Who retires after 2014?
Which international skating stars will retire and which will go on past 2014. This will be a good prediction thread to return too. Here are mine:
Volosozhar & Trankov- go on past 2014. Go on to 2018 if they dont win Oly Gold in 2014, if they do might not go all the way to 2018.
Savchenko & Szolkowy- done after 2014, Oly Gold or not.
Barazova & Larionov- go on past 2014, probably to 2018.
Kavaguti & Smirnov- she is done after 2014, he might continue with new partner.
Duhamel & Radford- will continue to 2018.
Moore-Towers & Moscovitch- will continue past 2014, not sure until 2018 or not.
Denney & Coughlin- unfortunately will probably continue until 2018, unless their personal relationship goes south.
Pang & Tong- done after 2014.
Hui & San- break up soon after 2014 due to height problems.
Chan- done after 2014, win or lose.
Hanyu- stays until 2018.
Takahashi- done after 2014, Oly Gold or not.
Lysacek- done after 2014 (well already done really)
Weir- ditto Lysacek.
Plushenko- done after Sochi Olympics for sure.
Abbott- might continue past 2014, but probably not until 2018. Might try and scalp a world medal in weakish field if he doesnt have one yet.
Miner and Dornbush- staying until 2018.
Reynolds- staying past 2014 to try and see what he can do as Canada's #1 with Chan gone, but probably wont stay until 2018.
Joubert- done after 2014.
Fernandez- going until 2018.
Kozuka- will go past 2018, but maybe not until 2018.
Oda- done after 2014.
Mura and Machida- going until 2018 (Mura possibly longer).
Virtue & Moir- done after 2014.
Davis & White- done after 2014.
Pechelat & Bourzat- done after 2014.
Bobrova & Soloviev- staying until 2018.
Shibutanis- staying until 2018.
Weaver & Poje- staying until 2018
Gilles & Poirier- staying until 2018.
Capellina & Lanotte- done after 2014.
Kim- done after 2014.
Asada- done after 2014.
Kostner- done after 2014.
Wagner- staying past 2014, might or might not stay until 2018.
Nagasu- done after 2014.
Gold- staying until 2018.
Osmond- staying until 2018.
Suzuki- done after 2014.
The ones that make me sad to contemplate (and I'm sure you're right about these leaving after Sochi) are Takahashi, who has said he likely won't skate pro either after he leaves competitive skating, and the top two North American ice dance couples, because I don't know what venues will be available for them as pro skaters (to use the old term because it's the clearest in this case). I shouldn't be selfish: all three of these entities have been around for two Olympic cycles, but I really can't stand to say goodbye to them.
I think W/P will stay past 2014, not to 2018. Ditto Duhamel/Radford and Cappellini/Lannotte. Agree with the rest.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
I think W/P staying until 2018 or not would depend on a variety of things, but largely how they are doing results wise and if they stay #1 in Canada (presuming V/M are gone) or not. They have a better shot to medal at the 2018 Olympics than 2014 though IMO, which is why I expect them to stay. Duhamel & Radford also would have a much better shot to medal at the 2018 Olympics than 2014.
How about Russian ladies, like Julia, Elizaveta, and Adelina? I don't think all three of them would be competing at 2018 Olympics.
I dont see any of the current young Russians retiring soon barring injury. You are right all 3 of those probably wont make the 2018 team, only due to Russian depth, but it doesnt mean any will neccessarily give up before then.
Originally Posted by vera01
True, but but they'll be older then. I see W/P getting a world medal or two, maybe a championship, then getting out of the way (a la Dubreuil/Lauzon or Denkova/Staviski if they actually win. Hell, like DenStav, 2005/2013 is basically a write-off due to health/injuries). D/R... I can see it - though both would be on the older end of things.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Well, I give Fumie Suguri a 50-50 chance
50% she'll stay.
50% she'll reconsider, but stay anyways.
Oh yes how could one forget Fumie Suguri. After missing the Sochi Olympic team (naturally) will she set her sights on the 2018 Olympics as a 37 year old. What will she have dropped down to by then, the event to get into Sectionals which she will no longer get out of to even make Sectionals? Why doesnt she just enter Adult Competitions if she wants to compete so badly rather than competing against 15 year olds in Regional meets trying to get to Nationals (unsuccessfully year after year of late).
This is terrifying! I actually think that all of these teams (maybe not p/b) might continue for some other seasons (I do really hope in any case!) since ice dance is a category in which skaters can be competitive even when older. I think d/w would love to continue, not sure about v/m. c/l could have the best of their careers after Sochi
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I could see D&W possibly staying past 2014, maybe even until 2018, especialy if they dont win Oly Gold in 2014. I did predict them retiring, but it wouldnt shock me if they continued on either. They would be under no threat for the U.S number 1 spot IMO, I really think the Shibutanis have already peaked and wont ever reach the top 3 or 4 in the World again. D&W would still be taking a risk continuing though, the judges might get tired of them being on top so long and start to push some of the younger teams, especialy the Russians, over them. No way do I see V&M continuing past 2014. They even talked about not continuing past 2010 or until 2014 at one point, Tessa has a long history of leg problems, and no matter what they have already won the Olympics and all there is to win.
I don't think d/w pcs would go down. And since they are close to 10 in every category even going down to 9 would still leave them in a comfortable position above all other teams. B/s and d/w are now high 7 to 8 plus so if d/w went down to 9 that would still leave an edge. Even if their tech suffered worse than it is this season - and it is suffering- anything they do even remotely on target gets all +3 goe. D/w might continue knowing the Russians or Canadian replacements of v/m would not be able to reach them for a couple of seasons and maybe there wouldn't be a changing of the guard until after 2018 for gold medals.
I don't see D&W staying until 2018. Right now they are at their peak but in another 3,4 years i don't think so. I don't see them skating into their 30's.
Bona Fide Member
I think that the pair between V/M and D/W who won't win Gold in 2014 will stay until 2018: if V/M won the Gold medal again, they would obviously retire, and D/W would stay till 2018 because I think that they really want that OGM; if D/W whe Gold tehy would be the first North American couple to do so and they would retire,and there would be a possibility of V/M staying until 2018 I think... P/B will be too old to keep competing at high levels, if both D/W and V/M retire they would remain amateur in order to win the 2015 World Title and then retire I think; however, after 2014 the battle for the important levels will be C/L, W/P, B/S and I/K.
In Ladies, Yu-Na, Carolina and Akiko have already announced that they will retire, if Mao doesn't win the OGM she could maybe retire but she could also stay in... I think that Ashley will keep competing, the same for Adelina, Liza and Julia, unless some of them wins the OGM.
I HOPE that Plushy will reitre, Patrcik and Daisuke will retire, too, then it will be Javi vs Yuzuru (unless Hanyu wins the OGM in 2014).
In Pairs, all the top Pairs (S/S, V/T, P/T, K/S) will retire