Wagner is not beating Kim at Worlds. Even if Kim makes mistakes and Wagner is perfect it still wont happen. Mao and Kostner are the only two with an outside shot to beat Kim at Worlds, and that definitely requires mistakes from Kim and probably perfect skates by either one (which is unlikely but not impossible). Kim isnt a mortal lock to win Worlds but I and most people will be very surprised if she doesnt, and she is pretty much a lock for the podium. Ando going into 2011 was in a much stronger position to potentially beat Kim than anyone is right now, as nobody has established themselves much in her absence, or is doing the content even needed. Plus based on her first outing it is safe to say even if it isnt Vancouver vintage Kim (and it probably wont be) it will likely be a better one than the one that showed up at the 2011 Worlds which was terrible, and still so very nearly and still would have won Worlds with several other big mistakes and no triple-triple and a big mistake in the short if she didnt just single a silly double toe loop.I don't expect Ashley to beat Yuna, but after Miki beat Yuna who didn't have a meltdown but made a few mistakes (and even Miki made a slight mistake and attempted very conservative content), I'm not convinced Yuna will definitely be on the podium, or she could even be 3rd and then Ashley say 2nd. I'm not saying it's likely, I don't expect it to happen, but you have to wonder if Yuna will really be the same after all that time off. The way I see it, if she nails the SP, then she's pretty much a lock for a podium spot, but if she has errors in the SP like she did in 2011, her scoring potential/error margin over the others is much less in the FS so I could see a Yuna with a few mistakes scoring in the high 120s for her FS, then only scoring mid-60s for the SP due to a mistake or two, meaning the door would be open for any of Ashley, Mao, Carolina, and maybe even Akiko to take advantage and beat Yuna with a clean/near clean FS scoring 130ish. We all know 130ish is doable for them based on what they've put up internationally so far this season, and Yuna even at NRW with the hugely inflated marks only scored 132 for the FS, and just scored 64 for her SP at her own Nationals soo idk. I'm not convinced the queen is unbeatable, especially now that she can't do 3 2as in her FS so her content is as ambitious as it once was. Also, Mao, Carolina, and Ashley breaking 70 for the SP isn't impossible either, especially if Ashley were to do 3f-3t and Mao were to do a 3a, she could even afford a < on it as long as the GOE stays pretty neutral, and mid-60s for a flawed Yuna short is pretty standard. So 130+ FS might not even be necessary to beat Yuna. Of course, if Yuna is clean or clean in the SP and close to clean in the FS, she wins, hands down, but idk how easy that's going to be after all this time off.
Last edited by pangtongfan; 01-05-2013 at 07:06 PM.