Wagner is not beating Kim at Worlds. Even if Kim makes mistakes and Wagner is perfect it still wont happen. Mao and Kostner are the only two with an outside shot to beat Kim at Worlds, and that definitely requires mistakes from Kim and probably perfect skates by either one (which is unlikely but not impossible). Kim isnt a mortal lock to win Worlds but I and most people will be very surprised if she doesnt, and she is pretty much a lock for the podium. Ando going into 2011 was in a much stronger position to potentially beat Kim than anyone is right now, as nobody has established themselves much in her absence, or is doing the content even needed. Plus based on her first outing it is safe to say even if it isnt Vancouver vintage Kim (and it probably wont be) it will likely be a better one than the one that showed up at the 2011 Worlds which was terrible, and still so very nearly and still would have won Worlds with several other big mistakes and no triple-triple and a big mistake in the short if she didnt just single a silly double toe loop.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Last edited by pangtongfan; 01-05-2013 at 08:06 PM.
True, but 2011 WC was Yuna's 1st comp of the season, while Miki had lots of comps under her belt that season. Can Ashley or Akiko just show up at the worlds as their 1st comp of the season and take the silver? I don't think so.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Yuna's being a lot more careful this season. She didn't have any definite competitive goals in 2011, and she was still looking for her goal. Right now, Yuna's main goal is to get any many spots for Team Korea as possible. You're looking at two very different mindsets working for Yuna in 2011 and Yuna right now.
Also yes, everyone can score 70+ in short if they can pull out big jumps like 3F/3T, 3Lz/3T, 3A, etc. and go clean. The question is how likely is it? Basically what you're saying is so long as other ladies go clean and Yuna makes multiple errors (free and short), they can beat her. Well, of course. When Yuna goes clean, she can beat others too.
I think only one other girl who can score 70+ in the sp with the current layout, and that's Caro. 3T-3T, 3Loop, 2A would be enough. Her PCS should rise enough by March to push her over 70.
Ashley, even with 3x3, will not crack 70.
Mao doesn't have 3x3, won't go for 3A in the SP, will not crack 70.
Akiko doesn't have the necessary PCS to crack 70.
Kiira? I can see her scoring close to 70 if clean, but won't crack 70.
If Yuna makes the kind of mistakes she did yesterday, she would be out of the medal, especially if the other girls are clean. If she falls on the 3Lutz-3Toe, gold is also gone. Caro will probably adjust her LP to match Yuna. If she leads in the SP, she wouldn't risk anything in the LP since Yuna is unlikely to be clean in the LP.
Six Point Zero
Speaking of a clean LP, Yuna just did one a few minutes ago and scored 145 like Caro did at her own nationals. The freak fall/pop yesterday was just that. It's unlikely to happen again at Worlds.
Originally Posted by FlattFan
If Caro and Yuna both skate a clean LP like they did at their own nationals, I'm pretty sure Yuna would edge her out by several points in the long program.
If Yuna actually does at Worlds what she did this weekend, she's going to be on the podium unless the the top 3 girls ALL have the skate of their life at the same time. (How likely do you think is that?)
Last edited by Krislite; 01-06-2013 at 04:06 AM.
But if Liza is just close to top 5 say six or seventh then the other Russian lady would have to be sixth or seventh as well to even have a shot at 3 ladies. Russia would have to hope they beat Osmond, one of the Japanese ladies and one or two of the Americans to have a hsot
Originally Posted by kwanatic
She was awesome! And I can't believe the odd of both girls clean in the LP.
Originally Posted by Krislite
She would be on the podium, possibly gold for this LP. And yes, she would score a few points higher than kostner. Her TR is stronger than kostner and she has stronger lutz, a big element.
I think world this year has the potential to be the best world in history. All girls are very strong in PC's so as long as they are clean, even the bronze medalist is worthy of the title. How often do you see something like that?
there will be three ladies from the US n Sochi, so why the assumption of just two ???
I can see Ashey, Gracie and Mirai going to Sochi
with Gao and Miller as outside shots from the three
Well, first, the US had to earn three spots in Sochi. That's TBD.
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
This remains to be seen, but I think that IF Ashley starts doing a triple/triple she could definitely score 70. She hit 66 already this season without it.
Well, might as well break it down.
Here's Ashley's SP BV
As you can see, she's maxed out as far as levels. The only thing she could do is add a 3-3. A 3F-3T is worth 9.40 points, which would add 2.8 points. So if GOE and PCS were the same (i.e. she does the program with the same performance), her score would go up to 69.24. Of course this assumes she can do the 3F-3T with the same execution as the 3F-2T. She scored +1.30 GOE with that combo.
Let's say she botches the 3F-3T and the the 3T is UR. The BV of the combo goes down to 8.2 points. Let's say that she has a major step out -1.00 GOE. Now your'e down to 7.2 points. With just the 3F-2T at it's current quality she got 7.9. So it doesn't take a brain surgeon to see why she opted to not put in the 3-3 in yet if it's not ready.
For further reference, let's note the 3F-3T she did at 4CC last year. She scored +0.20 there, so 9.40 overall. So if she did the same at GPF (with everything else staying the same) -- her score would be 67.94.
I think she has a shot at 70, but there will need to be a lot of stars aligning ---basically a perfect program with all level 4s (including step) and not just a OK 3-3 but a great one with high GOE (majority +2).
Last edited by Mrs. P; 01-06-2013 at 02:36 PM.