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Thread: 4CCs Predictions

  1. #76
    Thank God for Stephane Lambiel and Matt Savoie! shine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The score seems a tad high for a FS with 3 clean triples:
    115.89 57.28 59.61 7.32 7.25 7.61 7.46 7.61 1.00 3fe+2t, 3ze↓, 2a+3t, 3s, 3f, 3t-so, 2a+2t+2t
    Osmond's lutz edge is about as clean as, say, Kim's flip edge. I counted 4 clean triples in your list by the way.

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Osmond's scores have been inflated by luck that her competitions were on home ground, Skate Canada and even at Nationals she scored a 200+
    It will be interesting how she will be scored against the Japanese she surpassed in 4CC to be held in Japan

    though I expect Osmond will be in Top 5 by Worlds or maybe bronze if the top have a splatfest as it will be held in Canada
    CompetitionS? She has had exactly one major international competition in her entire senior career--which is less than a season long--that happened to be in Canada. That is enough for you proclaim that her scores are "always being inflated due to hometown advantage"? Your sample size is impossibly small. Do people even use logic these days? And you are seriously going to include Canadian NATIONALS in your argument, where she was competiting against OTHER CANADIANS?
    Last edited by shine; 02-06-2013 at 03:24 PM.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by shine View Post
    Osmond's lutz edge is about as clean as, say, Kim's flip edge. I counted 4 clean triples in your list by the way.
    Comparing Osmond's lutz edge take-off to Kim's flip take-off is absurd. Osmond has a flutz and is trying to fix it. Yu-Na does not have an issue with her flip take-off. Really, isn't it possible for someone to support Osmond without taking a swipe at skaters who aren't even at this competition?

    That said, I expect, Asada, and two of the following: Osmond, Gold or Murakami to be on the podium for the ladies, in some order.

    For the men, I wouldn't be surprised if it was an all-Japanese podium.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by shine View Post
    I counted 4 clean triples in your list by the way.
    3fe+2t, [lip not clean] 3ze↓ [flutz not clean], 2a+3t [3t clean], 3s [3s clean], 3f [3f clean], 3t-so [step out not clean], 2a+2t+2t

    Six triples. Three not clean, three clean. Count 'em.

  4. #79
    More or less: more is more sequinsgalore's Avatar
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    My predictions

    Men
    1. Yuzuru Hanyu JPN
    2. Daisuke Takahashi JPN
    3. Ross Miner USA
    4. Max Aaron USA
    5. Takahito Mura JPN
    6. Kevin Reynolds CAN
    7. Yan Han CHN
    8. Nan Song CHN
    9. Richard Dornbush USA
    10. Denis Ten KAZ

    Ladies
    1. Mao Asada JPN
    2. Kaetlyn Osmond CAN
    3. Akiko Suzuki JPN
    4. Gracie Gold USA
    5. Kanako Murakami JPN
    6. Zijun Li CHN
    7. Christina Gao USA
    8. Agnes Zawadzki USA
    9. Kexin Zhang CHN
    10. Amelie Lacoste CAN

    Pairs
    1. Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford CAN
    2. Kirsten Moore-Towers / Dylan Moscovitch CAN
    3. Marissa Castelli / Simon Shnapir USA
    4. Cheng Peng / Hao Zhang CHN
    5. Alexa Scimeca / Chris Knierim USA
    6. Paige Lawrence / Rudi Swiegers CAN
    7. Felicia Zhang / Nathan Bartholomay USA
    8. Wenting Wang / Yan Zhang CHN

    Ice Dance
    1. Meryl Davis / Charlie White USA
    2. Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir CAN
    3. Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani USA
    4. Madison Chock / Evan Bates USA
    5. Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier CAN
    6. Nicole Orford / Thomas Williams CAN
    7. Cathy Reed / Chris Reed JPN

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by vpcanada View Post
    Nothing would make me happier than Kirsten and Dylan winning the gold! I agree with these pairs predictions.
    Nothing against D/R but I personally prefer M-T/M skating and I think they have the talent to win here. They were great at their Nationals and IMO will
    be breathing down D/R's neck for this title.

  6. #81
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaylee View Post
    Comparing Osmond's lutz edge take-off to Kim's flip take-off is absurd. Osmond has a flutz and is trying to fix it. Yu-Na does not have an issue with her flip take-off.
    ROFL! YuNa has only ever had ONE "e" call on her 3Flip in Seniors, in 2008, and it didn't have to do with faulty technique; skaters who have the proper edge for the Lutz and Flip sometimes take off on the wrong edge if they aren't focused. It's time to move on, people - she has a true Flip and did it without "e" in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012...

    Meanwhile Kaetlyn has...Flutzed at Skate Canada, Flutzed at Canadian Nats, Flutzed at...one gets the idea that she has a Flutz. NOT putting her down, I really like her, but really annoying that YuNa is called a "Lipper" on these forums from time-to-time in order for fans of other skaters to make excuses for their own.

  7. #82
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    ladies: Mao, katlyn Osmond, Zijun Li
    Men: HAnyu, Dai, Kevin
    pairs: D/R, T-M/M, P/Z
    Dance: W/D, V/M, Shibs

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    ROFL! YuNa has only ever had ONE "e" call on her 3Flip in Seniors, in 2008, and it didn't have to do with faulty technique; skaters who have the proper edge for the Lutz and Flip sometimes take off on the wrong edge if they aren't focused. It's time to move on, people - she has a true Flip and did it without "e" in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012...

    Meanwhile Kaetlyn has...Flutzed at Skate Canada, Flutzed at Canadian Nats, Flutzed at...one gets the idea that she has a Flutz. NOT putting her down, I really like her, but really annoying that YuNa is called a "Lipper" on these forums from time-to-time in order for fans of other skaters to make excuses for their own.
    Oh okay. I'm sorry for misidentifying but I don't closely keep track of Kim's competition protocols (I rarely read protocols anyway). From my naked eyes her flips sometimes do tend to look like lips but it's not too obvious. I have only seen Osmond do 3 lutzes, and from the angles that I have seen they don't look too much like flutzes (even if she does, she switches at the very last instance and it has been hard to spot with the angles I've been given). It's one of those "somewhere in the middle" cases. There's no need for me to make excuses for my favorites. I am healthy and happy enough with my own life that I don't need to do that. I will watch her lutz more closely next time and If I indeed think she flutzes then I will say she flutzes. Because, well, so what if she flutzes? Doesn't affect me one way or the other. Unlike fans of some certain other skaters.
    Last edited by shine; 02-06-2013 at 11:54 PM.

  9. #84
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    Yu-Na's takeoff edge on her flip is perfect. And she has nothing to do with this year's 4CC.

  10. #85
    can't come down to Earth prettykeys's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shine View Post
    Oh okay. I'm sorry for misidentifying but I don't closely keep track of Kim's competition protocols (I rarely read protocols anyway). From my naked eyes her flips sometimes do tend to look like lips but it's not too obvious. I have only seen Osmond do 3 lutzes, and from the angles that I have seen they don't look too much like flutzes (even if she does, she switches at the very last instance and it has been hard to spot with the angles I've been given). It's one of those "somewhere in the middle" cases. There's no need for me to make excuses for my favorites. I am healthy and happy enough with my own life that I don't need to do that. I will watch her lutz more closely next time and If I indeed think she flutzes then I will say she flutzes. Because, well, so what if she flutzes? Doesn't affect me one way or the other. Unlike fans of some certain other skaters.
    It's odd that to your naked eyes YuNa's Flips have looked like Lips but tech panels comprised of 3 people spanning the last 4 years of competitions with access to slo-mo haven't called a Lip on her...I guess you have x-ray vision of some sort?

    Anyway I didn't mean to sound as if I am singling you out for making that passing comment - it's just that lately I've also seen a Gracie fan call YuNa a "Lipper" and some Mao fans saying she's developed some kind of "hammertoe", just comments that make me go

    And I agree with you, a Flutz isn't a dealbreaker, and the IJS agrees that it shouldn't be. Kaetlyn has plenty of time to work on fixing it, if she chooses, and she has a lot of other strengths that make her a fabulous skater with tons of potential.

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    I see a lot think the Shibs will rebound and beat Chock and Bates ever interesting. WE'll see they must be hungry.

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    Does anyone know the status of Pang and Tong - is he trying to save himself to skate at world's and then go for surgery. Sounds crazy. It is too bad Chan was too scared to skate here or is there another reason. I think he knows he is in trouble. He should have worked on another quad and now it is too late. He is now surpassed by takahashhi and Hanyu and Fernadez. He won't even be ont he podium.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    Does anyone know the status of Pang and Tong - is he trying to save himself to skate at world's and then go for surgery. Sounds crazy. It is too bad Chan was too scared to skate here or is there another reason. I think he knows he is in trouble. He should have worked on another quad and now it is too late. He is now surpassed by takahashhi and Hanyu and Fernadez. He won't even be ont he podium.
    He might not make the podium, but he's never gone to a 4CC that was out of North America. He didn't go in 2011 after his epically amazing Nationals FS (where he signalled that he definitely wasn't in trouble, nor scared). or in 2008 (after he won his first title) (nor 2010, but no one from Canada was allowed to go if they were going to the Olympics).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    Does anyone know the status of Pang and Tong - is he trying to save himself to skate at world's and then go for surgery. Sounds crazy. It is too bad Chan was too scared to skate here or is there another reason. I think he knows he is in trouble. He should have worked on another quad and now it is too late. He is now surpassed by takahashhi and Hanyu and Fernadez. He won't even be ont he podium.
    It's sad to see that Chan is not on the place he was last season-he was at top of the world, but he obviously isn't right now. None of the world champions last year(Chan, Kostner, S/S, and V/M) seems to be on top of the world right now like they were at last year's Worlds. Well, maybe Kostner is doing well since she won gold medal at European Championships, but if Adelina didn't make a mistake at Euros with her FS, she would've won silver.

    It would be interesting to see if Mao succeeds with her 3A(no < or << or any other mistakes). If she does a nice 3A, she'll be a gold medal contender at this year's Worlds
    Last edited by vera01; 02-07-2013 at 07:43 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shine View Post
    Oh okay. I'm sorry for misidentifying but I don't closely keep track of Kim's competition protocols (I rarely read protocols anyway). From my naked eyes her flips sometimes do tend to look like lips but it's not too obvious. I have only seen Osmond do 3 lutzes, and from the angles that I have seen they don't look too much like flutzes (even if she does, she switches at the very last instance and it has been hard to spot with the angles I've been given). It's one of those "somewhere in the middle" cases. There's no need for me to make excuses for my favorites. I am healthy and happy enough with my own life that I don't need to do that. I will watch her lutz more closely next time and If I indeed think she flutzes then I will say she flutzes. Because, well, so what if she flutzes? Doesn't affect me one way or the other. Unlike fans of some certain other skaters.
    Flips sometimes have the impression of being on an outside edge because of the bend in the ankle on the take-off that some skaters tend to have. That has nothing to do with the edge, that's them applying some edge pressure and it doesn't necessarily mean their edge rolled over. Video analysis supports this. Most skaters do not do their flip jumps off really deep inside edges, as it can cause the take-off to be unstable (nevermind the risk of losing the edge on the take-off). That's also one of the reasons why a lot of skaters moved to short lutz take-off (i.e. Slutskaya, who had no Flutz issues, moved to a shorter lutz take-off to improve her take-off stability and consistency, and suddenly it went form being her most inconsistent jump to one of her most consistent).

    As for the hammer toe. Well, some could call it that, on her flip and lutz. It's slightly there, but not excessive like a Lipinski Lutz or Murakami's toe jumps. It's more reminiscent of Ito's toe jumps.

    I do think Yuna Kim's toe loop technique when it's the back jump in her combinations is sort of bad, though. She tends to jump off of two feet and rotate instead of bringing the skating leg back on the jump. Actually, the technique she uses is actually quite astonishing because she makes the jump way harder than it needs to be. Instead of doing 2.5'ish rotations which is normal for a Triple Toe Loop, she does a full 3. But it can cost her URs in places where a proper take-off would have easily gotten the jump around.

    I've seen her solo 3Toe and it looked much better. Her Salchow landings scare me a little...

    A Flutz should be a major fault, even a slight one. Because a Lutz is significantly more difficult than a flip. That's why the BV of a 3 Loop compared to a 3 Flip is 5.1 vs. 5.2 and then it jumps up to 6.0 for a 3 Lutz. To say a flutz isn't a big deal is to say that it's of comparable difficulty to a Loop or Flip, and therefore should be overlooked at a fairly minor error - which it isn't. Skaters learn Half and Single Lutzes in Learn to Skate and by the time they're elite they should have mastery over basic edges and take-off mechanics. Edge calls on jump take-offs need to be penalized more, and a bonus should be given to skaters who can display all 5 triples in one program. 3/3 Combinations should get a 10% bonus to the base value of the jumps. The distribution bonus for jumps in the last half of the program should be halved as it allows skaters with easier programs or virtually extinct components to game the system by simply backloading their programs (in Ladies this means we often get to see 2 Salchows back there).

    Skaters who have edge issues on a jump will usually not have more than one in a program. Gracie Gold has only one Flip in her FS, and Ashley Wagner/Sotnikova only one Lutz, for example.
    Last edited by SkateNater; 02-07-2013 at 10:24 AM.

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