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Thread: 2013 US Nationals Senior Ladies SP

  1. #391
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    ... My heart actually breaks for Caroline. Not for the performance itself, which was lovely (and she looked so happy and relaxed), but after, when she heard her marks. Just- no.

    Thanks for posting these, though. It sucks not being able to access a live stream, so fast uploads and swift linkers are much appreciated.

    ETA: Thanks, IP, for the correction on the GP medal count. Clearly my memory isn't that great...
    Last edited by Orange Cat; 01-24-2013 at 11:46 PM.

  2. #392
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    I don't care what kind of score Caroline got, it was a lovely performance. I think with such a small cushion going into the long, Ashley is going to feel the pressure. At the moment, I am inclined to think Agnes is going to pull off an upset.

  3. #393
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    Ashley probably handles pressure better then any US Lady right now by far. She's always been a strong free skater. Agnes is the one who needs to prove she can skate clean in a LP.

  4. #394
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    Quote Originally Posted by Icey View Post
    I don't care what kind of score Caroline got, it was a lovely performance. I think with such a small cushion going into the long, Ashley is going to feel the pressure. At the moment, I am inclined to think Agnes is going to pull off an upset.
    Not necessarily. Ashley has more rep now internationally. Of course Ashley needs to skate credibly well in the fp, but I don't see USFS crippling their front runner all things being equal. Agnes was definitely surprised at receiving such a high score in the sp so that may give her confidence, or it might not. Last year, Agnes came out of the blocks wonderfully in her sp and faltered in the fp. Agnes is a very good skater, but I don't see her as being a Kostner just because of similar speed. Agnes doesn't yet really have a well-defined personality on the ice. And neither did Kostner for awhile earlier in her career. Kostner is just lucky to be from Italy where Nationals was no big pressure deal, and she was assured of making Worlds year after year and having the opportunity to gain top level experience year after year, until she blossomed (particularly after a summer training in the United States with Frank Carroll).

  5. #395
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    Mrs. P Protocal breakdown pt. 2 - PCS

    PCS Overall:
    Ashley 32.83
    Agnes 30.37
    Mirai 29.66
    Christina 27.81
    Gracie 26.34
    Caroline 26.29
    Hannah 25.84
    Yasmin 25.74
    Courtney 25.65
    Ashley C. 25.55
    Samantha 25.00
    Angela 24.12

    Skating Skills (SS)
    Ashley 8.00
    Agnes 7.75
    Mirai 7.46
    Christina 7.04
    Gracie 6.93
    Courtney 6.57
    Caroline 6.54
    Angela 6.36
    Ashley C. 6.36
    Yasmin 6.32
    Hannah 6.25
    Samantha 6.21

    Transitions (TR)
    Ashley 7.86
    Agnes 7.25
    Mirai 7.07
    Christina 6.71
    Gracie 6.39
    Yasmin 6.32
    Hannah 6.32
    Ashley C. 6.07
    Caroline 6.07
    Courtney 5.96
    Samantha 5.93
    Angela 5.86

    Performance/Execution (PE)
    Ashley 8.43
    Agnes 7.68
    Mirai 7.57
    Christina 6.86
    Caroline 6.71
    Courtney 6.64
    Gracie 6.57
    Hannah 6.57
    Samantha 6.43
    Yasmin 6.39
    Ashley C. 6.50
    Angela 5.89

    Choreography (CH)
    Ashley 8.29
    Agnes 7.71
    Mirai 7.46
    Christina 7.07
    Gracie 7.71
    Caroline 6.79
    Yasmin 6.68
    Hannah 6.61
    Ashley C. 6.61
    Courtney 6.46
    Samantha 6.32
    Angela 6.18

    Interpretation (IN)
    Ashley 8.46
    Agnes 7.57
    Mirai 7.50
    Christina 7.07
    Caroline 6.75
    Ashley C. 6.61
    Gracie 6.57
    Hannah 6.54
    Yasmin 6.46
    Courtney 6.43
    Samantha 6.36
    Angela 5.86


    For all this talk about people getting dumped or boosted by PCS scores here, I'm not sure if I see it....
    Last edited by Mrs. P; 01-24-2013 at 11:57 PM.

  6. #396
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Mrs. P, Zawadski scored 10 points on her triple triple - she reversed them according to icenetwork.

    Opps, yes you are right. Will correct! Thanks.

  7. #397
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orange Cat View Post
    ... My heart actually breaks for Caroline. Not for the performance itself, which was lovely (and she looked so happy and relaxed), but after, when she heard her marks. Just- no.

    Thanks for posting these, though. It sucks not being able to access a live stream, so fast uploads and swift linkers are much appreciated.

    ETA: Thanks, IP, for the correction on the GP medal count. Clearly my memory isn't that great...
    This. She clearly was ready to break down. The URs and downgrades are the worst. I think the loop is the hardest one to actually tell you URed or DGed because your constantly turning and you get the preflight buffer. She probably thought she did really well only to be let down.

  8. #398
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    For all this talk about people getting dumped or boosted by PCS scores here, I'm not sure if I see it....
    You don't? Maybe because it's not as glaring if you break it down into tiny pieces. I think what happens is that small, consistent boosts add up. Was Ashley really that much better in every single section, or is she being boosted in SOME places (or boosted a little overall) because she's the frontrunner being coached by John Nicks?

    That said, the UR thing still counts too much. This problem isn't going to go away, because the audience is not going to clearly see UR much of the time. So the final score destroyed by UR is going to always make for an angry audience, unless they either make a fairer system for UR (like something between double and triple) or stick big red flags in the audience's face whenever it happens.
    Last edited by James R; 01-25-2013 at 12:01 AM.

  9. #399
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    yikes! Mirai skates last in the FS. Hope history doesn't repeat...

  10. #400
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by James R View Post
    You don't? Maybe because it's not as glaring if you break it down into tiny pieces. I think what happens is that small, consistent boosts add up. Was Ashley really that much better in every single section, or is she being boosted cause she's the frontrunner being coached by John Nicks?
    Honestly, she was the class of the field, so I think yes her scores are deserved. I mean Gracie Gold's PCS are the same as Hannah Miller's and not that far from Ashley Cain.

  11. #401
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    It's all a matter of interpretation of the skating and then of the judges' scoring, Mrs. P. Figure skating is after all a subjective sport. I don't care how it all breaks down re the numbers, but thanks for providing the stats which are always interesting, but yet don't necessarily always accurately reflect the actual skating, since again, fs is a subjective, and very political sport.

    The new judging system actually makes it easier for judges to place skaters kind of where they want them to be. PCS scores are generally massaged. Numbers can always turn out to look as if, "Well that seems right." Actually, I do see some dumping and some boosting in the PCS. Some of it, of course, ended up happening to lesser known young skaters who skated great early, but as a result did not catch a break.
    Last edited by Art&Sport; 01-25-2013 at 12:07 AM.

  12. #402
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    * Mirai* okay i am going to bed almost 5am UK time... don't say I don't love Mirai enough to stay this late for her... Sigh... oh Mirai!!

    Actually Orange Cat I agree this might not be a bad thing. She need to fight to earn her place if she is serious about Sochi in any case. She does have an uphill struggle for the gold... but at least less pressure off her.

    Lesson learnt: 3Lutz matters. Don't ever get complacent even on even your best elements - the level 2 spin thing is pretty appalling by her standard. Agnes deserve her 2nd place ranking with the highest TES of the day and highest BV. Actually I have noticed judges can sometimes reward those who are 'perceived' to be under marked in their SP and try to compensate them if they deliver (human tendencies?). So as long as Mirai bring her season best, and the crowd really rally behind her, gold is still not not out of the question! She has strong 2nd half jump content, so theoretically she is in a good position as any. The difference between her score and Agnes is less than 1 point.

    Thanks Mrs P for the stats as always. Interesting read, feel so sorry for Caroline!!

  13. #403
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    I feel awful for Caroline. TWELFTH? That's enough to make my heart bleed.

  14. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by Art&Sport View Post
    It's all a matter of interpretation of the skating and then of the judges' scoring, Mrs. P. Figure skating is after all a subjective sport. I don't care how it all breaks down re the numbers, but thanks for providing the stats which are always interesting, but yet don't necessarily always accurately reflect the actual skating, since again, fs is a subjective, and very political sport.

    The new judging system actually makes it easier for judges to place skaters kind of where they want them to be. PCS scores are generally massaged. Numbers can always turn out to look as if, "Well that seems right." Actually, I do see some dumping and some boosting in the PCS. Some of it, of course, ended up happening to skaters who skated great early, but as a result did not catch a break.
    Perhaps, but maybe I should clarify and say I don't see any blatant boost/dumping. I guess I don't have a problem with the placements to be honest.

  15. #405
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    Thanks for the PCS breakdown, Mrs P! Very helpful indeed. I think the PCS look pretty fair, there- nothing inflated, but it doesn't look like PCS lowballing occurred.

    I think that the Tech was chiefly involved in that.

    willdu, as a non-skater I never thought about the prerotation of the loop making it harder to tell if one is or isn't UR-ing or DG-ing. I just- although I knew Caroline's score before I watched her skate, when her mark was read out I was even more upset for her

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