Osmond vs. Kim in PCS, a huge gap?

PS. This is why people used to like to watch figure skating back in the 1990s.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFurTW8OHxM#t=1m3sec

wallylutz said:

I don't agree. People have been talking about Osmond long before she went to the Canadian Championships this year.

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Yes. They were talking about her from Skate Canada, 2012. LOL I didn't hear much chatter about her on the forums before that.

wallylutz said:

Secondly, I'd argue Canada has produced some fairly decent female skaters who can perform - even Phaneuf was a great performer - just not a great jumper.

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Eh..."great performers"? For me, personally, the last captivating Canadian Ladies singles skater was Josee Chouinard. That's going wayyyy back. I can't believe it's been like, 20 years since I saw her skating (on TV).

Kaetlyn Osmond is remarkable for me in that sense. Finally, another Canadian lady with a ton of personality and spunk on the ice!

Mathman said:

A triple Axel possesses a certain gravitas, even a majesty. Pimping it out with frivolous adornments diminishes the artistic and athletic statement that the element makes in isolation.

And please don't tack on a double toe-loop. That's like drawing a little Mickey Mouse in the corner of a Rembrandt.

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Hah. Aesthetically, I agree. But--we have to respect the athletic aspect, too. Although I might be able to name one mod who potentially would consider the Rembrandt elevated for having a Disney doodle drawn next to it...

Krislite said:

I still don't see how these suggest in any way that Kaetlyn could realistically close the PCS gap with Yuna. Last year Kostner had a fantastic season and at Worlds she averaged in the low 8's for PCS--the highest all year. The previous season Miki Ando likewise had a fantastic season and built up momentum, and her PCS peaked at around 8 at Worlds. These were veterans who had built up a reputation over many years--Miki was herself a previous World Champion.

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I am not sure where you saw any suggestions I made that referenced to "Kaetlyn could realistically close the PCS gap with Yuna" in my reply. I think you completely misunderstood my post. The points I made and I will spell them out in plain English :

1) PCS marks can change quite a bit for a same skater within the same season, this occurs quite frequently and not specific to any person or discipline

2) In my opinion, based on Osmond and Kim's respective FS at their Nationals, I noted certain aspects of their skating where Osmond is already doing better than Kim, notably TR and CH. Further to that, I have some concerns about Kim's interpretation of Les Misérables.

3) Reputation judging is a two-way street for both fans and judges. Use history as your guide but don't assume they are the limits.

If these veteran heavy weights could not touch Yuna's PCS ceiling of 9 in their very best season, how can an utter neophyte--even of Kaetlyn's caliber--get that high? And your example of Tara Lipinski does not quite work. Yuna to Kaetlyn is not Michelle to Tara. Kaetlyn's jumps and combinations are hardly superior to Yuna. She Flutzes, does no combo harder than a 3T/3T and likewise cannot do the loop. Tara was a jumping bean who truly out-jumped Michelle. The same cannot be said of Kaetlyn. The most you can argue is that her choreography and transitions are superior, but these alone cannot close the PCS gap especially when reputation is taken into account.

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Take a deep breath and now read my post: "I do not believe Kaetlyn is going to challenge Yuna at the 2013 World Championships." I think you are confusing my thread with the other one started by someone else in December re: Osmond being the 2013 World Champion. That was from a passionate fan of Kaetlyn Osmond but I don't think such expectation is realistic. Now that this is clear, I will say this : You are relying way too much on past results and reputation in your reasoning. One of the main intentions of this thread is to get people to forget about reputation and historical results for a few minutes and simply look at these two skaters, one after the other and come up with an opinion. In other words, say these two people are not Yu Na Kim and Kaetlyn Osmond, but instead they are simply skater A and B - what can you (2nd person, plural) say re: each of their components? Indeed, many members independently came up with similar comments, which you also conceded is the Transition and Choreography. Some people went as far as giving the Performance aspect to Osmond as well. And now, re-read my post #1 - what are the 3 aspects I identified that I felt Yu Na left the door open for Osmond and others to challenge her on? TR, CH and IN. Setting aside IN because it can indeed be somewhat subjective, the consensus here seem to always circle back to TR and CH. Clearly, I saw something concrete enough that when I identified them here, many people said: "Hey, I think I noticed that too." Within a few days, this thread gathered almost 10000 views, I'd say this is not possible unless we are making some good points in here.

With that said, it doesn't change the fact Kaetlyn is not going to challenge Yu Na this year. Kim will have some competition but it will likely be from other more veteran skaters. Yes, some aspects of Kaetlyn's skating are showing great promise - one can even say it's starting to catch up if not surpassing Yuna's but at this point, it's only fractions - not the whole picture. This is why when you made that comment in the Canadian Championship sub-forum "of course big gap on PCS...", I decided to challenge you on that comment because I know what I saw and I am telling you, the gap is not as big as you might think and this thread served to validate just that.

Since when were components measured against each individual skater's potential? Isn't it supposed to be a kind of distribution, where 5 is "average" for a senior lady? That is at least what the ISU guides suggest. If so, then the right comparison is not what Yuna herself is potentially capable of, but what senior ladies these days are actually doing with respect to transitions. Considering the dearth of complex, intricate or difficult transitions even among the top ladies, giving Yuna 6.5 or less for transitions in her free program is hardly just. How many of them even attempt both the Lutz and the Flip and do any kind of preceding moves to these jumps?

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You confused the question I asked you with the standards. Components are not measured against each skater's potential but they can however be compared to what other skaters are doing though judges aren't required to do so. When Yu Na is skating at about 60% of her ability while others are giving their 90%, the door will be open for others to challenge her. Take example of their respective solo Triple Flip jump in their Free Skate. Yu Na did a series of Choctaw, which based on an in-depth discussion with gkelly here, I do not see how that that could satisfy the creative / difficult entry bullet for GOE and its equivalent in the TR component. Yet, if you look at what Kaetlyn did, for the same jump, the whole sequence was packed with steps and turns, adding an Ina Bauer in the middle, then the jump. It's not hard to see why unanimously, many here are suggesting the young Canadian has better transitions already - it is that obvious.

Mrs. P said:

Exactly. The issue for me is that we lack comparable data points for Yuna and Kaetlyn. It's been made clear to me that it's really difficult to compare across competitions. But forget that, if you do careful data analysis of the entire field and probabilities it's pretty apparent to me you can't definitely say she will medal or not.

To be fair, however, Nate Silver sadly incorrectly guessed that the Seattle Seahawks would be going to the Super Bowl. :sad: (Though I'm thrilled that it's a Harbaurgh Bros. Super Bowl; their father, Jack, was a football coach at my alma mater).

Likewise Kaetlyn can prove us wrong and shake up our Nate Silver predictions (that's why March Madness, for example, is so thrilling!).

That said, I have no problem with enthusiasm!

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I agree with you that the concept of uncertainty looms rather large in skating. Of course, if one takes this too much to heart, a la Wittgenstein ("Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must remain silent"), one might be in danger of relocating to the Norwegian countryside and not speaking for six months. Commenting on future figure skating events would, of course, be out of the question. (Volleying the ball back into Mathman's rhetorical court, this would not be my preferred approach to figure skating commentary ).

On the one hand, I understand that pushing somewhat beyond the bounds of the (strictly) factually supportable can be a good thing, that there is a role for being "provocative" and a gadfly in stimulating discussions. On the other hand, there is the danger that controversy is pursued for controversy's sake, and it becomes a kind of empty intellectual baiting (a form of mental master baiting, in fine ).

The line between the former and the latter is not always clearly visible, as Nate Silver and his ill-fated football prediction demonstrates. (I'm a longtime Patriots fan, and am still mourning the woulda-coulda-shouldas of this season).

prettykeys said:

Yes. They were talking about her from Skate Canada, 2012. LOL I didn't hear much chatter about her on the forums before that.

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In fairness, people did comment on her at Nationals 2012 (where she won the SP, beating out LaCoste and Phaneuf) and after Nebelhorn (where she outright won). But I don't really see how the initial point is germane to this discussion.

ImaginaryPogue said:

In fairness, people did comment on her at Nationals 2012 (where she won the SP, beating out LaCoste and Phaneuf) and after Nebelhorn (where she outright won). But I don't really see how the initial point is germane to this discussion.

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Indeed I remember those comments from last year's Canadian nationals/Nebelhorn, but I don't think it takes away from your point IP RE: standing out as a Canadian lady.

Mathman said:

PS. This is why people used to like to watch figure skating back in the 1990s.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFurTW8OHxM#t=1m3sec

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Mathman, I know this may be a futile effort on my part but I have to say it. At some point, you are just going to have to stop lamenting about the past and move on. The world has changed, so is this sport. The days when skaters can get by with just jumps and a fairly empty program by posing and rolling on ice to pass for "artistry" are long gone.

Mrs. P said:

Indeed I remember those comments from last year's Canadian nationals/Nebelhorn, but I don't think it takes away from your point IP RE: standing out as a Canadian lady.

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I think she would stand out anywhere, not just in Canada. You place her at the most recent Japanese Nationals, her performance skills will still make her stand out even though some of the girls there have harder jumps.

wallylutz said:

I think she would stand out anywhere, not just in Canada. You place her at the most recent Japanese Nationals, her performance skills will still make her stand out even though some of the girls there have harder jumps.

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That I don't dispute. But I think IPs point is she REALLY shines even more because she's first Canadian lady since Joannie to have the goods. Again if she competing while Joannie was competing, would she be getting the same amount of buzz?

wallylutz said:

Mathman, I know this may be a futile effort on my part but I have to say it. At some point, you are just going to have to stop lamenting about the past and move on. The world has changed, so is this sport. The days when skaters can get by with just jumps and a fairly empty program by posing and rolling on ice to pass for "artistry" are long gone.

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We all wish for parts of the past - it's natural... I wish Scott was still skating.. Browning still had hair...

wallylutz said:

Mathman, I know this may be a futile effort on my part but I have to say it. At some point, you are just going to have to stop lamenting about the past and move on. The world has changed, so is this sport. The days when skaters can get by with just jumps and a fairly empty program by posing and rolling on ice to pass for "artistry" are long gone.

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Haha!

Well Florent Amodio has done hip thrusts while standing still...and Miki Ando did OK for herself in the 2010-2011 season when she was pointlessly posing until the halfway point of her LP after which she crammed in like 5 jumping passes... and yet her Program Component scores weren't exactly demolished for it.

Mrs. P said:

That I don't dispute. But I think IPs point is she REALLY shines even more because she's first Canadian lady since Joannie to have the goods. Again if she competing while Joannie was competing, would she be getting the same amount of buzz?

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Why not? Because that's how Patrick Chan rose to prominence while Jeff Buttle was the #1 guy in Canada, the reigning Olympic Bronze medalist at the time. People were buzzing about Chan in the 2007-08 season more than Buttle. So much that, even Kurt Browning was quoted saying he wasn't sure if the hype is real or not. It was not until the next year that Kurt confessed that he became a believer. In that season, Chan beat Buttle at the Canadian Nationals for the title even though Buttle went on to win the Worlds that year.

wallylutz said:

Why not? Because that's how Patrick Chan rose to prominence while Jeff Buttle was the #1 guy in Canada, the reigning Olympic Bronze medalist at the time. People were buzzing about Chan in the 2007-08 season more than Buttle. So much that, even Kurt Browning was quoted saying he wasn't sure if the hype is real or not. It was not until the next year that Kurt confessed that he became a believer. In that season, Chan beat Buttle at the Canadian Nationals for the title even though Buttle went on to win the Worlds that year.

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You have a point, but I still maintain that Kaetlyn has some buzz momentum by standing out so clearly from the Canadian ladies. Never hurts to be Canadian No. 1 by a mile. (Or any No. 1 for that matter).

Mrs. P said:

You have a point, but I still maintain that Kaetlyn has some buzz momentum by standing out so clearly from the Canadian ladies. Never hurts to be Canadian No. 1 by a mile. (Or any No. 1 for that matter).

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I think it would've made news to have two ladies who could contend in the top 10 - and more convincingly that Phaneuf!

Osmond May Challenge Kim Yuna

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/01/23/2013012300798.html

Mrs. P said:

To be fair, however, Nate Silver sadly incorrectly guessed that the Seattle Seahawks would be going to the Super Bowl. :sad:

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But who could have predicted the finish of that game!

Robeye said:

I agree with you that the concept of uncertainty looms rather large in skating. Of course, if one takes this too much to heart, a la Wittgenstein ("Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must remain silent"), one might be in danger of relocating to the Norwegian countryside and not speaking for six months. Commenting on future figure skating events would, of course, be out of the question. (Volleying the ball back into Mathman's rhetorical court, this would not be my preferred approach to figure skating commentary ).

On the one hand, I understand that pushing somewhat beyond the bounds of the (strictly) factually supportable can be a good thing, that there is a role for being "provocative" and a gadfly in stimulating discussions. On the other hand, there is the danger that controversy is pursued for controversy's sake, and it becomes a kind of empty intellectual baiting (a form of mental master baiting, in fine )

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Now we're getting somewhere. Wittgenstein was quite critical of the work of Kurt Gödel on the foundations of mathematics. Gödel proved that if a system of axioms is consistent, then it cannot be proven to be consistent. But if an axiomatic system is inconsistent, then it can be proven to be consistent (hence inconsistent). Thus if anyone offers a logical proof that he is not contradicting himself, we can be certain that he is.

Godel did not comment on logic in figure skating. But this is why I get in trouble with Imaginary Pogue and others who want me to be logical – or at least consistent -- on this board.

Don't we have too many threads on this? Seriously, there are several concurrent discussion threads all talking about Kaetlyn Osmond vs. Yuna Kim. I think this should be merged with "Kaetlyn Osmond: 2013 World Champion?"

Isn't Chosun a Korean newspaper? It's interesting that Korean media is talking about her now.

Slightly different argument, if I may

It doesn't matter if Kim doesn't get the PCS she got at the Olympics. That standard hasn't been met since then and barring something unexpected, it won't be. Compare that to the standard set by Lysacek (82.80 PCS for the LP). That has been met or beaten by: Abbott, Fernandez, Kozuka, Chan, Hanyu, Plushenko and Takahashi. It was beaten at that Olympics by both Lambiel and Takahashi, of course. Simply speaking, the field hasn't left her behind - not technically nor otherwise.

wallylutz said:

Mathman, I know this may be a futile effort on my part but I have to say it. At some point, you are just going to have to stop lamenting about the past and move on. The world has changed, so is this sport. The days when skaters can get by with just jumps and a fairly empty program by posing and rolling on ice to pass for "artistry" are long gone.

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To me, the sad part is that although the sport has moved on, it left most of its audience behind.