But, about the topic of this thread, I have to say that I'm really happy with Liza and Adelina winning medals, they skated their best and they had really good results, consdiering that this was their first trip to Euros!
you say that obviously she planned the doubles and no 3-3? well you are wrong! she is planning the 3f3t in her program and she didn't do that in zagreb because she didn't land the flip very well slowing her speed to much to attach the 3t...as for the double salchow well she was really tired as she said and really didn't have strenght in her legs....don't forget that if for most of the skater this is middle season, for her it's the beginning!
plus I wasn't say that with the performance of saturday she should win over kim...I was saying if both skate clean with all the triples they plans the competition would be close...and a personally give a slightly edge to carolina for the reason I explained in my previous post
Kostner is skating beautifully but she's downgraded a lot of content...She's adding it in, but its still been a long time since she's actually DONE a 3flip/3toe in competition.
Kim still reels out that 3lutz/3toe like its nothing- in competition... And has never really downgraded content. Which I think gives Kim frankly a mental advantage. I think downgrading content was the right thing for Kostner to do for her own mental skating. But I also respect Kim a lot for the fact that really she never downgrades her content (she doesn't do the 3loop because its too inconsistent).. She always went for the 3lutz/3toe, double axel/3toe-every competition.
And its a mental advantage because it becomes second nature...
Last edited by bekalc; 01-28-2013 at 08:14 PM.
First, carolina is almost 26 and she has been around for eleven years...kim is 22 and she did 5 years of competition more or less and all of them in her right momentum.
Carolina has defenitly downgraded her content but just because of her injury and, let's be honest she is not that young anymore ...not the content ON paper is higher even than yuna's (on paper...we don't know how she will do at worlds but we don't know about yuna either). carolina plans 7 triples while yuna 6 and taking out jumps carolina has a minimal edge over kim in the other elements (they are close on spins but carolina' s step seq is something that yuna cannot match).
still I' m talking about if they both skate clean and I think that both girls have the same possibility to do it. Maybe yuna is strongest psycologically but she has been away from the international scenario for two years and her next big competition will be worlds while carolina has already faced a tought competition and has proved that mentally she is in the game!
Carolina plans 7-triple program?! Oh my! But so do many other ladies. And I hear Mao Asada plans 3A and 3Lo+3Lo in the short, and she plans a 7-triple program with TWO 3Axels in the long.
Let's talk about execution and not "plans", please. A clean Carolina with seven triples might beat a clean Yuna (assuming the deficit in the short is not too big), but that's equivalent to saying an 8-triple Mao with two triple Axels will beat Yuna, or that a lady with a quad and seven triples will beat a clean Yuna, etc. In other words, purely speculative, as it's never happened. If you look at actual execution, this season Carolina has gotten a 140+ LP at Nationals, as did Yuna. Both had six triples in the LP. They both did at least one clean SP, with Yuna's scoring 70+. If both are clean, the scores will be really close.
If both are clean in the SP, Yuna will lead by 3 - 5 points in the SP. If both are clean the LP, Caro has potentially a higher total score, but the gap is narrowed by Yuna's small PCS lead in the long. (I'm not saying that's how it should be, but I expect a clean Yuna would garner higher PCS than a clean Carolina from ISU judges.) So overall it would be very close, just because Yuna's lead from the SP and then her lead in PCS in the LP would be enough to make Caro's extra triple lead by TES a toss-up.
I think a rational Kostner fan would agree that if both are clean:
Yuna SP Score > Carolina SP Score
Yuna 6-triple LP Score < Carolina 7-triple LP Score
Would Carolina's LP score be enough to cover the deficit in the SP? I don't think that can be definitively answered. It will depend highly on the composition of the judging panel (random in other words).
with all respect to Kim, Karo and the rest I DOUBT there's going to be a non-Russian champ in Sochi. It's Adel, Liza or Julia. Their PCS are going to rise incredibly within this and next season. They may lose on PCS some points and will surely beat the rest of the field on GOE in TES. If the girls are clean, they'll be in top 6 in this Worlds. Whether they deserve it or not... I think they do, there used to be young US champs why not Russian ones? I'd prefer Liza)))
I still have my money on Kim currently but there are finally some young ladies emerging who can make the competition much more interesting. Besides the Russian ladies, there's Gracie Gold and Osmond who are rapidly improving and of course, Ashley Wagner, who posted some big scores this season and is on her way up. I don't think Sochi is going to be all about the Russian ladies( skating at home might have it's advantage but also adds huge pressure that must be handled by a bunch of 17 year old girls).
I agree that yuna has an edge over carolina in the short technically. If they skate clean I would give to caro higher PCS because of the composition of the program but I'm sure judges won't do that so I have yuna over caro in that segment!
Caro probably will be around 70 in the SP if she's clean. 3T3T, 3Loop, 2A.
Yuna will be around 73 in the SP if she's clean. 3Lz3T, 3Flip, 2A.
She will gain 2+ points for the Lutz-Toe differential to Caro, but lose some of it back to the step sequence. They are above average spinners. Finally standing for TES would be roughly 1+ points advantage to Kim.
As an Olympic Gold medalist, she will have 1+ points PCS advantage over Caro (I disagree here, but that's how it will go down)
In the long program
Kim is doing 2 Lutzs, 1 Flip, 1 Toe, 2 Sals, 2 2As.
Caro is doing 1 Lutz, 1 Flip, 1 Loop, 2 Toes, 2 Sals, 2 2As.
Jump differential is about 3+ points advantage for Caro. Her steps will increase that advantage to 4+ points.
If Caro indeed goes clean, her PCS will be huge. I suspect she will have higher PCS than Kim in this scenario, which will hand her the win.
In the unlikely case where she doesn't, she would be 1-2 points below Kim.
Factoring the deficit in the SP, the deficit in PCS in the LP, and her TES advantage in the LP, Caro and Kim will be very very close. Can really go either way.
Mao will have to have 3As to keep up with these two.
So Kim can theoretically do: 3Lutz/3Toe, DA/3Toe; 3Flip, 3Salchow, 3Flip/2Toe/2Loop and maybe another Double Axel in her LP and she'll be fine.
Composition also matters. Where are the jumps in the program? Counting and adding points only tells half the story, since jumps in the back end of the program are worth 10% more. You basically have to look at the program as it's laid out just to add up the jump points.
Also, on most Jumps Kim is likely to out-GOE Kostner, because her jumps are bigger and her landings, especially on the harder jumps (Lutz/Flip) tend to be better. Kostner telegraphs both her flip and her Lutz. That is why Kim tends to score higher on PCS. Her transitions into and out of her jumps are almost always better than Kostner's. Kostner is only really good at working into and out of the Loop jump (which seems to be her best jump). This affects both the TES as well as the PCS score in both the SP and the FS.
PCS is about more than opinion. There are technical reasons why Kim scores such high PCS over skaters like Asada and Kostner, and they are easy to see if you open your eyes up and see what's going on in the program.
Last edited by SkateNater; 01-29-2013 at 07:43 PM.
And again, you have to take into count the distribution of elements and the judges WILL take into count the difficulty of the jumps Kim is skating into at the speeds she skates and the steps she takes into those jumps.
Also, you forgot one Triple Toe for Kim Yuna, so her base score is higher than Kostner's. In the program she's doing at Worlds I'm more than sure she's shooting for a 3L/3TL combo in addition to a 2A/3TL combination.
She didn't need that for the competitions she's done so far, since she could fall five times and still win against those skaters. No one was trying to peak that early in the season.
Also, by default, you will earn more GOE when you do more triples. Kim can only do 6.
I can guarantee Kim will lose if Kim add a triple toe into her current program.Also, you forgot one Triple Toe for Kim Yuna, so her base score is higher than Kostner's. In the program she's doing at Worlds I'm more than sure she's shooting for a 3L/3TL combo in addition to a 2A/3TL combination.