2013 US Nationals Senior Ladies LP

[b-man]

That's the wrong way to look at it.
On a good night, her PCS was in the 62-63 range. On a crap night, her PCS improved by 3 points here. Should be 60 max.
On a good night, she didn't miss 2 jumps, didn't double foot the Sal. For the Sal, on a good night, she would get +1 GOE, say -1 GOE here, that's a difference of 1.50 at least. The flutz, another -3 or -4, the loop, another -3 or -4.

So, on a good night, she should get 128, on a bad night like last night, she should get 128 - 6 for PCS - 1.5 for Sal - 8 for the two falls, that leaves her around 113.5, not 121.

What kind of math are you using to calculate her scores on a bad night to come out with 121?

Agree Flattfan, I thought her score was padded 5-10 points. you have quantified it more accurately and I like your methodology.

[ks777]

Unfortunately, I think Hicks' SKATING (in between the jumps) makes Tonya Harding's skating look artistic, and that's really saying something. While Gracie has a ways to go in order to be in that top group on the PCS side, she at least makes an attempt to pay attention to her music. My husband, who's a confirmed skating hater went "ew" when he saw both of Hicks' program and went back to his game of spider solitaire.

But Hicks has the jumps! That's the hardest part. She can be more artistic with time and training. With a better choreographer and costume change(her costume made her thigh look so huge), she would be much more artistic.

[FlattFan]

I think Hicks can be developed into something even more impressive than Gracie. Both should get 55 PCS MAX now. Gracie attempted, but she didn't really do anything to show she can listen to her music. Her face still looked like she was concentrating on the next element. Gracie was impressive in the jumps department. I said last year, and I'm saying it again, Gracie's packaging is all wrong. She isn't going to be a factor even if she is perfect. The likes of Mao, Yuna, and Carolina will bury her with just 4 clean triples. And Gracie has some nerve issue to boot. Caro can score 70+ on PCS internationally. Gracie at best is going to be in the mid 50. Non-factor.

Hicks bothered me with her mouth opened the entire time. She was so wild out there. And she rushed everything.

Between the two, Hicks seems to be handling pressure better. Hicks has the jumps. Just package her right, and she should be battling for bronze soon enough while waiting for Caro and Yuna to retire.

[Blades of Passion]

Wow, I had no idea that Ashley's winning was irritating to some people. Gracie had a TERRIBLE SP and was VERY far behind Ashley points-wise. I see the result not so much as Ashley being "propped up" as it is that Gracie just had too much ground to make up after the SP. After all, the winning margin was only 2.27, so it's not as though Ashley made those mistakes and still won by a landslide. It was CLOSE! The bottom line is that Ashley did enough in the SP relative to Gracie to maintain the lead over her.

This isn't accurate.

The amount of mistakes Gracie had over the entire course of the competition was falling on a jump and turning a double axel into a single.

The amount of mistakes Ashley had over the entire course of the competition was falling twice, turning two triples into doubles, leaving out a combination jump, and somewhat double-footing a jump.

So that's 2 mistakes for Gracie in this competition and 6 mistakes for Ashley.

Think about it.

[Orange Cat]

At least the USFSA is sending her to 4CC. Hopefully she'll pull something spectacular from her back pocket and set the ball rolling for next season.

This makes me very happy. Christina has been performing really well this season and so I was really rather upset to see her... lowballed at nationals this year. But YAY that she is going to 4CC

[samson]

Finally saw the top 8 ladies and then some! Hmmmmm Gracie def had the skate of the night, but Caroline Zhang was really close behind her IMHO. I think it's the best I've ever seen Zhang skate and I would have had her second in the free skate. Honestly. Though she wasn't the fastest, those final moments in her free were dazzling, and that inside/outside spiral... SO GOOD. And so fitting that a skater trained by Karen Kwan would do that move. There was a passion and strength in her skating I have never seen before. I also think that's the best dress she's ever worn.

I agree that Christina Gao was robbed of a medal. She was cleaner than Agnes, and her quality is so superior to Courtney. Unfortunately that pesky flying sit spin did her in, in both skates and gave the judges the breathing room they needed to keep her off the podium. I bet it messed with her PCS too in the free because that was the last thing we saw and it just was such a low impact. BTW her styling and costume was perfection. She looked so mature and S T U N N I N G.

Which triples did Ashley turn into doubles? Are you talking about not doing a 3f/3toe in the sp and a 2a/3toe in the free? She wasn't planning either at nationals so that does not count as a mistake.

Mirai was also really great. Still really sad she was scored so low, but I still watch it and feel she's on the right track. To me, she's demonstrated her ability to grow and learn from adversity and not let it stop her. If only she hadn't gotten the flu... UGH

[Blades of Passion]

Zhang's performance was empty. Seriously nothing between the elements and the elements themselves were not remarkable for the most part, aside from the wonderful spiral. Her jumps had more snap last year and even her formerly legendary Layback was greatly diminished here...only Level 3 and only deserving of +1 GOE. Compare her LP at this Nationals to what she did at 4CC last season:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWwHKPNfYj8

Which triples did Ashley turn into doubles? Are you talking about not doing a 3f/3toe in the sp and a 2a/3toe in the free? She wasn't planning either at nationals so that does not count as a mistake.

Yes it does count as a "mistake". Not doing something means you are losing points. It doesn't matter if you're planning it or not, the fact is you're losing a competitive element. Even WITH those Triples, if did them, Ashley still has less jump content than Gracie. Obviously jumps aren't everything but Ashley leaving those jumps out is a big loss in points.

Gracie made 2 mistakes. Ashley made 6. I do not feel Ashley is such a wonderful skater or gave such wonderful performances that she had a 4-mistake buffer over someone who already had an advantage in jump content.

[PolymerBob]

Gracie made 2 mistakes. Ashley made 6. I do not feel Ashley is such a wonderful skater or gave such wonderful performances that she had a 4-mistake buffer over someone who already had an advantage in jump content.

But you forget, U.S. judges carry points over from the Grand Prix.

[ImaginaryPogue]

This isn't accurate.

The amount of mistakes Gracie had over the entire course of the competition was falling on a jump and turning a double axel into a single.

The amount of mistakes Ashley had over the entire course of the competition was falling twice, turning two triples into doubles, leaving out a combination jump, and somewhat double-footing a jump.

So that's 2 mistakes for Gracie in this competition and 6 mistakes for Ashley.

Think about it.

Of course, singling an axel in the short program is arguably more brutal than "somewhat double footing a jump." I'd argue that it's almost two errors.

That said, Tony Wheeler of Flutzing Around marked the competition and had Gold beating Wagner

[leafygreens]

Wow, wow, wow. That was UGLY!

In the end, Wagner "defended" her title, but she hardly did so in convincing fashion. I have a hard time saying she was gifted the win, though- because you have to consider the SP as well. Wagner did what she had to do, while Gold had a fall AND a singled axel. in fact, some people were even saying Gold's SP score was generous...

The more accurate thing to say is that Wagner backed into the win - or got TREMENDOUSLY lucky that the two skaters that could have easily passed her also failed to seize the moment. Only Gold did - but then, she was 13 points back in the short, and at the end of the day it was just a WEE BIT too much ground to cover.

That is true, but what is so wrong with that? Ashley's win is not the first time or the last time that the winner was lackluster but did just enough because the losers failed to seize the moment. She's our national champion. People need to deal with it.

The blowhard-ing is really getting annoying. "There's a problem with 6.0, there's a problem with IJS, this never would have happened during ____ era, skating is no longer a sport, the fans are turned off, the fans will never watch skating again, the fans only want to see jumping, we have to do what the fans want or the USFS will lose money, the advertisers will lose money, the only thing that matters is not falling, falling is the worst thing you can do, it is worse than UR's or lack of skating skills, therefore the IJS system needs to be amended, so-and-so has to have a 3/3 or she will never be able to compete on the world stage, the sport is not progressing because nobody has landed a quint in 100 years, etc etc etc etc"

As for the rest, I prefer Mirai to Ashley, but Mirai's performance deserved those scores. It's annoying to read people say "Skater X fell once and came 99743th whereas Skater Y fell three times and won." It doesn't work like that. Perhaps it's time for a skating version of the tennis "Hawkeye", so audiences can be shown underrotations. Or better commentators pointing them out.

I think the commentating on NBC does an ok job of showing that. Of course, they only have time to show 2 jumps in slow-mo. But when it's UR'd they point it out. If people don't get that UR's are also important, then they are extremely low-information viewers (morons). You can only be beat over the head with it so many times.

Letting fans dictate the direction of skating and scoring because fans think that falls are the only thing that matters, has about as much credibility as someone at a public session asking if I'm going to the Olympics because I have white skates, or asking if I can do the "iron lotus" or a "camel toe". These people's opinions DO NOT matter.

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yes it does count as a "mistake". Not doing something means you are losing points. It doesn't matter if you're planning it or not, the fact is you're losing a competitive element.

Huh? So did everyone make a mistake by not doing a quad? How can not doing something you don't plan be a mistake? I'm with you that Ashley made 4 mistakes but to count elements that were never planned here as mistakes just seems like a way for you to knock Ashley.

[rocketry]

Ashley isn't going for the 2a-3t?

I don't think that they're trying to knock Ashley but point out how it affected her score. With those doubled jumps, Ashley's SP + FS base value is 81.67 vs. 88.01 for Gracie, meaning that with her content, she had less room to make mistakes if she wants an equal technical score not counting GoEs.

[Mathman]

Gracie lost about 7 points on the two errors in the short program, 4.2 points on the fall and UR in the combination and 2,8 for the 1A. With 7 more points she would have been 4th behind Mirai in the SP. But probably higher because her PCS would have gone up with a clean sjate.

Ashley lost about 3.10 for the fall on the Lutz, 5.87 for the fall on the loop combo, 0.1 points for the double-footed flip , and if you want to call scaling down the 2A+2T an "error," she left 2.6 point on the table there. Total 11.61, if you count it that way.

So, I don't know what all that means, but anyway...

[Mathman]

The blowhard-ing is really getting annoying. "... the fans are turned off...USFS will lose money...the advertisers will lose money,...low-information viewers (morons)....These people's opinions DO NOT matter."

I don't think that the people in the ISU and USFS who must deal with balance sheets and annual budgets agree with this view. Or maybe they do.

Look at it this way. (a) You offer a product to the public. (b) They find it unsatisfactory. (c) You dismiss them as morons and go on producing more of the same.

An unusual business model.

[skatel80]

This was ceraintly an interesting event! I feel terrible for mirai and like others slightly perplexed by ashleys result, not going to get into that.....
gracie gold was incredible in the free skate, you could see her nerves on her face especially at the beginning, but that is understandable and she got the job done in spectacular fashion!
Courtney is an absolute firecracker, she jumps so high!!! her jumps are so beautiful, I enjoyed her skating even if she was a bit rough around the edges. I have never seen a skater come back from such an awful injury so well, I csn only imagine the work she put in to be skating like this now...wow!
Hamnnah miller is charming and samantha cesario is a really beautiful skater. Angela wang will be a formiddable force when she puts it all together, her jump technique makes jumping look so easy!
I was never a fan of Caroline Zhang as a young phenom, but in this event she made me a fan, she is such a fighter! that long program was such a triumh for her especially after the appalling scores in the short!
WTG Ladies