4CCs Predictions

[b-man]

Gao is better off pursuing Harvard full time seriously - she never made the podium at U.S. Nationals, it's simply absurd to think she will suddenly be the 1st runner up at 4CC in a competition that is a lot stiffer than the U.S. Nationals.

I agree that Gao is unlikely to finish 1st runner up at 4CC, but I don't agree that the competition is a lot stiffer. Sure, Mao, Osmond, and Suzuki, if she is skating well, are top notch, but when you get past those 3, the competition for Gold, Gao, etc isn't any tougher than US Nationals. US Nats are probably deeper in the 6-10 placements than 4CC. Take one of my favorites, C.Zhang as an example. Fourth last year at US Nats, yet with a bronze at 4CC.

[vera01]

Ladies
1.Mao Asada:Becuase it's going to be held in her home country, she's not going to lose her gold unless she makes major mistakes.
2.Gracie Gold:Another silver for Gracie. I realized that ever since Jr.Worlds 2012, she always gets silver medal if she manages to get any.
3.Kaetlyn Osmond:She is really consistent so far.
4.Suzuki Akiko:Unless she manages to do either NHK/GPF performance again, she won't be on the podium.

Ice Dance
Well, I hope V/M wins, but they haven't been doing well with their FD.

[koatcue]

Gracie
Mao
Kaetlyn

[ImaginaryPogue]

The score seems a tad high for a FS with 3 clean triples:
115.89 57.28 59.61 7.32 7.25 7.61 7.46 7.61 1.00 3fe+2t, 3ze↓, 2a+3t, 3s, 3f, 3t-so, 2a+2t+2t

Eh, people have scored higher with less.

[chuckm]

Eh, people have scored higher with less.

Yes, like reigning World Champion and multiple World medalwinner Carolina Kostner, and reigning Olympic silver medalwinner and two-time World Champion Mao Asada.

[Ziggy]

The score seems a tad high for a FS with 3 clean triples:
115.89 57.28 59.61 7.32 7.25 7.61 7.46 7.61 1.00 3fe+2t, 3ze↓, 2a+3t, 3s, 3f, 3t-so, 2a+2t+2t

But what exactly was marked too high? It's not fair to throw out accusations if you can't back them up.

RIHANNA ILLUMINATI PRINCESS, etc. :P

[prettykeys]

Ladies:
1) Asada
2) Osmond
3) Gold or Murakami

Men:
1) Hanyu
2) Takahashi
3) Aaron

I'm really bummed that Murakami hasn't been able to skate her programs to their potential because the programs themselves are lovely this year, particularly her short. I think many were surprised to see her in 2nd (and Alena in 1st, at that) after the SP, but I wasn't surprised to see her. She's always been a favourite of mine.

Yes, I adore Murakami's SP this year and very much like her FS. I just think that unfortunately, even if she lands all her jumps she will get some underrotations (and an edge call on her Lutz.) I'm really pulling for her to have a good showing, though.

[pangtongfan]

The competition is in Japan and there are four Asian judges (CHN, JPN, TPE, KOR). I don't expect to see more than one non-Asian skater on the Men's and Ladies podiums.

MEN
1. Hanyu or Takahashi
2. Takahashi or Hanyu
3. Aaron
4. Han Yan
5. Miner
6. Mura


LADIES
1. Mao
2. Gao
3. Li
4. Gold
5. Murakami
6. Osmond

PAIRS
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
3. Castelli/Shnapir
4. Scimeca/Knierim
5. Peng/Zhang
6. Lawrence/Swiegers

DANCE
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Shibutanis
4. Chock/Bates
5. Gilles/Poirier
6. Reeds

Why do you have Gao doing so well? She skated virtually perfectly at Nationals (one error on a spin in the short, and a much smaller error on a spin in the long) and still was beaten by Wagner who skated awful, Gold who had an awful short, Zawadzki who fell in the short and fell apart in the long, and young Hicks. I honestly think she wil do well to match her 5th place from Nationals in this field.

[pitterpatter]

Alright, let's do this!

Men
Since I have nothing else to go on and a half baked theory is better than tossing a coin, I'm going to go and say that they're taking turns at first place like civilized gentlemen. Therefore...

1. Takahashi
2. Hanyu
3. Miner
4. Song
5. Reynolds

Ladies
Hope Akiko's not actually going through a slump like some are suggesting

1. Asada
2. Osmond
3. Suzuki
4. Gold
5. Murakami

Pairs
Predicting a Cdn sweep here just because its not THAT far fetched in this scenario

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
3. Lawrence/Swiegers
4. Peng/Zhang
5. Castelli/Shnapir

Dance
There's something wonky going on with the technical stuff of V/M's FD, and the changes they've made so far haven't been working. Don't know if they'll get the kinks out in time for 4CCs, but I doubt it'd be as polished as D/W's FD at this point either way.

1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Shibutani/Shibutani
4. Chock/Bates
5. Gilles/Poirier

[merrywidow]

Men:
1-Hanyu
2-Takahashi
3-Aaron
4-Miner

Ladies:
1-Asada
2-Gold
3-Suzuki
4-Zawadski

Pairs:
A Canadian sweep

Dance:
1-Davis & White
2-Virtue & Moir
3-Chock & Bates
4-Shibutanis

[Skater Boy]

Ladies
1.Mao Asada:Becuase it's going to be held in her home country, she's not going to lose her gold unless she makes major mistakes.
2.Gracie Gold:Another silver for Gracie. I realized that ever since Jr.Worlds 2012, she always gets silver medal if she manages to get any.
3.Kaetlyn Osmond:She is really consistent so far.
4.Suzuki Akiko:Unless she manages to do either NHK/GPF performance again, she won't be on the podium.

Ice Dance
Well, I hope V/M wins, but they haven't been doing well with their FD.

V and M have had more problems with their short and their lifts in the FD - it isn't looking good either way for them. The bronze is open in dance after D and W and then V and M. THis is the Shibutanis chance to recliam their NA third status in the absence of W and P. If they get beaten by their American teammates it will be a huge blow - even bigger if Gilles and Poirier sneak past them - unlikely but you never kow.

[ForeverFish]

Why do you have Gao doing so well? She skated virtually perfectly at Nationals (one error on a spin in the short, and a much smaller error on a spin in the long) and still was beaten by Wagner who skated awful, Gold who had an awful short, Zawadzki who fell in the short and fell apart in the long, and young Hicks. I honestly think she wil do well to match her 5th place from Nationals in this field.

Not to mention this is Gao's first major test on the senior international stage. A top 6 finish would be stellar.

[silverlake22]

Gao could be one of those skaters who does better internationally versus nationally. Usually at Nationals, some skaters get big inflation in their PCS scores compared to internationally, and others get about the same. Christina's PCS at nationals were about the same from what she got on the GP, whereas someone like Agnes' or Gracie in the FS, got a significant PCS bump at Nationals from what they usually get internationally. So considering that I could see Gao doing well.

[blue_idealist]

Not to mention this is Gao's first major test on the senior international stage. A top 6 finish would be stellar.

Well, she was at the GP Final. I'd call that a major senior international.

[sask8]

Ice Dance:

Gold: Davis/White
Silver: Shib Sibs
Bronze: Virtue/Moir
4th: Chock/Bates
5th: Gilles/Poirier
6th: Reed Sibs

Shibutanis in silver place is obviously going out on a limb, but their programs have come such a long way since the beginning of the season, especially their FD. So part of this is wishful thinking and part of it is thinking they could really pull ahead of V/M if they keep improving incrementally (the stars align just right)

Surprise: Look at Silver


Pairs:
Gold: Duhamel/Radford
Silver: Castelli/Shnapir
Bronze: Cheng/Hao
4th: Scimeca/Knierim
5th: Moore-Towers/Mascovitch
6th: Zhang/Bartholomay

Yup, the Americans get three pairs skaters into the top 6...but easier to do when their are only 8 teams.

Surprise: C/S move up to gold and S/K move up to bronze


Men:
Gold: Takahashi
Silver: Hanyu
Bronze: Minor
4th: Aaron
5th: Ten
6th:Takahito

Takahashi and Hanyu rule this event. Minor gets the best of Aaron at this competition and perhaps is a sign of things to come in Men's US skating

Surprise: Aaron takes silver


Ladies:
Gold: Asada
Silver: Osmond
Bronze: Gao
4th: Gold
5th Murakami
6th: Suzuki

I hate putting Suzuki this low, so if she can regain her early season form, she'll move up to at least 3rd. Besides Suzuki, I think Gold really is the wild card hear. At US Nationals Gold stated (paraphrase) that she could come back from a poor SP to do a flawless FS and put up huge scores. I'm not quite sure that is the lesson to be learned, but will see if, and how, mentally prepared she is for 4CC. If she comes out on fire it'll be an interesting competition for silver and possibly even gold with Asada, Osmond, Gold, and Suzuki eying the top spot.

Surprise: Li Zijun, the Chinese upstart, has taken the last 2 1/2 months to really polish and refine her FS, takes bronze in the process.