Second lady to represent US in Sochi?

[pangtongfan]

I don't expect Ashley to beat Yuna, but after Miki beat Yuna who didn't have a meltdown but made a few mistakes (and even Miki made a slight mistake and attempted very conservative content), I'm not convinced Yuna will definitely be on the podium, or she could even be 3rd and then Ashley say 2nd. I'm not saying it's likely, I don't expect it to happen, but you have to wonder if Yuna will really be the same after all that time off. The way I see it, if she nails the SP, then she's pretty much a lock for a podium spot, but if she has errors in the SP like she did in 2011, her scoring potential/error margin over the others is much less in the FS so I could see a Yuna with a few mistakes scoring in the high 120s for her FS, then only scoring mid-60s for the SP due to a mistake or two, meaning the door would be open for any of Ashley, Mao, Carolina, and maybe even Akiko to take advantage and beat Yuna with a clean/near clean FS scoring 130ish. We all know 130ish is doable for them based on what they've put up internationally so far this season, and Yuna even at NRW with the hugely inflated marks only scored 132 for the FS, and just scored 64 for her SP at her own Nationals soo idk. I'm not convinced the queen is unbeatable, especially now that she can't do 3 2as in her FS so her content is as ambitious as it once was. Also, Mao, Carolina, and Ashley breaking 70 for the SP isn't impossible either, especially if Ashley were to do 3f-3t and Mao were to do a 3a, she could even afford a < on it as long as the GOE stays pretty neutral, and mid-60s for a flawed Yuna short is pretty standard. So 130+ FS might not even be necessary to beat Yuna. Of course, if Yuna is clean or clean in the SP and close to clean in the FS, she wins, hands down, but idk how easy that's going to be after all this time off.

Wagner is not beating Kim at Worlds. Even if Kim makes mistakes and Wagner is perfect it still wont happen. Mao and Kostner are the only two with an outside shot to beat Kim at Worlds, and that definitely requires mistakes from Kim and probably perfect skates by either one (which is unlikely but not impossible). Kim isnt a mortal lock to win Worlds but I and most people will be very surprised if she doesnt, and she is pretty much a lock for the podium. Ando going into 2011 was in a much stronger position to potentially beat Kim than anyone is right now, as nobody has established themselves much in her absence, or is doing the content even needed. Plus based on her first outing it is safe to say even if it isnt Vancouver vintage Kim (and it probably wont be) it will likely be a better one than the one that showed up at the 2011 Worlds which was terrible, and still so very nearly and still would have won Worlds with several other big mistakes and no triple-triple and a big mistake in the short if she didnt just single a silly double toe loop.

[Nadia01]

I don't expect Ashley to beat Yuna, but after Miki beat Yuna who didn't have a meltdown but made a few mistakes (and even Miki made a slight mistake and attempted very conservative content), I'm not convinced Yuna will definitely be on the podium, or she could even be 3rd and then Ashley say 2nd. I'm not saying it's likely, I don't expect it to happen, but you have to wonder if Yuna will really be the same after all that time off. The way I see it, if she nails the SP, then she's pretty much a lock for a podium spot, but if she has errors in the SP like she did in 2011, her scoring potential/error margin over the others is much less in the FS so I could see a Yuna with a few mistakes scoring in the high 120s for her FS, then only scoring mid-60s for the SP due to a mistake or two, meaning the door would be open for any of Ashley, Mao, Carolina, and maybe even Akiko to take advantage and beat Yuna with a clean/near clean FS scoring 130ish. We all know 130ish is doable for them based on what they've put up internationally so far this season, and Yuna even at NRW with the hugely inflated marks only scored 132 for the FS, and just scored 64 for her SP at her own Nationals soo idk. I'm not convinced the queen is unbeatable, especially now that she can't do 3 2as in her FS so her content is as ambitious as it once was. Also, Mao, Carolina, and Ashley breaking 70 for the SP isn't impossible either, especially if Ashley were to do 3f-3t and Mao were to do a 3a, she could even afford a < on it as long as the GOE stays pretty neutral, and mid-60s for a flawed Yuna short is pretty standard. So 130+ FS might not even be necessary to beat Yuna. Of course, if Yuna is clean or clean in the SP and close to clean in the FS, she wins, hands down, but idk how easy that's going to be after all this time off.

True, but 2011 WC was Yuna's 1st comp of the season, while Miki had lots of comps under her belt that season. Can Ashley or Akiko just show up at the worlds as their 1st comp of the season and take the silver? I don't think so.

Yuna's being a lot more careful this season. She didn't have any definite competitive goals in 2011, and she was still looking for her goal. Right now, Yuna's main goal is to get any many spots for Team Korea as possible. You're looking at two very different mindsets working for Yuna in 2011 and Yuna right now.

Also yes, everyone can score 70+ in short if they can pull out big jumps like 3F/3T, 3Lz/3T, 3A, etc. and go clean. The question is how likely is it? Basically what you're saying is so long as other ladies go clean and Yuna makes multiple errors (free and short), they can beat her. Well, of course. When Yuna goes clean, she can beat others too.

[FlattFan]

I think only one other girl who can score 70+ in the sp with the current layout, and that's Caro. 3T-3T, 3Loop, 2A would be enough. Her PCS should rise enough by March to push her over 70.

Ashley, even with 3x3, will not crack 70.

Mao doesn't have 3x3, won't go for 3A in the SP, will not crack 70.

Akiko doesn't have the necessary PCS to crack 70.

Kiira? I can see her scoring close to 70 if clean, but won't crack 70.

If Yuna makes the kind of mistakes she did yesterday, she would be out of the medal, especially if the other girls are clean. If she falls on the 3Lutz-3Toe, gold is also gone. Caro will probably adjust her LP to match Yuna. If she leads in the SP, she wouldn't risk anything in the LP since Yuna is unlikely to be clean in the LP.

[Krislite]

I think only one other girl who can score 70+ in the sp with the current layout, and that's Caro. 3T-3T, 3Loop, 2A would be enough. Her PCS should rise enough by March to push her over 70.

Ashley, even with 3x3, will not crack 70.

Mao doesn't have 3x3, won't go for 3A in the SP, will not crack 70.

Akiko doesn't have the necessary PCS to crack 70.

Kiira? I can see her scoring close to 70 if clean, but won't crack 70.

If Yuna makes the kind of mistakes she did yesterday, she would be out of the medal, especially if the other girls are clean. If she falls on the 3Lutz-3Toe, gold is also gone. Caro will probably adjust her LP to match Yuna. If she leads in the SP, she wouldn't risk anything in the LP since Yuna is unlikely to be clean in the LP.

Speaking of a clean LP, Yuna just did one a few minutes ago and scored 145 like Caro did at her own nationals. The freak fall/pop yesterday was just that. It's unlikely to happen again at Worlds.

If Caro and Yuna both skate a clean LP like they did at their own nationals, I'm pretty sure Yuna would edge her out by several points in the long program.

If Yuna actually does at Worlds what she did this weekend, she's going to be on the podium unless the the top 3 girls ALL have the skate of their life at the same time. (How likely do you think is that?)

[Skater Boy]

I think Russia will do okay. Liza T's PCS aren't the best but her TES should keep her close to the top 5 and even though Adelina is a headcase, even when she tanks she scores well. Both ladies have the hardest content (3-3s in the SP and LP and a 2a-3T in the LP as well) and are capable of scoring well enough to earn three spots. Alena has been MIA all year long so I'm not expecting much from her (she is going, right?).

The Russian's aren't dominating the way everyone assumed they would two years ago but I think they have a decent shot at getting three spots this year as well.


As for the OP's topic, I hope Ashley and Skater X are able to earn three spots this year. I'd love to see Ashley stay on top as the US champ and lead the team to Sochi. As for the other two spots, it's wide open right now.

A lot of people are putting their faith in Gracie based on her potential but until she's far from a lock for Sochi or even worlds this year. She has not proved herself to be a strong competitor yet. She's had one good SP and two mediocre LPs this season. I'm not convinced she's the best bet. I still don't see the hype about her...

If Mirai continues on the path she's on now and is able to add some better programs and consistency to her skating, she'd be a good candidate...If Christina settles into her style and really learns to sell her programs to the judges, she'd in the mix. If Agnes can find some consistency...if Alissa makes a full recovery and gets back to where she was in 2011...and then there are the newbies: Angela has all 5 triples including 3-3s and a lovely style, but she's unknown outside of the junior circuit...then there's Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser, Samantha Cesario...any one of these girls could have a breakout year and position themselves to get on that team.

It's way too early to guess and waaay too many thing that could factor in.

But if Liza is just close to top 5 say six or seventh then the other Russian lady would have to be sixth or seventh as well to even have a shot at 3 ladies. Russia would have to hope they beat Osmond, one of the Japanese ladies and one or two of the Americans to have a hsot

[FlattFan]

Speaking of a clean LP, Yuna just did one a few minutes ago and scored 145 like Caro did at her own nationals. The freak fall/pop yesterday was just that. It's unlikely to happen again at Worlds.

If Caro and Yuna both skate a clean LP like they did at their own nationals, I'm pretty sure Yuna would edge her out by several points in the long program.

If Yuna actually does at Worlds what she did this weekend, she's going to be on the podium unless the the top 3 girls ALL have the skate of their life at the same time. (How likely do you think is that?)

She was awesome! And I can't believe the odd of both girls clean in the LP.
She would be on the podium, possibly gold for this LP. And yes, she would score a few points higher than kostner. Her TR is stronger than kostner and she has stronger lutz, a big element.

I think world this year has the potential to be the best world in history. All girls are very strong in PC's so as long as they are clean, even the bronze medalist is worthy of the title. How often do you see something like that?

[sky_fly20]

there will be three ladies from the US n Sochi, so why the assumption of just two ???

I can see Ashey, Gracie and Mirai going to Sochi
with Gao and Miller as outside shots from the three

[jaylee]

there will be three ladies from the US n Sochi, so why the assumption of just two ???

I can see Ashey, Gracie and Mirai going to Sochi
with Gao and Miller as outside shots from the three

Well, first, the US had to earn three spots in Sochi. That's TBD.

[samson]

This remains to be seen, but I think that IF Ashley starts doing a triple/triple she could definitely score 70. She hit 66 already this season without it.

[Mrs. P]

Well, might as well break it down.

Here's Ashley's SP BV

3F-2T: 6.60
LSp4: 2.70
CCoSp4: 3.50
2A: 3.63
3Lo: 5.61
StSq4: 3.90
FSSp4: 3.00
Total 28.94

As you can see, she's maxed out as far as levels. The only thing she could do is add a 3-3. A 3F-3T is worth 9.40 points, which would add 2.8 points. So if GOE and PCS were the same (i.e. she does the program with the same performance), her score would go up to 69.24. Of course this assumes she can do the 3F-3T with the same execution as the 3F-2T. She scored +1.30 GOE with that combo.

Let's say she botches the 3F-3T and the the 3T is UR. The BV of the combo goes down to 8.2 points. Let's say that she has a major step out -1.00 GOE. Now your'e down to 7.2 points. With just the 3F-2T at it's current quality she got 7.9. So it doesn't take a brain surgeon to see why she opted to not put in the 3-3 in yet if it's not ready.

For further reference, let's note the 3F-3T she did at 4CC last year. She scored +0.20 there, so 9.40 overall. So if she did the same at GPF (with everything else staying the same) -- her score would be 67.94.

I think she has a shot at 70, but there will need to be a lot of stars aligning ---basically a perfect program with all level 4s (including step) and not just a OK 3-3 but a great one with high GOE (majority +2).