
1. D&W (GPF)
8. Shibutanis (NHK)
10. Chock & Bates (CoC)
12. Hubbell & Donohure (TEB)
15. Kriengkrairut & Giuletti-Schmitt (SkAm)
Now looking at the teams above KG/S, at least 2 would not be there if they are (USA)
(9)Stepanova & Bukin and (14) Papadakis & Cizeron are competing as juniors (and won't be at Worlds)
Consequenly, K &G-S would be in 11th place without these teams.
Hubbell and Donohue would be in 10th place without these teams
Chock & Bates would be in 9th without Stepanova & Bukin.
And that's assuming Weaver & Poje will be able to compete at Worlds
Pairs will be hard, even though a lot of good teams won't be competing, because the US ranks are so decimated that it is possible that Castelli & Shnapir may be the top US team at Worlds. With luck, the US should qualify for 2 teams, but 3 is asking a lot.
True. But once you get out of the top two tiers of skating (Yu-Na, Mao, Carolina, Ashley, Akiko), PCS is less of a factor and TES is what counts and that's where Liza can compete. She's a very long shot for a medal and an outside shot for top 5. But if she skates well and hits her jumps, she should be in the top 6 or 7 ladies this year.
I'd argue that three spots is most likely for the following countries/disciplines
Japan, Men and Ladies
Canada, Pairs
USA, Dance
Russia, Pairs
and Possible/Plausible
Canada, Dance
USA, Ladies
Russia, Dance and Ladies
France, Men
Germany, Pairs
China, Pairs
Anything else would qualify as a surprise.
Last edited by ImaginaryPogue; 01-04-2013 at 03:18 PM.
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