I worry about Chen. He's such a workhorse, and as they mentioned in the icenetwork article, when you train that hard, injuries happen. And he's just so little. I know he'll grow eventually, and I'm really proud he didn't withdraw and fought through everything, but he's just awfully young to be training that hard. At least this experience will help alleviate some of the pressure. He has so much to offer to the sport I just hope he can stay healthy through these tough teen years. Zhou too is a phenom, but again so young. He'll likely have a rough year down the road, seems like it happens to most skaters at some point or another. It will be interesting to see the little guys grow up. I hope Vincent doesn't push himself too hard where he's still got a year and a half to go before he's old enough for even JGP!
I liked Omori's fight. He'll most likely be going to Junior Worlds I presume, and I think he could do well there too. Lots to admire about his skating, very organic lines and understated elegance. He's a little awkward and gangly for now but I think he could be great once he adjusts to his long limbs and gains more control over his nerves. He kind of resembles Hanyu physically and in some of the movements. Hope he can build on this.
Well his team (Artunian, namely) is clearly aware of the issue, methinks and I think will work to make sure Nathan doesn't over go it. I think Vincent Zhou will be fine too, Tammy seems to be doing a good job pacing him and not forcing him to do things too soon.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Glad to see Omori succeed here after some so-so competitions. Though is he really a sure thing for Jr. Worlds? Harrison Choate is also competing internationally in the junior level and has bronze from JGP. So perhaps they might opt to pick all their junior world folks from the senior level.
At the rink. Again.
I am guessing World Junior Team (men) will be Farris (unless he makes the Senior team by some happenstance), Brown, and either Choate, Omori or Chen (if he's healthy)
Choate is age eligible but I think Omori is the smarter pick as Harrison has no 3a and usually struggles a bit with his 3f-3t combo in the SP (he doesn't even try a 3-3 in the FS), so totally clean he'll likely score around the same as Omori with mistakes. At sectionals he skated 2 almost perfect programs and his total score was 190, and Omori had 189 here with one less element and a few major errors in his FS. So I think unless Choate's placement is really good in the senior event, and his score is significantly above Omori's score from Nationals (likely 200+, which idk if that's even possible for Harrison unless he plans to try a 3a or something for the first time here). The JGP scores/placements between Omori and Choate were comparable anyways so I think the odds are pretty good that Omori goes. He has better odds to place better than Choate anyways, and probably a 3a-less Chen too.
I think even if Farris were to place 2nd he wouldn't be sent to Worlds anyways, though with a 2nd-4th place finish he (or Brown) might get offered 4CC in which case another spot might open up and Chen or Choate could go. But I guess it might be possible to go to 4CC and JW...ack, well, at this point, there's just too many possibilities. And after Josh placed 16th last year behind a bunch of skaters he's way better and has way more content then, who knows, maybe Choate beats him at Nationals and then the USFS doesn't send Omori because they'd be dumb not to send Farris after he almost won last year and did so well on the JGP this year and is a contender for the title, but if he places behind Choate at Nationals, then it looks bad to skip over someone and yada yada yada. I'm really hoping Josh's luck at Nationals turns around this year but with a field like this it's easy for weird things to happen.
Last edited by silverlake22; 01-23-2013 at 03:50 PM.
At the rink. Again.
Everyone thought Dornbush was going to go to JW and Abbott to Worlds 2 years ago, but that didn't happen, so I would guess if Farris ends up in the top 2, he's going to Senior Worlds as a matter of following "standard and customary practice" and not get people's panties in a bunch.
Chen landed the 3A at his first JGP this fall and had recovered it after his injuries a couple weeks ago by all reports and probably healthy would have tried it here. He's got more "upside" since he's barely age eligible for international junior events (and USFS seems to think he and Zhao are definitely on the watch list for the future) and had a monster score at that first JGP event (222+, AFAIK and healthy AT HIS second event, probably would have made the final and given the podium a run for their money). We'll see what happens, but right now, if Chen is healthy, I've got my money on him making the JW team with Brown and Farris, but I suspect it will be contingent on his health and monitoring. If Farris goes to Senior Worlds, then I think Omori will go in his place.
I was wondering about Chen too. To me he still seems to be fighting injuries, but I don't know the story. Omori posted his highest score of the season at Nationals, and his FS wasn't exactly spectacular, so while he has loads of potential, Chen could be a smarter choice. I mean, Chen was injured at Sectionals and easily beat Omori there, and even his FS last night, where he was clearly under the weather and was obviously far from his best, the segment score was only 2 points lower than Shotaro, who wasn't perfect either but like I said, that was his personal best FS score. So if Chen really is not injured or seriously ill, he would be a strong candidate for JW and would probably do very well there, but if he's still fighting off nagging injuries, then it might just be smarter to stick to Nationals results, avoid potential controversy, and send Omori instead. I guess we'll know in a few days time anyways.
Also the Dornbush situation was a little different, that season the US senior men had really been struggling internationally that fall, Jeremy had the boot problems, Miner showed up to Nats vastly improved from his GPs, and Bradley didn't even compete in the fall, and remember Dornbush had that big win at the JGPF and after that a lot of people were talking about how he was really in the mix to go to Worlds. Farris was very strong at JGP Lake Placid and beat Han Yan the JWC in Slovenia, but he was only a distant second at the JGPF, granted, the result was most likely due to the allergic reaction he had, but I think if he had beaten Kovtun and posted a very convincing score, USFS might be considering him more strongly as a contender for senior worlds then they likely are at this point. None of the senior men were great on the GP this fall either, but Abbott, Miner, and Dornbush all did fairly well and Aaron, Messing, and Mahbanoozadeh have also had fairly successful seasons thus far as well. I doubt Farris places 2nd anyways so it's a moot point, he has the skills to do it, I just don't think the judges will be boosting up his PCS like they might do for some others just because I think they want Farris at JW, whereas in 2011, given the situation, I think they really were pulling for Dornbush to go to senior worlds just because he was skating so well and others weren't (he ended up being the top placed American guy there to boot).
At the rink. Again.
It's not that much different in Senior men this year - Abbott has had a crappy fall (for him) with the back problems and Miner has posted the highest score internationally this fall and no one else has really had a good fall international season. I would not call Dornbush's results this fall "fairly well" as his scores have been pretty much buried and he's been totally unpredictable consistency wise (except you know he's good for a couple mistakes). I am pretty sure in 2011, USFS wanted to send Dornbush to JWs (lost out on a couple international JGP spots initially due to the highest finish only being like 8th and only got them back from the sub list) and really didn't expect Dornbush to finish 2nd overall (no one really expected Abbott to skate that poorly in the long). Let's say Farris pulls off something similar where he's just wonderful and Abbott still isn't fully healthy and struggles in the LP and the results look something like:
If you think Farris isn't going to Senior Worlds in that scenario (which is kinda like what the 2011 scenario was), well, I got some swamp land in Arizona I could sell you...
Fair point and I hope you're right, I would love to see Josh go to Worlds or 4CC, I guess I'm just trying not to get my hopes up after what happened at Nationals last year. I think he's really great and capable of scoring very well if he does what he can, so I'm just hoping for the best and am anxious to see the results! Apparently he practiced well today.
Originally Posted by mskater93
Also it's worth noting Dornbush placed 2nd in 2011 without even having a great SP. He was okay, but didn't try a quad and all his jumps were nervy on the landing, so he was only in the penultimate warmup with a sub-70 score but then his FS was good enough to pull him up all the way to 2nd, ahead of Jeremy who had around 10 points on him after the SP. So, anything really can happen. Plus I think the SP outcome could be interesting, Josh won't try the quad there, a bunch of the others (Miner, Dornbush, Mahbanoozadeh, Aaron - not sure about Abbott, Messing, etc) will, but I tend to think a clean SP from someone like Josh would score ahead of a SP with a fall on the quad (or other mistakes) from most of these other guys. If the guys are succesful with the quads, then yeah that's a big advantage and the scores will likely be big, but add a mistake and all of a sudden it seems like the quad in the SP really isn't worth the risk unless it's rock solid.
Last edited by silverlake22; 01-24-2013 at 12:54 PM.
At the rink. Again.
Abbott said no quad in the SP. He doesn't think he needs it there.
It looks like the Zhous uploaded some clips from Junior Nationals, including a really nice quality version of the LP! Really impressed by how he carries his choreography and finishes his jumps. Also, his outfit is impeccable. :P I hadn't watched the rest because I forgot you can watch it On Demand. I will soon XD
Vincent Zhou's SP
Vincent Zhou's LP
Nice clip of the podium too