Lysacek out of US Nationals

[silverlake22]

Abbott if he skates well. Miner if Abbott doesnt. Pretty simple, has been that way for 2 months atleast now.

Unless Dornbush if Abbott doesn't skate well and Dornbush does. I tend to think clean Dornbush > clean Miner, at least at US Nats, but the odds of Dornbush going clean or close to it are much lower than that of Miner at this point, so I do agree that is the most likely outcome.

As for Farris, I think he could maybe sneak onto the podium in 3rd or 4th place, but I don't think he'll win, PCS inflation I agree won't be as great for him as some others most likely, I think because USFS wants him for 2018, though maybe they'd be open to consider him for 2014 as well now that Evan and Johnny are likely to be non-factors, and especially if there were 3 spots on the team as he's probably a good candidate for a 3rd team member as a young up and comer. I think most likely USFS wants him at JW though, meaning I think the highest he'd place is 3rd, in which case maybe he'd do 4CC and JW or something.

Basically all I'm fairly certain of at this point is that Abbott and Miner will be on the podium somewhere. I'm not sure who will join them or what exact places they'll finish, but that's all I can really assume at this point. Dornbush, Aaron, Messing, Mahbanozadeh Farris, maybe Rippon and Brown, or even Carriere or Razzano, could join them on the podium but it's a tough call.

[pangtongfan]

If Evan skated now as well as he did in the 2010 Olympics, he could still be competitive. Evan skated his ISU personal best at the Olympics, 257.67. That score now ranks 7th on the ISU list of personal best scores. The next highest US men are ranked 15, 16, 18, and 19.

1. Chan 280.98 (2011 WC)
2. Takahashi 276.72 (2012 WTT)
3. Hanyu 264.29 (2012/13 GPF)
4. Plushenko 261.23 (2012 EC)
5. Fernandez 258.62 (2012/13 GPF)
6. Kozuka 258.41 (2011 WC)
7. Lysacek 257.67 (2010 Oly)
...
15. Weir 238.87 (2010 Oly)
16. Abbott 238.82 (2011/12 GPF)
18. Minor 235.37 (2012 NHK)
19. Rippon 233.04 (2011 SC)

7th isnt that good and not worthwhile returning for, for an Olympic and World Champion. What an enormous contrast to Yu Na Kim's whose Vancouver scores still tower above all women today, and will probably not be reached for decades to come, the reigning Olympic mens Champion already way down in 7th place in PBs a few years later.

Furthermore you presume he would get the same GOE and PCS no longer being the reigning World Champion, and having been out of the loop for years while new stars emerged and old ones reestablished themselves, and that is clearly not the case. I guarantee Evan skating as he did in Vancouver today would see a huge drop in PCS especialy. Furthermore the men have had some elements taken away and GOE has been reduced so even the exact same scores in theory would produce a lower score.

[pangtongfan]

Unless Dornbush if Abbott doesn't skate well and Dornbush does. I tend to think clean Dornbush > clean Miner, at least at US Nats, but the odds of Dornbush going clean or close to it are much lower than that of Miner at this point, so I do agree that is the most likely outcome.

As for Farris, I think he could maybe sneak onto the podium in 3rd or 4th place, but I don't think he'll win, PCS inflation I agree won't be as great for him as some others most likely, I think because USFS wants him for 2018, though maybe they'd be open to consider him for 2014 as well now that Evan and Johnny are likely to be non-factors, and especially if there were 3 spots on the team as he's probably a good candidate for a 3rd team member as a young up and comer. I think most likely USFS wants him at JW though, meaning I think the highest he'd place is 3rd, in which case maybe he'd do 4CC and JW or something.

Basically all I'm fairly certain of at this point is that Abbott and Miner will be on the podium somewhere. I'm not sure who will join them or what exact places they'll finish, but that's all I can really assume at this point. Dornbush, Aaron, Messing, Mahbanozadeh Farris, maybe Rippon and Brown, or even Carriere or Razzano, could join them on the podium but it's a tough call.

I dont think the judges would favor a clean Dornbush over a clean Miner this year. Miner has done better internationally this year, has a more reliable quad, and has improved the last couple years while Dornbush has not. Plus as you said Dornbush isnt going to skate cleanly anyway so it doesnt matter.

[silverlake22]

I dont think the judges would favor a clean Dornbush over a clean Miner this year. Miner has done better internationally this year, has a more reliable quad, and has improved the last couple years while Dornbush has not. Plus as you said Dornbush isnt going to skate cleanly anyway so it doesnt matter.

Agree with everything except the more reliable quad part. Dornbush plans the 4t twice in his FS, so he wouldn't do that if it wasn't a consistent jump for him (at least in practice). I would agree that Miner's 4s is nicer and would garner more +GOE compared to Dornbush's 4t when they both land the jumps, but Dornbush has landed more quads in competition at this point than Miner has. But the thing with Ricky is, it doesn't really matter if he lands a clean 4t in his SP when he continues to botch his lutz combo . I almost wish he'd take the quad out of the SP just so he can start skating clean SPs and get the botched combo monkey off his back. But yeah, I like Ricky but I'll admit I'm expecting mistakes from him, likely he'll still end up on the podium in one of the lower spots, I hope he proves me wrong, but, I just don't know. Plus you may be right that the USFS is more vested in Miner at this point just because he is quite a consistent competitor, and Dornbush, well, I'm hoping he's not a headcase, it's still too early to tell, but there are definitely red flags. I actually feel he has improved, too, in his flow and expression, PCS, it's just sometimes hard to tell when all those technical mistakes sneak in and marr the performance.

[pangtongfan]

I think the USFSA is vested in both of those guys and Farris. I think they see those 3 are their future, maybe even their present if Abbott keeps dissapointing internationally (Evan and Johnny are 100% irrelevant at this point even if they somehow decide to turn up next season somewhere are at Nationals).

[SkateFan66]

7th isnt that good and not worthwhile returning for, for an Olympic and World Champion. What an enormous contrast to Yu Na Kim's whose Vancouver scores still tower above all women today, and will probably not be reached for decades to come, the reigning Olympic mens Champion already way down in 7th place in PBs a few years later.

Furthermore you presume he would get the same GOE and PCS no longer being the reigning World Champion, and having been out of the loop for years while new stars emerged and old ones reestablished themselves, and that is clearly not the case. I guarantee Evan skating as he did in Vancouver today would see a huge drop in PCS especialy. Furthermore the men have had some elements taken away and GOE has been reduced so even the exact same scores in theory would produce a lower score.

Considering more male skaters are attempting quads, I was surprised to see that Lysacek was as high as 7th on the ISU personal best list. Moreover, considering many of the current female skaters are not doing 3-3 combos in competiton, it is not surprisng that Yu Na Kim's scores are still the best.

Having seen Evan skate live at least 10 times since the Olympics, I disagree with your opinion that he would have a huge drop in PCS. Since the Olympics, the quality of his skating has remained high, and his execution and performance quality have improved.

[Olympia]

Sums up how I feel about it! But I disagree that Evan, had he not withdrawn, could be the best hope that the US has. The man hasn't competed in how many years? And if he skated exactly like he did when he won the Olys he might not even place in the top 10. The world of men's figure skating has evolved alot since 2010. Quite frankly I'm glad this chapter is seemingly over. So much wishful thinking from Evan's fans!! I think - and I could definitely be wrong - that Evan hasn't found anything to replace figure skating. I dont' even know what he's done other than SOI since the Olympics. And at the age of 27 it's time he figures out what he wants to do with his life when he can't skate anymore. It's hard for any athlete to admit his time has passed - especially when so mych of their life has been dedicated to their sport. I agree with senatormls: CASH IN Evan, and move on.

I think you've brought up an important point. Leaving aside any possibilities Evan has to win internationally this year (might he, for example, qualify for 4CC?), what will he do when he has to step away from skating? He's in a unique position. Unlike lesser skaters, he has enough prestige to be invited to skate in specials or shows like SOI. Unfortunately, these days the North American pro opportunities are greatly diminished from the days when a Caryn Kadavy could have a long pro career. Evan also lacks the charisma of a Brian Boitano, so he couldn't become an event all by himself (thinking of the old TV specials designed around a single star skater). Does he want to remain in skating as a coach? That's an entirely different kind of hard work from what he's used to, and many skaters have trouble making that transition from spotlight to background.

It's moments like this when one admires the paths taken by Sasha on the one hand (skating in the reduced SOI for awhile, and now back to school) and Michelle (make a clean break with skating and embark on another career after retooling one's skills at college and grad school).

Evan has modeled and might be able to move into that fulltime. He has the height and look for modeling, and as a star athlete might be in demand for campaigns like Burberry (which used Harry Potter actress Emma Watson).

[SkateFan66]

I think you've brought up an important point. Leaving aside any possibilities Evan has to win internationally this year (might he, for example, qualify for 4CC?), what will he do when he has to step away from skating? He's in a unique position. Unlike lesser skaters, he has enough prestige to be invited to skate in specials or shows like SOI. Unfortunately, these days the North American pro opportunities are greatly diminished from the days when a Caryn Kadavy could have a long pro career. Evan also lacks the charisma of a Brian Boitano, so he couldn't become an event all by himself (thinking of the old TV specials designed around a single star skater). Does he want to remain in skating as a coach? That's an entirely different kind of hard work from what he's used to, and many skaters have trouble making that transition from spotlight to background.

It's moments like this when one admires the paths taken by Sasha on the one hand (skating in the reduced SOI for awhile, and now back to school) and Michelle (make a clean break with skating and embark on another career after retooling one's skills at college and grad school).

Evan has modeled and might be able to move into that fulltime. He has the height and look for modeling, and as a star athlete might be in demand for campaigns like Burberry (which used Harry Potter actress Emma Watson).

Evan has stated many times, that when he is finished competing, he plans to go to college. He has also stated that he is not interested in coaching. Only time will tell if his plans change.

Regardless of what career path Evan picks, if he approaches the post-skating chapter of his life with the same dedication and determination that he had during his skating career, he will be successful.

[Olympia]

Yes, indeed. And I'm so glad he's considering college. This is a goal I'm always happy to hear about in skaters and nonskaters alike. (I'm still hoping for Tara....)

[pangtongfan]

Considering more male skaters are attempting quads, I was surprised to see that Lysacek was as high as 7th on the ISU personal best list. Moreover, considering many of the current female skaters are not doing 3-3 combos in competiton, it is not surprisng that Yu Na Kim's scores are still the best

Evan has skated cleanly in competitions with the a quad-triple and even the scores he attained that time still would not rank higher than 7th on that list or even top his Vancouver score (in part since the Vancouver singles event scoring was surreal and unreasonable, and the judges were throwing out scores like candy, as Yu Na's scores, excellent skate aside, prove). Meanwhile Yu Na's Vancouver scores which came through exceptional PCS and GOE are so high they would be out of reach for the current ladies even if they skated cleanly with a quadruple, triple axel, and two different 3-3s, especialy with the rule changes which lower scores today as I already pointed out. The current top men surpass prime Evan in every aspect of skating when they skate well, Takahashi and Chan and Hanyu especialy. Even if your claim Evan was in anyway skating better today than in his physical prime under the context of amateur judging standards (which I highly doubt) he is no longer the reigning World Champion and bestowed the current top dog boost in scores which he unquestionably benefited from in the 09-2010 season (please dont tell me you hoestly think all his scores would be exactly the same that year if he didnt win the LA Worlds in 2009, lol), and which people like Chan and Hanyu now benefit from instead. That is another contrast to Kim who despite having not won a major event since the 2010 Olympics is still considered the top dog today, so still probably will get that kind of treatment from judges if she is skating reasonably well.

[golden411]

FWIW, after re-tweeting some words of encouragement from a fan, today @EvanLysacek wrote:

Thank You all for your inspiring messages. They help me push through. Count on 1 thing.... I'll be back!!
12:24 PM - 23 Jan 13

[Olympia]

There are moments when 21st-century social media show that there is a reason for their existence. So great that Evan can receive support from fans and that he can respond to it publicly.

[Butterscotch17]

I'm not saying that Evan is one of the best skaters ever by any means. Certainly on that scale, Plushenko way outranks him. But at this moment, with the state of American men's skating, if Evan could skate as well as he did in 2010 (and I agree that this is doubtful after a long layoff), he's the closest thing we have in this country to a world-class skater. Yes, Abbott is wonderful--in nationals and in the Grand Prix, sometimes. Yes, Miner and Dornbush are potentially good--but forgive me, they've been potentially good for some years now. Weir has passed his prime, and he never had a quad. Refresh my memory. Has any U.S. man gotten into the top 5 since 2010? Into the top 10? So if Evan came along and was actually good (which of course won't happen now, because he's withdrawn--but hypothetically speaking), he'd be a better bet than anyone else we could produce. He'd still have to stand in line behind half a dozen or so skaters from other countries, but at least he'd give us a chance for a top ten finish, especially if he showed his usual steadiness and competitive fire. But it's pointless speculation now. Besides, in terms of preference, the one I'm crossing my fingers for is Daisuke anyway.

I agree with all of this. No, Evan might not be a big threat internationally, but at the moment, none of the U.S. men are. Jeremy has the skills, but you can't count on him to hold it together. If Evan skated as well as he used to, he might be the best the U.S. has right now. I'm still a believer that Ross Miner will do great things, but he hasn't proven it yet.

[pangtongfan]

if Abbott retires without a World medal he will go down as one of the all time headcases. Such a waste of talent.

[silverlake22]

if Abbott retires without a World medal he will go down as one of the all time headcases. Such a waste of talent.

I mean, the same thing could be said of Oda, Verner, and Brezina. He's actually in pretty good company...