Czisny has no 3/3 or even a 2a+3t. Many of the ladies (Yu-Na, Russians, Gold, Osmond, etc.) do have 3/3s. That is the technical bar to which I referred.
I don't think she has a chance. Her performances at Nats and Worlds last year were subpar and now she has an injury to get past. The bar certainly has been raised from even when she was at her prime.
People are questioning and were chastising me for thinking Nagasu would come as high as 8th at Worlds if she skates well and what makes Czisny any better than Nagasu at this point. She isnt a better jumper, it is debateable if she any better a spinner, she isnt anymore beautiful on the ice, she is much slower, and she is even more out of favor and out of any momentum or backing than Nagasu at this moment, especialy after a strong GP comeback season by Mirai. Her only advantage would be if she has better programs but does anyone really know that at this point. You sound as if you are thinking her scoring potential would be on par with Wagner and Suzuki right now, and I would be flabergasted with amazement if that were the case.
You can feel however you choose to about said skater but Wagner in 3 or 4 different competitions has scored higher than Czisny at her peak ever did now, and is currently the U.S number 1 so unless she imploded she would beat Czisny no matter what Czisny did, 3-3 or no 3-3. Suzuki would outscore Czisny in jumps and PCS easily, she tried 7 triples vs the 5 Czisny usually tries, does a 3-3 in the short, gets much more GOE on her jumps, skates much faster. Elizaveta if she held her form from her recent outings would always come out ahead just based on the huge disparity in TES between the two, even Czisny`s spins would not come close to making up the huge gap in jumping ability, and Elizveta`s PCS are improving vastly, while I am not sure why anyone would assume Czisny would get huge PCS at this point in time.
2011 Worlds was a poor event, Miki Ando who is nothing but jumps won with no triple-triple try in either programs, one big mistake, only 5 triples, no triple flip. Ones placement would go down with comparable performances placed today vs that year, not up.
I wish Alissa the very best of luck at Nationals. No matter how she does I will be cheering her on
There can only be three medallists and two go to world\s. I understand how she doesn\t want to go out with a 22nd place at worlds but i do wonder if she has had enoug time to recuperate and train. As well, Wagner has clearly passed her and I think she may find it hard to stay ahead of Gold, Nagasu, Gao and maybe even Zhang. She has the potential to win a medal but with the lack of competition/training I am not sure if it isreasonable or likely for her to make the team to worlds. She could fluke out though but even on a good day how she does is like the flip of a coin.
Maybe Czisny's goal for this year is not to make the team, but gain some confidence back with a solid performance. How is her planned content known or is it just being assumed that it will be what it has been in the past. Haven't there been medalist this season with less than 5 clean triples?
Last edited by Icey; 01-07-2013 at 08:01 AM.
I REALLY hope she skates a beautiful, emotionally satisfying program FOR HERSELF. Get a standing ovation and the response she is looking for and ....
then she can retire from eligible competition and joint SOI to eventually disappear into skating oblivion.
Last edited by drivingmissdaisy; 01-07-2013 at 11:44 AM.
Czisny's better performances:
gold-medal SA 2011 FS: 3z+3t<<, 3fe<<-fo↓, 3lo, 3z<, 2s, 3lo+2t, 2a+2t+2lo
Worlds 2011 5th place FS: 3z↓, 3f+2t, 3t+2t+2lo, 3lo, 3z+2t, 2a, 3t
gold medal GPF 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3s, 3lo, 3z, 2a-fo, 3t
gold medal SC 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3f, 3lo, 3t, 2a, 3t↓
bronze medal TEB 2010 FS: 3z+2t, 3f+2t, 3t, 3lo-hd, 3f↓, 2a<fo, 1t
Only one near-clean FS in the bunch (GPF gold medal), and she finished 3rd in the FS of that event.
It's interesting to look at the layout of her FS over the 2010-2011 season. It seems she had a different jump layout for each performance, and in all she landed a 3-jump combination only once.
ETA: Yes, Alissa did beat Kostner at GPF 2010. But Kostner has rarely been in top form in the early season. Carolina did come back to win bronze at Worlds 2011, beating Alissa.
Last edited by chuckm; 01-07-2013 at 01:36 PM.
Pangtongfan - Alissa has attempted 6 triples in her FP for years now. Planned 7 last year until the 3 salchow wasn't panning out.
Why is the salchow such an obstacle for her?