Second lady to represent US in Sochi?

[pangtongfan]

Really? I think it'll be harder to get three spots this year than last year or the year prior, actually.

1. The first members of Russia's baby brigade are finally eligible for worlds. Leonova and Marakova were able to get three spots!!! With Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva, it should be at least equally easy for them.

2. Canada's lady definitely lacks experience. But a top ten spot is certainly within the realm of possibility.

3. Meanwhile, so many other skaters are fighting here. Korpi, Suzuki, Asada, Murakami, Kim, Kostner, Zijun Li, Mae Berenice Maete.... all have the ability to skate well enough to make it difficult for two ladies to earn that third spot. THAT stated, Wagner's best score along with Gao/Nagasu/Gold would be enough to get the third spot. But it would be a get, and would suggest that the two Americans skated at or above par.

4. I'd argue that the seismic shifts that took place in pairs means that it's the easiest discipline for any nation with two slots to earn a third one (four of the top 12 have either split up or been injured; five if you include Dube/Wolfe who've been question marks)

I will put it as simply as possible. If Wagner skates very well she will place no lower than 4th. Suzuki wont beat her if she skates to her potential, and certainly none of the up and comers.

The 2nd U.S lady will definitely place atleast 9th (probably higher) if she has a decent competition, especialy if that is Gold or Nagasu. If they dont it means they skated poorly and didnt do their job. There is no way the ladies competition is going to be such a barnburner than the 2nd U.S skater wont easily be ensured top 10 with a good competition.

So unless one of the U.S ladies does not do what they should do, which is skate even reasonably well, the U.S will regain 3 spots, no question.

[suzukifan27]

The 2nd U.S lady will definitely place atleast 9th (probably higher) if she has a decent competition, .

Your 'analysis' is off base again!

Definitely: Asada, Wagner, Kostner, Kim, Suzuki are definitely going to beat the 2nd American!
Highly likely: 1-2 Russian, the 3rd Japanese, Korpi, Canadian are likely to beat the 2nd Amercian.
Top 9 are almost settled!

Competitive: the 3rd Russian, Zijun Li, 1-2 European skaters.

The 2nd American lady has less than 50/50 chance of being top 10.

[Mrs. P]

Just for the sake of discussion, the possible combos that would get 13 or fewer.

If the American Lady ranked highest at Worlds gets...
1 -- than American Lady No. 2 can finish as low as 12th
2 -- low as 11th
3 -- low as 10th
4 -- low as 9th
5 -- low as 8th
6 -- low as 7th

During the last year the USA earned three spots, 2007: Kimmie Meissner finished 4th while Emily Hughes finished 9th, giving them 13.
In 2008, when they lost the 3rd spot, Kimmie finished 7th while Bebe Liang finished 10th. (Ashley finished 16th)

World team (potential) participants in order of SB:
196.80 Mao Asada
190.63 Ashley Wagner
185.22 Akiko Suzuki
179.52 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
177.19 Kiira Korpi
176.68 Mirai Nagasu
176.45 Kaetlyn Osmond
175.03 Gracie Gold
174.25 Christina Gao
174.11 Zijun Li
168.96 ADelina Sotnikova
168.04 Kanako Murakami
160.52 Elene Gedevanishivi
158.79 Valentina Marchei
157.58 Mae Bernice Meite
157.27 Alena Leonova

So among senior-level skaters old enough for Worlds, Ashley is No. 2, Mirai is No. 6 and Gracie is No. 8. If Carolina and Yuna show up with higher SB (Euros or 4CC) Ashley would be at No. 4, Mirai would be at No. 8 and Gracie would be No. 10.

Assuming the SB rankings are the same at Worlds (and with Carolina and Yuna finishing higher)
4+ 8 = 3 spots
4+ 10 = 2 spots.

So I'd say it's too close to call -- tossup.

[suzukifan27]

So I'd say it's too close to call -- tossup.

Very good analysis!

[suzukifan27]

I I will guarantee right now that if the 2 U.S ladies both have even a reasonably good competition (which for Gold and Nagasu would be something comparable to how they skated at their last GP event, not something worse than that), the .

Pls don't use those ambiguous argument for exit. What's your definition of 'reasonably good competition'? What's your definitely of 'comparable to ...'? Scores? Landed jumps? Your analysis is full of holes!

[ImaginaryPogue]

I tend to agree with ptf - that top ten for the 2nd US lady is reasonable to expect if she skates at or near par. The best ladies competition of our time was the Vancouver Olympics and the USA results there would've been enough (4th for Nagasu, 7th for Flatt). I just don't see it as a lock

[pangtongfan]

I tend to agree with ptf - that top ten for the 2nd US lady is reasonable to expect if she skates at or near par. The best ladies competition of our time was the Vancouver Olympics and the USA results there would've been enough (4th for Nagasu, 7th for Flatt). I just don't see it as a lock

I agree it isnt a lock. However IMO it should happen. If it doesnt happen it will be a dissapointment, and almost certainly because one of the two U.S ladies failed to skate well. Considering Wagner, a revived Nagasu, and a usually tough Gold, would all be expected to skate well (and Mrs. Consistent Gao would be expected to deliver with even more certainty if she in an upset beats out Nagasu and Gold for the 2nd spot, but in her case her scoring potential would be a bigger worry than those other 2 ladies), it would both be a surprise and dissapointment this year IMO if a U.S lady has a poor competition, which again is the only way I see them not getting 3 spots back.

[dorispulaski]

OK, let's use the same method as for dance. "Reasonably well" means as well as they did at their best ISU competition so far:
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtslto.htm

1 196.80 Mao ASADA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
2 190.63 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
3 185.22 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
4 182.86 Elena RADIONOVA RUS ISU JGP Austria 2012 15.09.2012 JUNIOR
5 179.62 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
6 179.31 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
7 177.19 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
8 176.68 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
9 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
10 175.03 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
11 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
12 174.11 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
13 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
14 168.41 Hannah MILLER USA ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012 JUNIOR
15 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
16 167.40 Anna POGORILAYA RUS ISU Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012 JUNIOR
17 166.61 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
18 162.65 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 06.10.2012 JUNIOR

The US has only 2 spots-chances are the second spot will go to Zawadzki, Gold, Nagasu, or Gao.

So if we drop out Radionova & Pogorilaya (who can't compete because they are too young) and Miller and Wang, who will likely go to Junior Worlds, we have the following list and rankings:

1 196.80 Mao ASADA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
2 190.63 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
3 185.22 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
4 179.62 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
5 179.31 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
6 177.19 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
7 176.68 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
8 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
9 175.03 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
10 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
11 174.11 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
12 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
[/B]13 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012

So it is very possible that the US girls will earn 3 spots, if they skate their best. A 4th and a 9th will do it. or a 3rd and a 10th. or a 2nd and an 11th or a 1st and a 12th.

An additional issue is whether Zijun Li is healthy or not. There have been some questions (unanswered) about whether she is injured or not.

One should assume that Osmond will get exactly the same home crowd advantage in London, Ontario, as at Skate Canada-and the same possible excessive pressure that a home crowd can bring.

Once you get below Murakami, leaving out juniors, the next score is

20 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012 (eight points below Murakami)

Now we can assume that Yu Na Kim & Carolina Kostner will be at the top of this list along with Mao, but 4th is doable for Wagner again (with a good performance). The question is whether Gold/Nagasu/Gao/whomever can make 9th. Looking at the numbers, yes, it is definitely possible with a good performance.

[pangtongfan]

There is a good chance Wagner will medal as well. We all know if everyone skated cleanly the podium would be Kim, Kostner, and Asada in some order (well probably that exact order if they all are attempting their current content, but Asada imparticular might wise up and upgrade by then). However one of those three will likely have some problems, and a meltdown from one of Kostner or Asada wouldnt even be a surprise. By meltdown even Asada`s NHK performance would count as that, as no way she is medaling at Worlds with a free skate like that one. So Wagner if she returns to her whole of 2012 consistency until the GP final, which I expect and hope she will, has a good chance to capatilize on the almost inevitable problems of one of the 3 favorites and sneak in for atleast a bronze.

Suzuki is the only other one close to Wagner, but the GP final indicates Wagner will beat Suzuki all things fairly equal, even with a triple or so less, and Suzuki's poor National performance will mean even less support for her from her federation which will be firmly pushing for points for Asada. Wagner has the full backing of her own federation as their #1, barring something shocking at Nationals (and maybe even still inspite of it that happened, as long as she is still going to Worlds), which is her obvious edge over Suzuki, even if she arguably isnt any better a skater right now. That plus she is the more consistent of the two.

[drivingmissdaisy]

It is going to be close. I can easily see Yuna, Mao, Akiko, Ashley, Caro, Kiira and 3 Russians finishing ahead of our second lady. I expect Ashley to finish 3-4 and our second lady to finish 9-10, so the total might be somewhere between 12-14.

[jenaj]

We will have to see how Ashley does at Nationals. She has been very consistent since Nationals last year. If that continues, I agree she will finish at least fourth. Julia Lipnitskaya isn't old enough for Worlds, is she? But Yu Na has to be factored in. So if we assume the top five (in some order) are Yu Na, Mao, Akiko, Ashley, Carolina, I think the other US lady has a very good chance to finish in the top 9. Only Liza T., if she skates well, is likely to be a sure finisher above Gold or Nagasu. Kiira is inconsistent. Osmond is a first-timer at World's. Likewise, Zijun Li. (Likewise, Gracie Gold, but she does have those jumps) Adelina and Kanako have not been consistent and have scored below Gold and Nagasu's less-than-perfect efforts. My analysis, however, changes if Gao is the second US lady. I think she would finish no better than 10th.

[pangtongfan]

I like Gao but after her last couple events I think the USFSA will do everything possible to ensure Gold or Nagasu gets that 2nd spot even if Gao outskated them (eg Gold and Nagasu fell several times) at Nationals. The same way they will do everything possible to ensure Wagner wins and does not go to Worlds as anyone other than the undisputed U.S #1, anything else would be foolish at this point. The skaters that have the most scoring potential and are likely to bring the best results and hopes for Worlds are fairly obvious at this point. The only truly even battle going in will be the Gold and Nagasu one, where I think whoever skates cleaner that day will make it.

[suzukifan27]

OK, let's use the same method as for dance. "Reasonably well" means as well as they did at their best ISU competition so far:
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtslto.htm



The US has only 2 spots-chances are the second spot will go to Zawadzki, Gold, Nagasu, or Gao.

So if we drop out Radionova & Pogorilaya (who can't compete because they are too young) and Miller and Wang, who will likely go to Junior Worlds, we have the following list and rankings:

1 196.80 Mao ASADA JPN ISU Grand Prix Final 2012/13 08.12.2012
2 190.63 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
3 185.22 Akiko SUZUKI JPN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
4 179.62 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
5 179.31 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 17.11.2012
6 177.19 Kiira KORPI FIN ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
7 176.68 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
8 176.45 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012
9 175.03 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 10.11.2012
10 174.25 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
11 174.11 Zijun LI CHN ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 24.11.2012
12 168.96 Adelina SOTNIKOVA RUS ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 21.10.2012
[/B]13 168.04 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012

So it is very possible that the US girls will earn 3 spots, if they skate their best. A 4th and a 9th will do it. or a 3rd and a 10th. or a 2nd and an 11th or a 1st and a 12th.

An additional issue is whether Zijun Li is healthy or not. There have been some questions (unanswered) about whether she is injured or not.

One should assume that Osmond will get exactly the same home crowd advantage in London, Ontario, as at Skate Canada-and the same possible excessive pressure that a home crowd can bring.

Once you get below Murakami, leaving out juniors, the next score is

20 160.52 Elene GEDEVANISHVILI GEO ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 27.10.2012 (eight points below Murakami)

Now we can assume that Yu Na Kim & Carolina Kostner will be at the top of this list along with Mao, but 4th is doable for Wagner again (with a good performance). The question is whether Gold/Nagasu/Gao/whomever can make 9th. Looking at the numbers, yes, it is definitely possible with a good performance.

Your math is a complete mess. As you said, Yu Na and Carolina will be highly likely ahead of Wagner, which automatically means Wagner's ranking would be 4th and Mira's ranking would be 9th. Under this best case scenario, the total point for the top 2 Americans would be 12-13 excluding the young Russian. Again America is on the bubble. The chance is less than 50/50 to get the 3rd spot.

[suzukifan27]

There is a good chance Wagner will medal as well. We all know if everyone skated cleanly the podium would be Kim, Kostner, and Asada in some order (well probably that exact order if they all are attempting their current content, but Asada imparticular might wise up and upgrade by then). However one of those three will likely have some problems, and a meltdown from one of Kostner or Asada wouldnt even be a surprise. By meltdown even Asada`s NHK performance would count as that, as no way she is medaling at Worlds with a free skate like that one. So Wagner if she returns to her whole of 2012 consistency until the GP final, which I expect and hope she will, has a good chance to capatilize on the almost inevitable problems of one of the 3 favorites and sneak in for atleast a bronze.

Suzuki is the only other one close to Wagner, but the GP final indicates Wagner will beat Suzuki all things fairly equal, even with a triple or so less, and Suzuki's poor National performance will mean even less support for her from her federation which will be firmly pushing for points for Asada. Wagner has the full backing of her own federation as their #1, barring something shocking at Nationals (and maybe even still inspite of it that happened, as long as she is still going to Worlds), which is her obvious edge over Suzuki, even if she arguably isnt any better a skater right now. That plus she is the more consistent of the two.

What a mess, I mean your analysis. Wagner will not be able to medal. She's not going to beat Kostner, Kim, Asada based on their performances this season. Wagner's trump card is her so-called 'consistency'. It is already running out of steam. Suzuki will likely beat Wagner as well.

[Tonichelle]

Let's be constructive when we post and respond to one another.