One feature of the CoP is that a skater can get a big lead in the short program, which carries over to the next phase of the contest. Just how far behind the eight ball is a skater who faces, say, a ten-point deficit going into the free skate?
Here are some ways to look at it, in units of “fall equivalents.” A fall on a triple Lutz, for instance, costs about 3.1 points. This reflects a -3 GOE, factored at 70%, plus the 1-point fall deduction. (We leave out of consideration other errors on the same element, like under-rotation, and also the possible effect of a fall on Program Component Scores.)
So if you are 10 points ahead after the short program, that gives you a three fall cushion over your closest competitor. If you fall three times, losing a total of 3 times 3.1 points, you will still win, everything else being equal.
Here are some other errors that are equivalent to one fall.
* Under-rotating a quad toe. 10.3 – 7.2 = 3.1.
* Omitting altogether a planned level 4 layback or camel spin with either a flying entrance or a change of foot = 3.2 (3.0 for sit spin).
* Omitting a level 3 combination change layback or camel spin = 3.2 (3.0 for sit spin).
^ Popping a double Axel into a under-rotated single Axel with -3 GOE. 3.3 – 0.2 = 3.1.
Error equivalent to two falls
* Downgraded quad toe (10.3 - 4.1 = 6.2)
Scoring equivalent to 3 falls
* Accidentally tacking an extra double toe on to your superb triple Axel (+1 GOE) when you have already done three combinations (Zayak violation) = loss of 9.5 points.
* One extra full point across the board in PCS = 10 points for men, 8 points for ladies.
Summary: If you are ten points behind after the short program you have a reasonable chance to win if your opponent falls three times; or falls twice and doesn’t do one of his spins; or falls once and gets .75 points lower in each program component across the board from every judge; etc.
A six or seven point lead in the short program is about a two-fall advantage.
Wicked Yankee Girl
Mathman, Did you remember to add in the one point deduction per real fall? I'm having trouble finding it.
^ I think so. I used a fall on a triple jump as the standard, so it would apply to both men and ladies. A "-3" GOE is actually -2.1, them there is the extra -1 fall deduction.
A fall on a triple Axel or Quad loses -3 + -1 = -4, so if you plan to fall three times, you should pick and choose carefully which jumps you are going to fall on.
Last edited by Mathman; 01-11-2013 at 10:53 PM.