Who retires after 2014?
Which international skating stars will retire and which will go on past 2014. This will be a good prediction thread to return too. Here are mine:
Volosozhar & Trankov- go on past 2014. Go on to 2018 if they dont win Oly Gold in 2014, if they do might not go all the way to 2018.
Savchenko & Szolkowy- done after 2014, Oly Gold or not.
Barazova & Larionov- go on past 2014, probably to 2018.
Kavaguti & Smirnov- she is done after 2014, he might continue with new partner.
Duhamel & Radford- will continue to 2018.
Moore-Towers & Moscovitch- will continue past 2014, not sure until 2018 or not.
Denney & Coughlin- unfortunately will probably continue until 2018, unless their personal relationship goes south.
Pang & Tong- done after 2014.
Hui & San- break up soon after 2014 due to height problems.
Chan- done after 2014, win or lose.
Hanyu- stays until 2018.
Takahashi- done after 2014, Oly Gold or not.
Lysacek- done after 2014 (well already done really)
Weir- ditto Lysacek.
Plushenko- done after Sochi Olympics for sure.
Abbott- might continue past 2014, but probably not until 2018. Might try and scalp a world medal in weakish field if he doesnt have one yet.
Miner and Dornbush- staying until 2018.
Reynolds- staying past 2014 to try and see what he can do as Canada's #1 with Chan gone, but probably wont stay until 2018.
Joubert- done after 2014.
Fernandez- going until 2018.
Kozuka- will go past 2018, but maybe not until 2018.
Oda- done after 2014.
Mura and Machida- going until 2018 (Mura possibly longer).
Virtue & Moir- done after 2014.
Davis & White- done after 2014.
Pechelat & Bourzat- done after 2014.
Bobrova & Soloviev- staying until 2018.
Shibutanis- staying until 2018.
Weaver & Poje- staying until 2018
Gilles & Poirier- staying until 2018.
Capellina & Lanotte- done after 2014.
Kim- done after 2014.
Asada- done after 2014.
Kostner- done after 2014.
Wagner- staying past 2014, might or might not stay until 2018.
Nagasu- done after 2014.
Gold- staying until 2018.
Osmond- staying until 2018.
Suzuki- done after 2014.
The ones that make me sad to contemplate (and I'm sure you're right about these leaving after Sochi) are Takahashi, who has said he likely won't skate pro either after he leaves competitive skating, and the top two North American ice dance couples, because I don't know what venues will be available for them as pro skaters (to use the old term because it's the clearest in this case). I shouldn't be selfish: all three of these entities have been around for two Olympic cycles, but I really can't stand to say goodbye to them.
I think W/P will stay past 2014, not to 2018. Ditto Duhamel/Radford and Cappellini/Lannotte. Agree with the rest.
Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue
I think W/P staying until 2018 or not would depend on a variety of things, but largely how they are doing results wise and if they stay #1 in Canada (presuming V/M are gone) or not. They have a better shot to medal at the 2018 Olympics than 2014 though IMO, which is why I expect them to stay. Duhamel & Radford also would have a much better shot to medal at the 2018 Olympics than 2014.
How about Russian ladies, like Julia, Elizaveta, and Adelina? I don't think all three of them would be competing at 2018 Olympics.
I dont see any of the current young Russians retiring soon barring injury. You are right all 3 of those probably wont make the 2018 team, only due to Russian depth, but it doesnt mean any will neccessarily give up before then.
Originally Posted by vera01
True, but but they'll be older then. I see W/P getting a world medal or two, maybe a championship, then getting out of the way (a la Dubreuil/Lauzon or Denkova/Staviski if they actually win. Hell, like DenStav, 2005/2013 is basically a write-off due to health/injuries). D/R... I can see it - though both would be on the older end of things.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
Well, I give Fumie Suguri a 50-50 chance
50% she'll stay.
50% she'll reconsider, but stay anyways.
Oh yes how could one forget Fumie Suguri. After missing the Sochi Olympic team (naturally) will she set her sights on the 2018 Olympics as a 37 year old. What will she have dropped down to by then, the event to get into Sectionals which she will no longer get out of to even make Sectionals? Why doesnt she just enter Adult Competitions if she wants to compete so badly rather than competing against 15 year olds in Regional meets trying to get to Nationals (unsuccessfully year after year of late).
Well, just to make it clear I'm not purposely bagging on Fumie, here's her "never give up your dreams" type vid:
Back to the subject.
Ashley- now that she's the now girl, not almost girl- if she medals at Worlds and at Sochi, will it drive her to continue past 2014? If she tries for 2018, she'll be in Kostner/Slutskaya territory agewise, but she doesn't have Kostner's technical skills or Slute's pure jumping ability. Not sure she can overcome some jumps issues to punish her body for the next 4 yrs to eke out some improvments when it'll only get much harder. Really unsure about her. I think she'll do a few more gp events and nationals, maybe 2 yrs at the most. She's already getting more endorsements and recognition nowadays- why kill yourself for another Olympic dream when it's more comfy and profitable at home.
Sorry but Fumie at this point is an embarassment. There is a point too much is too much. She can enter adult competions which is perfectly fine, and she can do those or Senior competions until she is 90 if she pleases, but continuing with elite, especialy considering how expensive it is, and the fact she isnt even a National level (forget international level, let alone international medal contending caliber) skater anymore and hasnt been for years now, is borderling on one wondering about her mental state at htis point.
Cappellini & Lanotte have said they might continue after 2014.
This is a good argument for getting an education and not being reliant on the sport to provide future income, because the professional opportunities are extremely limited. That's why I worry about these skaters in their early 20s who decide to stay on for 4 more years until the next Olympics because it becomes so much harder to start college in your mid to upper 20s.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
This is terrifying! I actually think that all of these teams (maybe not p/b) might continue for some other seasons (I do really hope in any case!) since ice dance is a category in which skaters can be competitive even when older. I think d/w would love to continue, not sure about v/m. c/l could have the best of their careers after Sochi
Originally Posted by pangtongfan