Second lady to represent US in Sochi?

[Mrs. P]

What a mess, I mean your analysis. Wagner will not be able to medal. She's not going to beat Kostner, Kim, Asada based on their performances this season. Wagner's trump card is her so-called 'consistency'. It is already running out of steam. Suzuki will likely beat Wagner as well.

I'd say Ashley has a shot. Kim will be tough to beat with her content. Carolina will outrank her on PCS, as will Asada, but I think Ashley has a better shot of beat either of them. Ashley and Mao were virtually tied in the SP at GPF. The errors in the FS cost her about 12 points (BV in 3S, 2A, plus a level in steps as she clearly had a tough time after that horrid 2A fall and fall deductions). She would have been striking distance of Mao. And she still has points left on the table with her spin levels -- she's capable of level 4s.

So far Wagner is 2-0 to Suzuki, so take that for what it's worth.

[pangtongfan]

I'd say Ashley has a shot. Kim will be tough to beat with her content. Carolina will outrank her on PCS, as will Asada, but I think Ashley has a better shot of beat either of them. Ashley and Mao were virtually tied in the SP at GPF. The errors in the FS cost her about 12 points (BV in 3S, 2A, plus a level in steps as she clearly had a tough time after that horrid 2A fall and fall deductions). She would have been striking distance of Mao. And she still has points left on the table with her spin levels -- she's capable of level 4s.

So far Wagner is 2-0 to Suzuki, so take that for what it's worth.

Good analysis. I agree Wagner has no shot to beat Kim, barring a total disaester from Kim, not just a couple errors. However both Kostner and Asada are beatable if they made a couple mistakes and Wagner skates relatively clean, which is perfectly plausible. Suzuki could beat Wagner of course (most likely requiring Wagner to make some mistakes, especialy as Suzuki has never done 2 clean programs), but there is no reason whatever to think she has the edge on Wagner now, if anyone is going down it is her after coming 4th at her own Nationals for that matter.

[Mrs. P]

Good analysis. I agree Wagner has no shot to beat Kim, barring a total disaester from Kim, not just a couple errors. However both Kostner and Asada are beatable if they made a couple mistakes and Wagner skates relatively clean, which is perfectly plausible. Suzuki could beat Wagner of course (most likely requiring Wagner to make some mistakes, especialy as Suzuki has never done 2 clean programs), but there is no reason whatever to think she has the edge on Wagner now, if anyone is going down it is her after coming 4th at her own Nationals for that matter.

Also another thing to consider is that Wagner tends to add more transitions as the season goes on. That will also boost her PCS score.

And one cannot underestimate pure grit. She won TEB with a head cold and pulled out a beautiful 3F after that terrible 2A fall at GPF, which helped her secure the silver medal. The 3S error in GPF was purely a matter of rushed timing.

[drivingmissdaisy]

I'd say Ashley has a shot. Kim will be tough to beat with her content. Carolina will outrank her on PCS, as will Asada, but I think Ashley has a better shot of beat either of them.

Caro and Mao can be error-prone, more so than Ashley. Particularly if Caro attempts content to try to match Yuna, I could see Kostner having a complete meltdown. I think it's likely Ashley will be off the podium, very possible she could beat one of those two, and unlikely she would beat both. Really my worry is our second skater because in the last 5 years Wagner (2008), Czisny (2009 & 2012), Flatt (2010 & 2011), or Nagasu (2010) have all finished 7th or worse at Worlds which doesn't get the job done unless another skater does well. It looks like we will need someone to finish 9th and Mirai or Gracie would have to skate really well to achieve that.

[Krislite]

I'm a little skeptical of this sudden confidence in Wagner. Why assume she'll maintain this level throughout this season and the next? She and her peers have shown no sign of such long-term consistency--neither Nagasu, Czisny or even Flatt. I think it's rather premature to declare her the 2013 and 2014 US National Champ.

[Mrs. P]

I'm a little skeptical of this sudden confidence in Wagner. Why assume she'll maintain this level throughout this season and the next? She and her peers have shown no sign of such long-term consistency--neither Nagasu, Czisny or even Flatt. I think it's rather premature to declare her the 2013 and 2014 US National Champ.

Nothing's guaranteed, of course. But Ashley earned my confidence with each and every competition from when she won Nationals. She won 4CC, got the highest Worlds placement since Kimmie Meissner in 2007, won Japan open, won both her GPs and toughed it out at the GPF to get the silver medal.

Let me put it another way -- Since U.S. Nationals, she has only been off the podium once -- at Worlds. She's been OTP 7/8 or 87.5 percent. That is probably the best hit percentage out of all the U.S. Ladies. And unlike the other girls, she thrives on competition and just has pure grit.

No, I'm not going to precrown her as 2014 U.S. Champion, but she certainly has taken her destiny in her own hands.

The other thing that generated confidence in me is the smart development strategy by her team. It's clear they are being strategic RE: putting in 3-3/2A-3T and they have focused on developing clean programs and getting the levels before adding the stuff. This is certainly an improvement over the let's see if it sticks strategy Alissa was doing regarding the 3-3or the stupid "skate while injured" strategy Rachael's team was OK with. And unlike Mirai in the past, Ashley is not scared of being first.

[skateluvr]

I like Gao but after her last couple events I think the USFSA will do everything possible to ensure Gold or Nagasu gets that 2nd spot even if Gao outskated them (eg Gold and Nagasu fell several times) at Nationals. The same way they will do everything possible to ensure Wagner wins and does not go to Worlds as anyone other than the undisputed U.S #1, anything else would be foolish at this point. The skaters that have the most scoring potential and are likely to bring the best results and hopes for Worlds are fairly obvious at this point. The only truly even battle going in will be the Gold and Nagasu one, where I think whoever skates cleaner that day will make it.

I agree what about Agnes tho?

[Nadia01]

I think Korea has a better chance of getting 3 spots than the US ladies this year since it's sending only Yuna to the Worlds, and she can probably place top 2...definitely top 3, given her technical content, unless she bombs for some reason. And I find the situation extremely ironic and regrettable as Korea doesn't really have any decent sr-level skaters...except Yuna.

I think Ashley will do pretty well, but the problem I see is how well the lady #2 is going to do.

[jjane45]

An additional issue is whether Zijun Li is healthy or not. There have been some questions (unanswered) about whether she is injured or not.

LI Zijun is in excellent shape, winning Chinese Nationals last month with 2 strong programs. Do you happen to mean ZHANG Kexin? She is not competing this season.

[b-man]

Caro and Mao can be error-prone, more so than Ashley. Particularly if Caro attempts content to try to match Yuna, I could see Kostner having a complete meltdown. I think it's likely Ashley will be off the podium, very possible she could beat one of those two, and unlikely she would beat both. Really my worry is our second skater because in the last 5 years Wagner (2008), Czisny (2009 & 2012), Flatt (2010 & 2011), or Nagasu (2010) have all finished 7th or worse at Worlds which doesn't get the job done unless another skater does well. It looks like we will need someone to finish 9th and Mirai or Gracie would have to skate really well to achieve that.

As far as the 2nd US skater, Mirai is 8th on the ISU's season's best list, and Gracie 10th. You would need to add in Kim and Kostner who are not yet on the list, and remove Radionova who is 4th on the list but not age eligible. That would move Mirai to 9th and Gracie to 11th. So Mirai or Gracie would need to skate well as you said for and 8th or 9th placement, but it is well within their capability.

[pangtongfan]

I agree what about Agnes tho?

She is so inconsistent I hadnt considered, but I would be very scared sending her to Worlds this year with Olympic spots on the line. You never know which Agnes is going to show up, especialy in the long program. I agree she is the last of the outside contenders for a spot to Worlds though.

[Jammers]

Any way you look at it i don't see the US Ladies getting 3 spots for Sochi. Mirai has always been unreliable when it counts and Agnes and Gracie are unproven. Gracie hasn't skated long enough as a Senior to be called a headcase so perhaps she will get it together at Nats and if she does she could very well finish in the top ten.

[Layfan]

I thought Caro was taking the year off

[silverlake22]

I don't expect Ashley to beat Yuna, but after Miki beat Yuna who didn't have a meltdown but made a few mistakes (and even Miki made a slight mistake and attempted very conservative content), I'm not convinced Yuna will definitely be on the podium, or she could even be 3rd and then Ashley say 2nd. I'm not saying it's likely, I don't expect it to happen, but you have to wonder if Yuna will really be the same after all that time off. The way I see it, if she nails the SP, then she's pretty much a lock for a podium spot, but if she has errors in the SP like she did in 2011, her scoring potential/error margin over the others is much less in the FS so I could see a Yuna with a few mistakes scoring in the high 120s for her FS, then only scoring mid-60s for the SP due to a mistake or two, meaning the door would be open for any of Ashley, Mao, Carolina, and maybe even Akiko to take advantage and beat Yuna with a clean/near clean FS scoring 130ish. We all know 130ish is doable for them based on what they've put up internationally so far this season, and Yuna even at NRW with the hugely inflated marks only scored 132 for the FS, and just scored 64 for her SP at her own Nationals soo idk. I'm not convinced the queen is unbeatable, especially now that she can't do 3 2as in her FS so her content is as ambitious as it once was. Also, Mao, Carolina, and Ashley breaking 70 for the SP isn't impossible either, especially if Ashley were to do 3f-3t and Mao were to do a 3a, she could even afford a < on it as long as the GOE stays pretty neutral, and mid-60s for a flawed Yuna short is pretty standard. So 130+ FS might not even be necessary to beat Yuna. Of course, if Yuna is clean or clean in the SP and close to clean in the FS, she wins, hands down, but idk how easy that's going to be after all this time off.

[MK's Winter]

Something tells me not to count Mirai out. Despite her struggles in the past, her scores are in the top 10. Mirai has a very natural artistry about her and can achieve the Pcs points. If she brought back her 3Lutz/3T she is very capable of becoming the number 1 US lady again.