Michelle and the CoP

How do you think Michelle will fare under Code of Points scoring?

In the recent U.S. Championships Michelle was swept to victory on the crest of a tidal wave of emotion between herself and an adoring audience. Under the ordinal system, her performance netted her seven 6.0s.

But for Worlds 2005 and for the Olympic Games in Torino, it is very likely that the CoP will be in force. Will the new judging system help or hurt her chances?

Mathman

I think it will do neither, provided she puts in some experience with CoP. Next season, she needs to be put together a program, skate it, see where she is losing points, add more difficulty, try again, etc. Without going through this process, she may end up loosing points in places where she could handle far more difficulty. Michelle is a wonderful technical skater, and there is no reason she has to be hurt by Cop.

I also think Michelle can win even without triple-triple combo. CoP rewards good technique, and Michelle has that, plus she is improving on this with Rafael. Look at it this way: most ladies' 3-3 combos use toe loop as the second jump. For Toe loop, the difference in base value between a double and a triple is 3.2. Not that it isn't much, but I think she can easily make up 3.2 points in either areas; as I have already said, provided she ups difficulty in other areas.

There has been some discussion of this in the U.S. National's thread already, and it is an interesting question.

I think Kwan is a quality skater, and certain things - her speed, gorgeous spiral, solid jumps - will do very well under COP.

On the other hand, I think her current program is not built for COP. There is not that much between the jumps, and her spin positions, while classic, do not show the variety and originality rewarded by COP. COP rewards the all-round skater, which Kwan is. The weakest area that I see for her is her spinning, where she is adequate, rather than outstanding. Aside from positions she needs to work on her spin speed.

As well, while her trademark spiral is superb she will have to add more positions to it to up the level of it. Same with her footwork. Also under COP connecting elements with each other seems to garner big point totals, and I think Kwan needs to re-choreograph with that in mind.

I think Kwan is a skater capable of making all these changes for when she must compete under COP, so I don't really see the new judging system hurting her. Time will tell.

The CoP seems to be well embraced by the majority in the skating community. So hopefully Michelle's wise enough to begin taking her program choreography seriously. As great as her Nationals freeskate was, it really was a clone of her last year's LP (which did not have much choreography in it to begin with and which channeled her 2002 LP), just to a different piece of music and altered facial expression with a slightly different middle section. I was very disappointed to see her just stroke through all the wonderful nuances and the crescendo part of the music, thinking how she could have done so much more with them.

Mathman said:

How do you think Michelle will fare under Code of Points scoring?

But for Worlds 2005 and for the Olympic Games in Torino, it is very likely that the CoP will be in force. Will the new judging system help or hurt her chances?

Mathman

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Neither.

Michelle has been competing for a long time even though she is so young.

She is a reasonably good strategist. She needed to improve her spiral to beat Nicole Bobek in 1995 - 96, and she did that.

In 1996, she needed a program with 7 triples and tons of in betweens to beat Lu Chen, she did that with the help of Lori. I think the Salome program was gutsy, and she dared the judges not to give it to her.

1997- the Taj and DOD were the most choreograhically complicated programs. Unfortunately it was not the best strategy. Lori placed the COE spiral at the very beginning of the program, somehow that tired out her muscles, and she had trouble completing the jumps. The Taj program had a lot of in betweens, unfortunately when she fell on one jump, it had a domino effect.

The 6.0 system rewards jumps, so from 1998, her team's strategy was to maximize the number of completed jumps. The strategy worked with Olympic exceptions. BTW, I think if Kwan skated with passion and speed in 1998 Olys like she did in nationals, the gold was hers.

Unfortunately Tara and Sarah are not competing anymore. So Michelle does not have to strategize like an underdog.

If you look at the CoP system, they are only allowing 6 jumping passes. Michelle needs to master some triple/triples, I don't mean 3t/3t to get 7 triples and one double axel into the program.

Cohen will beat her in the spins, so she has to beef up the spins. BTW, have you ever seen her practice spins in the competition practices or warm ups?

Jumps are less important in the new system. (Shizuka's free skate with so much power,flow and a triple lutz/triple toe to boot) was not good enough to place first in the long program in skate canada, tells us a lot. Protocol is still alive in skate canada under CoP.

I think she will do well, if she strategize as if she is the underdog, maybe she is the underdog. I don't think it is a disaster for her to lose one or two competitions to Cohen either. That will put her more in focus to fight, and put the role of defending the title on Cohen.

BTW, Shine I kind of agree and disagree with you. The Tosca program has enough inbetweens, not any less than Sasha's dumped down SL. Michelle had footwork leading into both triple lutzes.

Interesting that ABc showed Peggy Flemmings trade mark spread eagle into double axel to spread eagle. That was 40 years ago? It can't be that difficult. They showed Janet Lynn's flying sit spins, that was decades ago, it can't be that hard. Nowadays practically no lady does that.

I think she will fare very well! Her skills are good enough, especially spirals, spins, and footwork. I love it all!

I think MK will do very well. It's my belief that Michelle and Rafael deliberately chose/created a free program for this season that was devoid of choreography. Remember, Michelle said she'd been working w/Rafael for months before the official coach change was announced. Also, the announcement was sort of like, 'oh this already happened'. I think they'd already started planning on this season together before it was official.

Anyway, I believe that the program was designed specifically to make Michelle focus on the jumps, as her technical content frequently comes under fire. By not doing the GP this season, Michelle could work on a program that would still do well at Nationals and Worlds, without having to make adjustments to the program (which she would if she were using the same program for CoP and 6.0 system), and work on jumps and speed. The payoff has worked so far - not only did Michelle win Nationals, her jumps were incredibly secure and her speed was noticeably improved, even in the spins (in the FP - in the SP her spins were really really slow, but she admitted that she hadn't been practicing the SP much).

I think this is an incredibly canny approach to CoP. My hope is that next season Michelle participates in the GP, and comes out with 2 new programs that are full of the artistic content that she is renowned for, with the added technical content she's spent this season on.

guinevere

I read an article that was in the January 12 edition of USA Today. I think this is very relevant to the topic (I hope it works, it is the first time I have done this!):

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/brennan/2004-01-12-brennan_x.htm

Anyway, I think this is very telling. Michelle has chosen a coach that will push her. If he is saying all of this publicly and especially after such a passionate performance, it must be advice he has already given Michelle. She does need to work on new and better spin combinations and fresh positions. They both know COP is coming and that if she is to continue she will have to step it up.
As for what I expect concerning Michelle and COP, well, I think several people have already expressed similar opinions. Michelle isn't the five-time World Champion for nothing. She is an all-around top-quality skater with few weak points. Michelle is no fool. I believe we'll see the same "Tosca" at Worlds, but if she is serious about Turin there will be something much different for next season. As someone said above, she has been working with Arutunian for too short a time to really make such dramatic changes for this season. But, they should be more than comfortable with each other by this season's end. I believe (if she stays eligible) that we will see something much more dynamic, intricate and COP-fitting for next year. I love that Arutunian is pushing her. I mean, a few moments after receiving a string of 6.0s, he is already telling her what could have been better! I love it! That is what she needs right now. And if she hopes to keep Sasha and others in check for the next two years, she'll have to cater to the COP and step it up to her full potential. She has the sheer passion department cornered without a doubt, but to give herself some breathing room I'd like to see her do all that she can to cement herself as the very best.

From what Michelle and her coach have been saying recently, they are very aware of what needs to be done in order to be competitive. I expect Michelle to do the GP next year with a COP ready program.

I agree. I think we will see Michelle out on the GP circuit next year, refining her program and learning the new system.

BronzeisGolden said:

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I believe we'll see the same "Tosca" at Worlds, but if she is serious about Turin there will be something much different for next season. As someone said above, she has been working with Arutunian for too short a time to really make such dramatic changes for this season.
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I had reason to believe we weren't see the same Tosca at Worlds, at least a 3/3 will be added in. There were several articles reported Rafael confirmed.

From what I heard, the original game plan was to use both programs from last year when they heading off to the Nats. Since they thought ppl don't like Tosca and the Arejanz was a proved program. She had two of her new programs choreographed before she went for Rafael. It was beginning of last Nov. she first time went to Rafael when she had boots problem. She had her boots last cut at midle of last Dec. Given Rafael went Cup of Russia for one week, They really has little to no time to work on programs, and Rafael felt he didn't know Kwan's skating well enough to make any majore changes without disturbing her consistancy with National so close. They were planned making changes after Nats before worlds, which include change two of her jump entry Rafael dosn't like. But after short program they adjusted plan, I believe in that privat ice time they requested at Friday, he changed her Lutz entry. - which is confirmed by my sources who watched it over TV. Who were supprised 'Michelle changed her Lutz entry' when she saw Michelle's 2nd Lutz.

From the progress they made in 1.5 monthes. I have reason to believe Michelle's skating will have more improvment over next 2 monthes going into the worlds.

BTW, according to the source she had got her 3/3 back at middle of Dec. From what I heard Rafael is a no nonsense coach.

If Arutunian comes on strong and forces the 3x3s she'll do fine. From what I heard but unfortunately did not see at Atlanta was that she was consisgently landing 3x3 toes in practice. I would love to see a 3lutz 3loop at Worlds.

One of her biggest competitors is Sasha Cohen who has not used a 3x3 in competition since Worlds. But I would imagine she is working on them too.

With these elements in the program, both skaters will do exceedingly well iin CoP. They both have great Presentation.

Joe

I'm sorry Mzheng, I should have clarified myself. When I said that I didn't think we'd see a different "Tosca" in Dortmund, I was thinking more in terms of intricate choreography and major revamping of spins and positions. It seemed many people expected to see something like "Salome" or "Taj Mahal" in terms of difficult choreography from Michelle at Nationals. She may change a few things such as jump difficulty, but I don't think we'll see anything hugely different choreography wise. Arutunian gives us a hint by saying that he will speak to Michelle seriously about these things after Worlds. This is still a very competitive program due in huge measure to Michelle's performance level. If she skates the way she did at Nationals she will still be difficult to beat.

I was disappointed that Michelle "recycled" her programs from last season. That may have helped her to win under the old 6.0 system. It's hard to say. If she comes up with a couple of new programs, it will be interesting to see how she fares with the new judging system.

COP

I think that COP will be very beneficial to Michelle and will keep her in contention for the next two years. Without it, I'm not sure she could handle the onslaught of teenagers with quads, 3 axels and difficult 3/3's.

This system will reward her impressive basic skating skills. However, I wonder how she will fare vs. Sasha. Sasha has a huge advantage in spins and the COP loves her. The judges don't even take off for the required deductions (e.g. flutzing). Sasha can also hold positions that Michelle's body just can't. Of course, Michelle will likely have a jump advantage in that she usually lands more than Sasha.

The big difference would be if the revisions to COP that have been discussed go into effect. I've heard that the powers that be are aware that by not rewarding the 3/3 combinations, the sport will stagnate. If they begin to reward the combinations, I think Michelle will be at an advantage over Sasha. While I believe SC will begin to skate more cleanly, I don't think she'll have a consistent quad and I'm beginning to doubt she'll have a consistent 3/3 within the next two years. She is still having problems skating cleaning without one. It took her two years of trying to land the first and she hasn't even tried it this season yet. Michelle was very consistent with the 3 toe/3 toe, so this will bode well for her, even if she can't complete any more difficult combos.

So, while I think COP is tailor-made for Sasha, I think if they revise the combo rewards, Michelle will be the big beneficiary.

Joe, Michelle would be amazing if she had a consistent 3 lutz/3 loop. But I'm assuming the loop endings were what caused her hip problems and I doubt she would attempt them again.