- Joined
- Jun 16, 2010
I think if one of Dai or Hanyu wins Worlds they will the Japanese number 1 backing for next year. If neither does then it is still up in the air.
My odds to win Worlds at this point would be:
Takahashi- 35%
Hanyu- 30%
Chan- 25%
Fernandez-5% (his odds to medal I think are quite decent, but not to win)
All others combined- 5%
Some might disagree with these, but what I think we can all agree on is the first 3 are quite close, and Fernandez is the only other possible but a real long shot to actually WIN this year. I really really hope it is Takahashi his year though. This will shock people but I would much rather Chan win than Hanyu. The hype around Hanyu lately is nauseating me, and his inflated PCS and even sometimes exagerrated GOEs are becoming an evcen bigger joke than Chans being guaranteed to win every event with 6 falls and all others clean for 2-3 years was. Now that Chans scores have come down to earth somewhat (PCS still overgenerous for some of his sloppier, more error prone skates, but you cant expect the judges to be perfect when it comes to their pets) and he has managed to shut up his loudmouth he used to bring to press conferences, and keep it in his head mostly at last, he isnt all that bad. On another note that other Canadian loudmouth Scott Moir has also kept his trap shut this year, even at the GP final where IMO he would have had legitimate reason to complain unlike many times he did in the past with no legitimate reason to, so maybe the CSA has clammed Chan and Moir up, and if they did bravo to them for that.
He says right after Sochi, but I could see him changing his mind and deciding to go to the 2014 Worlds as well. I kind of expected 2014 to be his last season, as he's been around for awhile and has been injured. I'll miss him though!
Kozuka is one of those skaters who is just better seen live than on TV...something about the ease, edging and flow of his skating...The first time I ever saw him live was at Skate America this year, and I really get what the hype is about now..
Kozuka is one of those skaters who is just better seen live than on TV...something about the ease, edging and flow of his skating...The first time I ever saw him live was at Skate America this year, and I really get what the hype is about now..
We all knew this was coming unfortunately. Once he made comments about almost retiring a couple of years ago I knew. It's feels like it did for me when Buttle and Lambiel left.
Check your fact! When did Chan ever win with 6 falls, or even 5 falls?! The worst time he won a competition was at 2010 SC with 3 falls in SP and one fall in LP (by the way, 3 + 1 = 4). Even in that competition, he lost SP and fell into fourth place. He would have won the overall competition at 2010 COR without violating the zayak rule. But even in that competition, he has had one fall in SP and 3 falls in LP. Again, it was only four falls in total.
Considering all his mistakes at COR he had about 7 falls worth of mistakes and still very nearly beat a clean Verner who was one of the top skaters in the World at the time. Had he just had those 4 falls and not the other problems he would have won easily. At Skate Canada he won easily with 4 as you mentioned. Other events his margin of victories speak for themselves. So I would estimate he had 6 falls worth of errors to be safe to win, and needed a 7th to be in danger of losing if one of the other top skaters skated perfectly for about 2 years. Dont agree with me, I dont care, in hindsight alot of people came around to see I was right on that all along like I tend to be right on pretty much everything (the 6 or 7 fall rule isnt that way anymore, thank goodness, but it was reality for the longest time, and will be a large part of his legacy, of the negative sort, after he is gone).
I agree. It fills me with a sense of loss. I knew from the first time I saw Daisuke that he would end up on my Forever List. There are a lot of good skaters but very few who do that to me.
Why is Patrick relevant to a thread about Dai's retirement announcement?
What is "fall worth of mistakes"? A fall has 1 point deduction. Is a mistake worth of one point deduction called a fall worth mistake? I could find many many one point worth of mistakes, or even a couple of points more to go with the "falls", in many many skaters, including Takahashi. Are they having double, triple... amount of their actual falls too?!
If you want your idea to be legitimate, double standard should go away.
Although I am very sad that Daisuke will be retiring after Sochi, on the bright side, as someone who thought he would retire after Vancouver or after 2011 Worlds at the latest, I am still very happy that he has decided to skate for at least one more Olympic cycle after winning his Olympic medal and World title in 2010. Remaining at the top of the sport for so many years is difficult, but the fact that Daisuke was able to do so despite suffering a potentially career-ending injury in 2008 is just astounding. I would like him to win a second World title and the Olympic gold with the time he has left, but whatever happens, his place among the greats is already ensured with programs like La Strada, Cyber Swan, In the Garden of Souls, Blues for Klook, Eye, etc. The second world title and OGM will just be the cherries on top of the icing.
I know that you were asked to explain the theory of falls, but this is really a thread about Dai's impending retirement
Still, it is good to know that when you say x falls, you are figuring x*3.25 to x*4.0 points. It's an interesting way to look at the effect of the PCS edge over the pack that different top skaters have and have had in the past.
Still, I want to have a good cry over Dai's impending retirement...