4CCs Predictions

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

MEN
1. Hanyu
2. Takahashi
3. Miner
4. Mura
5. Reynolds

LADIES
1. Asada
2. Osmond
3. Suzuki
4. Gold
5. Murakami

PAIRS
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
3. Peng/Zhang
4. Castelli/Shnapir
5. Lawrence/Swiegers

DANCE
1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Chock/Bates
4. Gilles/Poirier
5. Shibutanis

I'm really curious about this point in the season. Many comparison skates, seeing how Osmond stacks up against Mao and a surging Gold. I think Mao will have to bring it against potentially flawless SP skates and hopefully strong freeskates from Gold and Osmond... I'm also really hoping Murakami has fixed her UR's, and guessing Suzuki's disasters last week were just a flash in the pan.

In the men's I think top 2 are certain but 3rd can be a number of guys (I'm not convinced Max Aaron is the real deal quite yet, so I don't have him in the top 5).

Pairs will be critical for D/R and MT/M to convince ISU judges that both are worthy of top 5 finishes at Worlds and even podium contention.

Dance will be interesting to see if V/M can close the gap on D/W, after the GPF, especially after a less-than-ideal FD at Canadians.

Safe to say this is potentially one of the most competitive 4CC in a while!

[FTnoona]

In the last 6 years, three 4CCs took place in Asia: 2008, 2010, 2011. In the Ladies event, of the 9 medalists, 6 were Asian and 2 were of Asian descent. Draw your own conclusions.

My conclusions would be that these ladies skated the best that night - I know silly me being so naive . Should Rochette have won instead of Mao in '08? Heck that was when Asada was landing 3x3s and 3A in her free and 3x3s in her short. In '10 did Dobbs with her weaker jump content deserved to be on the podium instead of Zhang who attempted a more difficult tech content even with her technique issues? In '11 should Rachael have medalled over Mirai? I can buy the judges preferring the home countries athlete conspiracy, but I just don't buy into this one.

[chuckm]

Well, wallylutz, you obviously have an anti-Gold bias, so of course from your point of view, anyone who doesn't predict Osmond to win every competition has an anti-Osmond bias.

Osmond is quite good but she has only two Senior international competitions on her resume, both with limited fields and both in the early fall. Now if she had had a clean SP and a clean 7-triple FS in both competitions, I might understand the Osmond hype. But she had only 4 clean triples in the Nebelhorn FS and only 3 clean triples in the SC FS. Her SP is consistently good, but her FS is consistently not quite so good.

I have my skepticism about Gold as well. I'd like to see more consistency from her, and better choreography. I'm hoping for a top 10 finish from Gold at Worlds, nothing more. Wisely, that is Osmond's goal for herself.

Incidentally, Gold has already competed against a field of top ladies at 2012 WTT, her first Senior international competition. She finished 5th out of 12 and beat both Leonova and Murakami.

[wallylutz]

Well, wallylutz, you obviously have an anti-Gold bias, so of course from your point of view, anyone who doesn't predict Osmond to win every competition has an anti-Osmond bias.

Not at all, then again hyperbole is never in short supply when you need them.

Osmond is quite good but she has only two Senior international competitions on her resume, both with limited fields and both in the early fall. Now if she had had a clean SP and a clean 7-triple FS in both competitions, I might understand the Osmond hype. But she had only 4 clean triples in the Nebelhorn FS and only 3 clean triples in the SC FS. Her SP is consistently good, but her FS is consistently not quite so good.

Actually, she had 4 clean Triples at SCI FS, let's please try to get the facts right at least : http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

Which woman has had flawless FS in every competition since the start of the season? Not Kim, not Asada, nor Kostner and forget about Wagner. Osmond managed once, Kim also once at her Nationals, that's already quite good as it shows they can do it. Everything considered, Osmond is largely regarded as one of the more consistent ladies this season. You said her senior competitions were limited, yet in those supposedly limited fields, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Suzuki and others failed to win. Osmond's track record in her two post GP competitions are quite positive : Total of 18 Triple jumps attempted, all 18 of them landed with only one Triple toe with negative GOE and one Triple Lutz getting a minor edge call. The only other error was a fall on Double Axel, which most agreed was just a fluke that is not worth mentioning. Sure, it's not a 7-triple FS but then a 7-triple FS is becoming so rare these days for ladies that it is pretty much an extinct animal for the most part. More importantly, when people talk about Osmond, it isn't because she is known as a jumper. Do a keyword search, you'll notice people talk about Osmond for her presence / energy, lack of nerves, transitions, maturity, passion and attack, and her consistency. That's what she is known for yet it is almost bizarre you decide to unilateraly define the standard of success solely by the number of Triple jumps completed in a competition - which btw, is not a good way to measure success. For one thing, just because X skater can land 7 triples in competition A doesn't mean she will repeat in competition B. Jumps are such high risk elements that seldom a skater can duplicate an exact same performance, jump-wise, from competition to competition. At the Canadian Nationals, there was also another lady who also completed 7 Triples and 3/3s in the FS, yet she only finished 3rd and no threads about her. It goes to show how flawed it is for you to define success solely by the number of jumps landed in a competition.

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Which woman has had flawless FS in every competition since the start of the season? Not Kim, not Asada, nor Kostner and forget about Wagner.

To be fair, I can't think of any skater who has had a flawless skate in every competition of the season, in any freeskating discipline this year. But of the ones you mentioned, Wagner had a flawless TEB discounting the flutz (http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf). Just sayin'.

[wallylutz]

To be fair, I can't think of any skater who has had a flawless skate in every competition of the season, in any freeskating discipline this year. But of the ones you mentioned, Wagner had a flawless TEB discounting the flutz (http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf). Just sayin'.

Thank you for pointing this out as it illustrates my point exactly. What Wagner showed is that she is not consistent. While it's almost impossible to be clean in every single FS, a consistent skater shouldn't go from clean skate to just landing 2 clean Triples in a subsequent competition. chuckm suggested given that Osmond did not deliver clean free in all her outings this year, therefore, he shouldn't be impressed with her consistency. But know that as a whole, Osmond's FS has been fairly consistent in that she will have mistakes but they remain at a respectable level despite the mistakes, as opposed to bombing like Wagner already did twice this year - once at GPF and then at U.S. Nationals.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Men
Hanyu and Takahashi are the obvious 1-2s, though I wouldn't wager to guess on the order. Worlds 2012, Takahashi beat Hanyu. NHK 2012, Hanyu beat Takahashi. GPF 2012/13, Takahashi beat Hanyu. Nationals 2012/13, Hanyu beat Takahashi. Hanyu has a better LP record in head to heads, but Takahashi is a madman on a mission. Part of me wants to analogize Takahashi and Hanyu to Nadal and Federer at the US Open 2010. Djokovic was improving, but no one was beating Nadal that year. Of course, Djokovic eventually overtook Nadal and has reigned supreme (as we all expect Hanyu to do soon), but this year, at this competition.... Takahashi. Hey, I did guess.

Bronze is a much tougher, much more interesting battle. Mura's more than able to post good numbers, Miner's done well in Japan, Reynolds will have his share of support, as will Aaron. Anyone's game. Further down, it'll be worthwhile to see if Song (capable of two quads and two 2As) makes up any ground from a disappointing year; who wins between Balde and Rogozine. When did Lam start skating for Hong Kong (he was at Canadian Nationals in 2011).

Darkhorse? Han Yan. Disappointing fall, but really watch out for this one.

Ladies
Asada will win.

It'll be interesting to see Suzuki and Osmond go head-to-head again, though. If the GPF is any indication, they'll be going for the exact same content. Triple toe, triple toe combination, solo flip, double axel. So it comes down to GOEs, spin and step levels, and of course - PCS. That said, I'm so not looking forward to the Osmond-hate-brigade, but I am definitely curious who wins here. Also curious about Gold - her base value will probably be the highest of all the competitors. Hope Kanako has a great skate - her LP is amazing. Hope that Kexin Zhang skates well as well - she's got some raw power and I missed her on the GP circuit. Hope Zijun Li skates well.

Pairs
1. D/R
2. Mt/M
3. Peng/Zhang - base value will do it here.

Not much to say though. Disappointing competition.

Dance
1. D/W
2. V/M
3. Don't know - C/B or the Shibs.

The gap between D/W and V/M will be quite telling for Worlds and if D/W will cruise to a title.

[chuckm]

Actually, she [Osmond] had 4 clean Triples at SCI FS, let's please try to get the facts right at least : http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

Look again.
She got edge calls on the 3f in combination (-0.20) and the 3z, which she fell on (-2.10).
She stepped out of the 3t (-1.30)

She only attempted 6 triples and got -GOE on three of them.
The clean triples were the 3t in combination with 2a, the 3s and the second 3f.

Which woman has had flawless FS in every competition since the start of the season? Not Kim, not Asada, nor Kostner and forget about Wagner. Osmond managed once, Kim also once at her Nationals, that's already quite good as it shows they can do it. Everything considered, Osmond is largely regarded as one of the more consistent ladies this season. You said her senior competitions were limited, yet in those supposedly limited fields, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Suzuki and others failed to win. Osmond's track record in her two post GP competitions are quite positive : Total of 18 Triple jumps attempted, all 18 of them landed with only one Triple toe with negative GOE and one Triple Lutz getting a minor edge call. The only other error was a fall on Double Axel, which most agreed was just a fluke that is not worth mentioning.

Sorry again, but I was talking about INTERNATIONAL competition. National competitions are unreliable, because many times domestic tech teams ignore edge calls and URs and judges award high GOE for imperfect elements that would get -GOE from ISU judges, and PCS scores are stratospheric. That goes for ALL Nationals across the board. Osmond can skate cleaner (she is a flutzer and can never skate completely clean) at Nationals or Challenge because she doesn't really have any competition at home.

It's unusual for skaters to skate clean at all competitions all season. Skaters have put in clean comps at least once during the season. Top ranked skaters like Kostner don't have to be squeaky clean because her artistry yields very, very high PCS scores. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva skated a clean FS with 7 triples at Euros---she doesn't flutz or lip---and she still finished behind Kostner.

To contend with top skaters at Worlds, a newbie like Osmond or Gold has to skate a clean FS. But neither lady has managed to do that internationally. That's why I don't think either one has a chance of medaling at Worlds 2013.

Maybe Osmond beat Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Suzuki on home ice, but just because she beat them in October doesn't mean she can beat them in March. Those three ladies are very experienced skaters who know peaking early on is not the best strategy. Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva showed their mettle at Euros and they will be tough competition at Worlds.

[chuckm]

Thank you for pointing this out as it illustrates my point exactly. What Wagner showed is that she is not consistent. While it's almost impossible to be clean in every single FS, a consistent skater shouldn't go from clean skate to just landing 2 clean Triples in a subsequent competition. chuckm suggested given that Osmond did not deliver clean free in all her outings this year, therefore, he shouldn't be impressed with her consistency. But know that as a whole, Osmond's FS has been fairly consistent in that she will have mistakes but they remain at a respectable level despite the mistakes, as opposed to bombing like Wagner already did twice this year - once at GPF and then at U.S. Nationals.

Ashley BOMBED the GPF? She WON THE GPF SILVER MEDAL. And she won US Nationals as well. That's pretty respectable.

The only mistake Ashley made in her two GP gold medal performances was a flutz.
Osmond fell at both Nebelhorn and SC. If a fall at every international is consistency, then I guess Osmond is consistent, but not in a positive way.

[Ziggy]

I think Gold and Suzuki will bomb.

1. Osmond
2. Asada
3. Murakami

1. Hanyu
2. Takahashi
3. Aaron

1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
3. Peng/Zhang

1. Davis/White
2. Virtue/Moir
3. Chock/Bates

The competition is in Japan and there are four Asian judges (CHN, JPN, TPE, KOR). I don't expect to see more than one non-Asian skater on the Men's and Ladies podiums.

Why would Chinese, Taiwanese and Korean judges favour Japanese skaters? That doesn't make any sense.

[NMURA]

I think Gold and Suzuki will bomb.
Why would Chinese, Taiwanese and Korean judges favour Japanese skaters? That doesn't make any sense.

Because they have some kind of "Asian solidarity" on non-political matters. Japanese and Korean judges always support Chinese pairs. Chinese media like to praise Japanese (or Korean) athletes as "Asia's prides." I remember the cases of Naoko Takahashi (women's marathon gold medalist at Sydney Olympics) and Shizuka Arakawa. Asada is apparently THE most popular non-Chinese skater in China. There is one "Mao Asada board" in China's popular BBS site. Taiwan is always the most friendly country for Japan. If you find a Taiwanese judge in the panel, you can assume he is the agent of Japan. Korean judges usually favor Asada when their "star" is not participating.

Osmond is considered to be a threat to some countries. If she "wins" this one, she could be seen as a serious contender at worlds. Probably three of the panel will try to hold her down. Even if she skated like at Canadian nats, the score would be at least 20 points lower.

[Reginald]

Four Continents Championships has a history of being a redemption championship for the US Ladies.

In 2009, Caroline Zhang placed 3rd at the US Championships and was left off the world team (some thought unfairly).

At the 2009, Four Continents Championships, she finished ahead of the US two skaters that were going to worlds (Alissa Czisny and Rachel Flatt).


In 2011, Mirai Nagasu placed 3rd at the US Championships and was left off the world team (some thought unfairly).

At the 2011, Four Continents Championships, she finished ahead of the US two skaters that were going to worlds (Alissa Czisny and Rachel Flatt).


So this year, I expect Christina Gao to place ahead of the other two American Ladies.

1. Mao Asada
2. Akiko Suzuki
3. Christina Gao
4. Gracie Gold
5. Kaetlyn Osmond
6. Kanako Murakami
7. Kexin Zhang

Hey look! Melissa Bulanhagui is back!

[FSGMT]

1. Osmond
2. Asada
3. Murakami

THIS would be a scandal!!
I think it will be this:
1) Asada (no way for her to lose this in Japan, I hope she'll skate well, but she'll win even if she makes mistakes)
2) Gold (I think that her result at Nationals gave her confidence, if she nails her SP she's on the podium)
3) Suzuki (I SO hope that she skates well, especially her FS, it looks like she really needs to be happy!)
4) Osmond (she can have an edge over Gao and Zawadzki in the PCS unless she bombs)
I hope that Murakami will skate well, though (I love her FS, too), and that Zijun Li receives good scores...

[sky_fly20]

4CC will be a return to the inflated score Osmond got
this time though it wont be on her favor,

[ForeverFish]

I think Gold and Suzuki will bomb.

Would there be any particular reason?