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Thread: 2013 US Nationals Senior Ladies LP

  1. #556
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    Quote Originally Posted by leafygreens View Post
    Letting fans dictate the direction of skating and scoring because fans think that falls are the only thing that matters, has about as much credibility as someone at a public session asking if I'm going to the Olympics because I have white skates, or asking if I can do the "iron lotus" or a "camel toe". These people's opinions DO NOT matter.


    These fans would probably assign the highest base value to "camel toe" which would then be the most popular thing to do!

    For those who blame COP for Gracie finishing behind Ashley, would Gracie be contending for a medal under 6.0, coming into FS with a 9th SP placement?

  2. #557
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    And gracie was clean, so?
    The point is this, even Yuna Kim's PCS took a big hit when she was a mess. Wagner's PCS actually improved by 3 points. What's the point? That's the point.

    Sorry to break it to you, but if you are overscored by 5 points, and someone else is overscored by 10 points, that will make a difference. Do you understand that? Should I break it down further?
    You don't need to. Just continue hating all the skaters as usual and talking about how terrible they all are.

  3. #558
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    I made the following spread sheet which keeps the TES and SP scores as is and adds in the best ISU PCS the ladies got this year, with the exception of Ashley, for whom I used her GPF two fall PCS, and Yasmin, for whom I guessed she should be about the same as Courtney Hicks.
    The result for my fake ISU competition for these girls is Ashley first, Gracie second, Christina third or fourth, since it is very, very close with Zawadzki-I could go with that.

    SP BV TES falls PCS ISU Adj score = TES+ISUPCS+SP
    0.00
    zhang 49.99 53.72 58.28 0 43.49 CoR 151.76
    miller 54.47 54.23 55.01 0 47.32 croatia 156.80
    wang 52.06 57.17 59.71 1 49.90 placid jgp 161.67
    cesario 55.74 53.53 58.59 0 47.49 austria 161.82
    siraj 57.88 56.97 60.24 0 make her = 50.54 ? 168.66
    nagasu 64.39 49.44 49.80 1 59.14 NHK 173.33
    Hicks 59.72 55.80 63.62 0 hicks 50.54 placid jgp 173.88
    Zawadzki 65.31 49.69 54.18 1 55.53 CoR 175.02
    gao 58.74 54.87 59.30 0 57.25 SkAm 175.29
    Gold 54.08 60.31 71.14 58.10 CoR 183.32
    Wagner 67.57 54.03 57.45 2 62.56 GPF 187.58

    Now you oculd argue that Ashley was worse than at the GPF and Gracie was better than at CoR, where she didn't skate perfectly, and you could jigger the answers around to come out a tie or Gracie a hair ahead, if you wanted to work at it, but you really cannot make a case for any of the other girls getting second place overall except Gracie, even if you drop Gracie's SP score a couple points.

    Before you say, well Nagasu should have been higher, no way should her PCS have been what they were at NHK, where she won a medal.

    So the only one that wuzrobbed, IMO, would be Christina, and she should have been third or fourth, not fifth, and get to go to 4CC's, since their adjusted scores are very, very close.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 01-28-2013 at 04:57 PM.

  4. #559
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    Quote Originally Posted by skatingfan4ever View Post

    I do feel bad for Mirai because before the marks I was hoping she would get 3rd. But, I can see why she wasn't on the podium. Her program was lifeless, just a list of elements that were barely gotten through. By Mirai's recent standards, however, it was a very good skate. Her lower technical content and her URs are what kills her. She has to really fight to rotate her jumps, whereas Zawadski's jumps look effortless when she executes them as planned. NBC should not have zoomed in on Mirai in the first moments of her disappointment. Of course she was going to react strongly since she always wears her emotions on her sleeve, but the viewing audience doesn't need to see it up close like that.
    Mirai isn't a 7th place skater, but sadly for her, that bad programme coincided with a number of skaters, whom I would have deemed inferior to her (Hicks included), bringing out their A game and skating their best ever. The URs cost her a place on the podium, but it was the surprising success of the others that cast her down further.

    Perhaps it will be a lesson to her. I'm happy she's finally started working harder this year, but time has marched on without her. A skater's career is so short, and there's always the risk you will lose an entire year's worth of work, lose one of the very few opportunities you have in your career to get on the world team, due to a badly-timed week's worth of flu. So you have to make all the other years count, and...I don't feel Mirai has. I loved her skating before, but the last two years it's been such a disappointment. Given all the younger skaters suddenly coming up and doing well, things aren't looking good for her Sochi hopes.

  5. #560
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post


    These fans would probably assign the highest base value to "camel toe" which would then be the most popular thing to do!
    Especially some of the extended pairs lifts that we saw over the weekend.

    For those who blame COP for Gracie finishing behind Ashley, would Gracie be contending for a medal under 6.0, coming into FS with a 9th SP placement?
    Factored placements turn out like this:

    Ashley 5
    Courtney Hicks 10
    Gracie Gold 11
    Christina Gao 13
    Yasmin Siraj 16 (+tie-break)
    Agnes Zawadski 16
    Samantha Cesario 19
    Mirai Nagasu 25
    Angela Wang 26
    Hannah Miller 28
    Caroline Zhang 30

    Not too different. The main beneficiary of 6.0 is Hicks and the main beneficiary of CoP is Zawadski.

    This assumes, however, that the placements would be the same for each segment separately, which is doubtful.

    But the main thing is -- think outside the box. Are 6.0 and CoP the only two possible scoring methods that we can come up with? It is not necessarily a vote of confidence in the CoP to say that 6.0 was bad, too. (My solution -- consider the SP to be a separate event, with its own champion. Then start afresh with the free skating. For the Olympics, omit the short program altogether.)

  6. #561
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    I made the following spread sheet which keeps the TES and SP scores as is and adds in the best ISU PCS the ladies got this year...


    So the only one that wuzrobbed, IMO, would be Christina....
    I don't think so. Her performance at Skate America was better than her performance at Nationals, IMO. The PCS for her Nationals performance should not match her marks from Skate America.

  7. #562
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    But Ashley didn't get any downgrade calls on her two falls. And her GOE on the first 3F combo is quite dubious.

  8. #563
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    Have the US women always worn so much sparkles at Nationals? I have watched the US Nationals before but don't remember one after another having so many sparkles on their dresses. Personally i think it looks overdone. The men were far more unique all having different styles and moves. One skater that always sparkles from inside out ( don't mean the dress this time) is Ashley Wagner, even with the mistakes she has this presence on ice, like she commands you to watch. In a way she is similar to Kaetlyn Osmond who grabs your attention. Gracie Gold is amazing. I think she can improve artistically in the way she relates to the audience etc but she had World Champion jumps. Felt sorry for Mirai , hope she comes back strong next year. Enjoyed watch Christina Gao alot more than the 3rd and 4th place winners.

  9. #564
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    If Ashley got the downgrades, conceivably Gracie wins. And Gracie with a flawed program at CoR as her highest international PCS would perhaps have gotten a point or two more for her US Nats program, even more so if the program was skated at SkAm than CoR

  10. #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    But Ashley didn't get any downgrade calls on her two falls. And her GOE on the first 3F combo is quite dubious.
    So who do you feel should have won? You have been down on Gracie for having too high PCS, Ashley for winning with a flawed program. So who should have won?

  11. #566
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImaginaryPogue View Post
    Of course, singling an axel in the short program is arguably more brutal than "somewhat double footing a jump." I'd argue that it's almost two errors.
    Singling the axel in the SP is a loss of an extra .6 points in comparison to singling the axel in the LP (because of mandatory -3 GOE). It's not THAT much more of an extra deduction.

    Ashley left an entire 2Axel out of her LP because of the fall on the 3Loop that it was supposed to be in sequence with. She lost 2.9 points there in base value. Singling the axel in the SP is essentially a point loss of 2.8 in base value. So those two mistakes are very comparable.

    Ashley double-footing the Salchow is definitely a smaller deduction, I supposed it should be counted as "half" a mistake. However, Ashley actually also slightly double-footed her second 3Flip. She also definitely underrotated her last 2Toe on the opening jump combination (but wasn't called for it). So...combine all those little things together and we can count it as a "full" mistake.

    2 mistakes for Gracie, 6 for Ashley.

  12. #567
    and... World Peace! Tonichelle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by figuristka View Post
    Have the US women always worn so much sparkles at Nationals? I have watched the US Nationals before but don't remember one after another having so many sparkles on their dresses. Personally i think it looks overdone. The men were far more unique all having different styles and moves. One skater that always sparkles from inside out ( don't mean the dress this time) is Ashley Wagner, even with the mistakes she has this presence on ice, like she commands you to watch. In a way she is similar to Kaetlyn Osmond who grabs your attention. Gracie Gold is amazing. I think she can improve artistically in the way she relates to the audience etc but she had World Champion jumps. Felt sorry for Mirai , hope she comes back strong next year. Enjoyed watch Christina Gao alot more than the 3rd and 4th place winners.
    um, yes sparkles have always been key

    I think the reason they are more noticable is because of the picture quality and the high saturation they use to shoot the dang thing. Everything is more bright and vibrant. Even 10 years ago "film" was much different, more muted.

  13. #568
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkateFiguring View Post
    For those who blame COP for Gracie finishing behind Ashley, would Gracie be contending for a medal under 6.0, coming into FS with a 9th SP placement?
    Let me try that again. Scoring under 6.0 rules, let's suppose the placements in the SP to be the same. In the LP, Ashley lands three triple jumps, falling twice. Under 6.0 falling was more heavily penalized, and even a "minor error" like two-footed landing on the flip meant that the jump was not "ratified." Ashley ranks behind Hicks (a 6-triple performance with a 3F+3T), and behind Gao (6 clean triples -- her only mistake was on a spin, which was no so important in 6.0), And possibly behind Siraj (6 triples in a fine program) and Cesario (6 triples in a fine program).

    Let's put Ashley fifth. Then with factored placement we have:

    1. Hicks 8
    2. Gold 11 (+tie-break)
    3. Goa 11 (with 2nd tie-break)
    4. Wagner 11

    Tossing CoP, Courtney Hicks is the new champion, Courtney and Gracie go to worlds, Courtney, Gracie and Christina go to Four Cintinents, and Ashley and Jeremy Abbott begin preparing for next year.
    Last edited by Mathman; 01-28-2013 at 07:39 PM.

  14. #569
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    lol... anyone watching the new skating podcast? Sums up what everyone is saying about the ladies event.

  15. #570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    So who do you feel should have won? You have been down on Gracie for having too high PCS, Ashley for winning with a flawed program. So who should have won?
    I would have Gracie at about 125 and Ashley at about 110.
    Gracie would have won. One has nothing to do with the other.

    If Courtney is less wild, I would have her above Ashley as well.
    If Christina didn't mess up her spin in the SP, I would have her above Ashley as well.

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