2013 US Nationals Senior Ladies SP

[Jammers]

Agnes is not known to be a good free skater. I would be surprised if she holds it together. I think it is going to be Ashley and Mirai for the world team.

Mirai is not known as a great free skater either.

[mateusp1]

Agnes got +1,8 for her 3T+3T... That means she recieved (4)four +3 and 3(three) +2. Also, she got +1,4 for her Lutz.

Sometimes, Agnes reminds me of Kostner(my favorite skater). Tall, fast, massive jumps, great basic skills and edges, nice music choices... I think that Agnes will be the "new Kostner".

[willdu]

Mirai has actually done pretty decently on the international stage- excluding the highlights of 2010, she's actually done ok with 4CC and the SGP. I'm going off the top of my head here, but hasn't Mirai won more medals on the SGP (read 2) than Agnes (0)?

I don't have a live stream so I can't compare the two in this competition... but having watched that youtube clip- how on earth did Mirai only get .79+ GOE on her final layback spin?? Are the judges blind??

She traveled quite a bit before centering her layback. Perhaps that was it?

[Selene]

Gold needs more confidence/experience at the senior level. Sending any skater to Worlds their first year as a senior is a mistake, IMO. Caroline seems out of the question, if the SP standings mean anything. Christina hasn't shown much consistency until this season, and still seems to struggle for a clean FS. Agnes has less international experience than Mirai, and if Mirai ends up second, she'll probably be sent to Worlds.

She needs to learn how to control her nerves. Right now, she is the champion of the practices, but not a competitor. Her performances this season have been very disappointing.

[icellist]

but having watched that youtube clip- how on earth did Mirai only get .79+ GOE on her final layback spin?? Are the judges blind??

agreeing with other users that the centering wasn't there for the layback but still furious about the levels she got on the combo spin

[Icey]

Poor caroline, how she finds the fortitude to continue is beyond me. All of the PCS's were in the 6 point range. Of course, even Gao had a few 6's too.

[pangtongfan]

Agnes got +1,8 for her 3T+3T... That means she recieved (4)four +3 and 3(three) +2. Also, she got +1,4 for her Lutz.

Sometimes, Agnes reminds me of Kostner(my favorite skater). Tall, fast, massive jumps, great basic skills and edges, nice music choices... I think that Agnes will be the "new Kostner".

She has that potential for me. She needs to get over her headcaseness though, and she can be the American version of Kostner. Kostner was winning World medals even when she was a headcase but I doubt they will be that generous to a U.S skater who makes mistakes.

[wallylutz]

Well, I definitely don't think this SP does her justice at all.

Even so, Agnes being in front of her is nonsense. I do like Mirai's FS. Go Mirai!!!!! We love you!

Well, I can see why Agnes is placed above Mirai despite the fall on the 2A. The fall really only cost her about 2-2.5 points in terms of GOE (including both actual loss and opportunity loss), the higher BV of her Triple Lutz vs. Mirai's Triple Loop compensated about half of that difference already. Then, Mirai lost some levels on one spin and the step sequence so, the difference is pretty much erased, and then some.

The bottom line is the call could go either way and Agnes being in the front is not a nonsense, just a close call.

[Orange Cat]

She traveled quite a bit before centering her layback. Perhaps that was it?

*rewatches the video*

Oh. She does travel a bit. Point taken.

Still, considering where she was last year, I think Mirai's in a pretty damn good position. I hope she holds it all together for the FS!!

[willdu]

Videos Thread:
Zhang: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhj4RKMSSH4&sns=em
Mirai: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SA4zR8meDA&sns=em
Agnes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzLFb2QlgXQ&sns=em
Wagner:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1mUfXShd0s

[aftertherain]

Agnes how could you screw up the 2axel?

Like this:
http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m2...qvu8o2_250.gif

(No bashing here, just found the gif really really funny.)

[willdu]

Like this:
http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m2...qvu8o2_250.gif

(No bashing here, just found the gif really really funny.)

This reminded me of Mao's butt flop for her 3a.

[evangeline]

Then Agnes also got higher PCS, in part due to skating last while Mirai skated very early. This latter would have been far worse under 6.0 than under CoP. So for anyone who wants to rescore this using 6.0 - know that skating early used to be the kiss of death for many skaters considering that in the past, skating order was a total random draw and the design of 6.0 forced judges to save marks or else risk running out room for their ordinals.

Yep, Maria Butyrskaya famously burst into tears when she drew first to skate in the SP at the 1998 Olympics in Nagano...she knew she would have to work hard for every ordinal.

[Mrs. P]

Mrs. P's protocal breakdown THE TES.

Base Value (as executed):
Agnes 30.43
Courtney 29.93
Yasmin 29.93
Christina 29.21
Mirai 28.63
Angela 28.30
Gracie 27.70
Ashley 27.64
Samantha 27.21
Hannah 25.86
Ashley C. 23.90
Caroline 23.50

GOE
Ashley 7.10
Mirai 6.10
Agnes 5.51
Courtney 4.14
Samantha 3.53
Hannah 2.77
Christina 2.72
Yasmin 2.21
Ashley C. 1.38
Gracie 1.04
Angela .64
Caroline .20

TES
Agnes 35.94
Ashley 34.74
Mirai 34.73
Courtney 34.07
Yasmin 32.14
Christina 31.93
Samantha 30.74
Angela 28.94
Gracie 28.74
Hannah 28.63
Ashley C. 25.28
Caroline 23.70

Jumps
Mirai 20.02
Courtney 19.79
Agnes 19.53
Ashley 19.44
Christina 18.72
Samantha 17.04
Yasmin 16.17
Angela 14.93
Gracie 13.70
Ashley C. 12.87
Hannah 12.39
Caroline 9.67 (YIKES! -- She scored less on all her jumps than Agnes did on one jumping pass (3T-3T = 10))

Non Jumps
Agnes 16.41
Hannah 16.24
Yasmin 15.97
Ashley 15.30
Gracie 15.04
Mirai 14.71
Courtney 14.28
Caroline 14.03
Angela 14.01
Samantha 13.70
Christina 13.21
Ashley C. 12.41

[ImaginaryPogue]

Mrs. P, Zawadski scored 10 points on her triple triple - she reversed them according to icenetwork.

Mirai has actually done pretty decently on the international stage- excluding the highlights of 2010, she's actually done ok with 4CC and the SGP. I'm going off the top of my head here, but hasn't Mirai won more medals on the SGP (read 2) than Agnes (0)?

I don't have a live stream so I can't compare the two in this competition... but having watched that youtube clip- how on earth did Mirai only get .79+ GOE on her final layback spin?? Are the judges blind??

Agnes has won one GP medal - CoR 2012. Nagasu won two in 2012, one in 2011 along with a 4CC bronze that year as well.

Reginald, yes - it's generally better to fall on a fully rotated jump than downgrade/UR another. When it's an easy jump like a 2A, the penalty is actually quite small (1.5 points lost on the element, one fall deduction for 2.5 points). Zhang's downgrade cost her more than that, and then two URs on top of it...... Zawadski scored 10 points for her triple triple. Zhang scored 9.67.. for all three of her jump passes. So Zawadski had a two element lead based on the jumps alone. When you consider the fact that her lutz is of very high quality.... it's super easy to mitigate the fall.

Now, the case with Nagasu is a little more complicated. But again, it comes down to base value. Zawadski lost those 2.5 points on the 2A. But she makes up 1.8 points in terms of base value and GOE on her two other elements. So the jump loss is only 0.7. Now, the youtube link provided doesn't convince me that Nagasu lost a great deal undeservingly PCS wise - it's a by-the-numbers skate with a major focus on landing the elements cleanly - which she does. Does Zawadski make up 1.7 points with her other elements and components?