More or less: more is more
Men is going to be hard to predict, as all contenders have shown inconsistencies. Here's some numbers (GP, Nats, senior B, EC/4CC included)
Min: 243.43 (SC)
Max: 273.75 (Nats)
Verdict: Highest average, though nats results pulls it up. No definite trend, perhaps slightly rising.
Min: 222.77 (4CC)
Max: 280.40 (Nats)
Verdict: Solid average, but also the most inconsistent. Trend: Rollercoaster, I suppose...
Min: 243.74 (SA)
Max: 285.23 (Nats)
Verdict: Good average. Upward trend until 4CC.
Min: 228.78 (Nats)
Max: 274.87 (EC)
Verdict. Average lower, but Nats pulls it down and he had no competition there. Otherwise his average is 251.08. Otherwise on the rise.
Min: 192.12 (Ondrej)
Max: 261.26 (Nats)
Verdict. Low average, but he started the season slow because of UR's. Very steep rising trend.
Min: 214.25 (TEB)
Max: 250.53 (EC)
Verdict: Also slow start, but definite on the rise.
Min: 201.71 (NT)
Max: 243.52 (EC)
Verdict: Slow start, but getting it together now.
3. Really an open competition here between B/L, D/R, MT/M, and P/T, because it's in Canada I really think MT/M and D/R have a real shot here. Especially since B/L and P/T haven't skated in a while, may be rusty
3 Carolina or Adelina
now after 4CC I can weigh in
3 Chan - even his pcs cushion wont be enough
3 D/R - locked as Canadians
Ice Dance - locks
2 D/W - would love for them to win but this is impossible to happen
carolina kostner or elizaveta, adelina, kaetlyn=despite 4cc, akiko
yuzuru, daisuke or kevin reynolds
s/s or vt
would like davis/white but probably be virture and moir
pechalat/bourzat or the russians bobrova/soliev or ilynkh and katsalpov
1. Chan (surprisingly putting him first is going out on a limb here)
Spoilers: Takahashi, Mura, Reynolds
1. Kim (i think the mystique of yuna kim will put her on top)
Spoilers: Wagner, Suzuki, Li Ziqun, Osmond, or one of the Russian girls
3. S/S (i feel that due to injury they are a little off this season)
Spoilers: Mt/M, B/L
1. V/M (my head thinks D/W but whatever, going with my heart)
3. B/S (initially picked P/B but after looking at scores with P/B best at gpf only a point ahead of B/S best at euro... and factoring in injury/lost time, i'm going with b/s instead)
Spoilers: P/B, I/K
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Carolina Kostner.
1. Akiko Suzuki
2. Mao Asada
3. Yu-Na Kim
For the gold medal, Mao, Yuna and Carolina are neck and neck. It will all come down to who can jump most cleanly on the day, and there are too many unknown factors to even make a guess as to how they'll be scored. Outside hopefuls for bronze are Elizaveta, Adelina, Ashley and Akiko.
For the gold medal, Javier and Patrick are neck and neck. Outside hopefuls for silver/bronze are Yuzuru and Daisuke.
Either V/M or D/W will win gold and the other one will get silver. P/B for bronze.
My updated list:
1. Mao Asada
2. Kim Yuna
3. Carolina Kostner
4. Ashley Wagner
5. Akiko Suzuki
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
7. Gracie Gold
8. Kanako Murakami
9. Adelina Sotnikova
10. Zijun Li
2. Chan or Hanyu
3. Hanyu or Chan
1-3: Kim, Kostner, Asada
4-6: Ashley, Akiko, Elizaveta
7-12: Gold, Sotnikova, Murakami, Li, Osmond, Meite, Marchei
3. Reynolds/Aaron - after 4CC it seems possible that this can happen
On the Ice
My wish list:
1. Mao Asada
2. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
3. Akiko Suzuki (actually Caroline Zhang but ahhh)
4. Li Zijun
5. Yuna Kim
6. Ashley Wagner
7. Gracie Gold
8. Adelina Sotnikova
9. Kaetlyn Osmond
10. Kanako Murakami
11. Carolina Kostner
I know I'm crazy. I saw almost all the people consider Kim, Mao and Carolina to go head to head but it would be so boring. After taking into consideration that ice is slippery only 2 things would still never happen and that is Kim finishing behind Zijun and Kostner dropping to 11th. Also if you look at my wish list it gives Russia, Japan, and USA 3 spots for the Olypics. I doubt South Korea and Italy need those 3 spots. China (with Kexin), Italy (with Marchei) and South Korea would all get 2. I really like my wish list
It's difficult to pick the men's
1. Javier Fernandez
3. D/R--- haven't seen P/T much this season, but if they skate, their goal is to earn 3 spots for China and they are capable to make top 3
1. V/M ---I wish it's D/W but V/M get hometown advantage, not going to happen if they're not substantially better