she takes the audience on her journey of emotions
For the ladies, I say the momentum is on Mao's side. I'm going to go with her. I just love her LP this year, it's exquisite and the music maybe an old warhorse but there is also no other lady skater right now who could do it justice like Mao can.
It's looking hard for Ashley to make the podium. I'm guessing Yuna and Carolina will share the podium with Mao but there are also the Russian ladies. One thing for sure is that it's going to be a real competition. Yay!
I really have been struggling to keep up this season so I have to watch the men. I wouldn't have predicted that Chan would be as vulnerable as he is! I'm still going with him for gold though. For now...
I think Mao has a high chance of winning if she skates clean(both SP and FS), but that's unlikely to happen. When was a last time that Mao skated a clean SP&FS with 1~2 3As and 3F+3Lo(no downgrades or URs)?
Originally Posted by Layfan
Of course, Mao can definitely win with a SP&FS exactly like 4CC(though I'd expect her total score to be slightly lower) over Yuna with few(more than 3) major mistakes
1. Virtue/Moir (the superior team by far but will they be rewarded for the extreme difficulty & innovation of their modern dance Carmen program?)
2. Davis/White (will probably win because their FS is clean & precise – but predictable & one dimensional)
3. Pechalat/Bourzat (twighlight days for this senior team)
Bobrova/Soloviev and Ilynikh/Katsalapov could possibly beat P/B; they have less technical difficulty altho better expression & connection)
Men: (wide open with such depth)
But with a number of talented guys right there to swoop onto the podium if anyone falters.
Ladies: (also somewhat wide open with depth)
But in the hunt are Asada, Suzuki, Korpi,Osmond, Gold and the Russians. Whoever brings it on the day.
2. Savchenko/Szolkowy (or the other way around – both amazing)
I also agree that South Korea and Italy won't really need 3 spots for the Olympic games I think Yuna said she wants 3 spots so she can compete at Sochi with other young skaters from South Korea, but still, I don't think they'll be Top.15 skaters by Sochi 2014. On the other hand, it would be really unfair to see that skaters like Mirai, Agnes and Christina who all have potential to be in Top.15 won't be at Sochi 2014 just because, for example, US only has 2 spots for Sochi 2014. Considering that, I'd put my list like this:
Originally Posted by Cherryy
5.Adelina Sotnikova:I just prefer Adelina over Liza because she's an all-around skater(though Liza is definitely much better at jumps, since Liza doesn't flutz)
Which is very unlikely to happen And this isn't my wish list, as I hope Yuna wins gold medal at Worlds
I think it's unfair that ISU doesn't give 3 spots to the country that really needs them(for example, US, Russia and Japan), but give 3 spots away to country that gold and silver medalists represent(if they're the only one from their country competing at Worlds). But rules are rules...
Can somebody tell me what places should the Russian girls get to have 3 spots for Sochi? Will 4+5 or 5+6 be enough? That is my only wish. It's not fair if there'll be just 2 our girls in Sochi, especially given that in 2018 many of our talents won't get the chance to be in the Russian Olympic team
1. Mao Asada
2. Yuna Kim
3. Carolina Kostner
4. Adelina Sotnikova
5. Ashley Wagner
Last edited by vera01; 02-15-2013 at 06:34 AM.
If you think about how the last two worlds looked a little pale, this year is so amazing again! So many lovely ladies that I want to do well, it's really exciting. So for the predictions...
1.) Yuna Kim
She's the most likely to deliver clean or at least close to clean.
2.) Mao Asada
I don't think it would need Yuna to do several major mistakes for 4CC-Mao to overtake her. Her planned BV is over 12points higher than Yunas planned one, and even 4CC-BV tops Yunas with about 3 points. Yes, Yuna can make that difference up with +GOE, but then there's the question again how likely Yuna is to be completly clean in both SP and FS. With Mao's insane content I'm not even trying to believe she'll go clean, but 4CC + 3S instead of 2S should already give her pretty good chances to win.
3.) Carolina Kostner
Last season, she kept getting better and better with every competition, but this year, she skipped the grand prix. That's why I don't think she'll be mistakes-free here. If everyone is clean, Caro should win in PCS, and she has 7 triples planned in the FS. She might aswell win it, I just feel she might be the biggest question mark of the three.
4.) Akiko Suzuki
Simply because she rocks
5.) Adelina Sotnikova
This is probably a little optimistic... anyway, Adelina looked very determined to me at Euro's. I just don't want to believe it was a fluke. If she manages to skate like that again, 5th isn't out of reach for her at all.
6.) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Same as Adelina - althogh she's more likely to skate good, her PCS are really holding her down,
7.) Ashley Wagner
Yes, just in 7th. The major plus Ashley had at the GP was fight + making nearly no mistakes. But without a 3-3 nor even a 2A-3T she really is dependant on that. Since nats last year she had the momentum going for her, but I think her last two showings ended that streak somehow. I'm not too sure she can show off the same kind of confidence she had at the beginning of the season, or that even clean skates will give her the same marks as before (getting 66+ is probably not as likely with Yuna, Caro and a better Mao around).
8.) Kanako Murakami
I might even have her higher, if not for those UR's...
9.) Kaetlyn Osmond
Tough call here. She did good enough at 4CC for a newcomer in my opinion, and I still think she'll be a star in the future. For now, top10 is definitly doable. But she's hard to rank for me at this point.
10.) Zijun Li
I'd like to see her placing higher, but with her PCS that seems unlikely. Would still be a nice debut
Other possiblities: Gracie Gold and Elene Gedevanishvili. Both can score very well, both are prone to make mistakes. Hard to predict. (Though I really, really hope Elene comes roaring back after Euro's!)
Funny, despite the men being really strong this year, I'm more excited for the ladies... oh well
1.) Javier Fernandez
Would be fun. Has the best LP this season, had great skates at GPF and Euros and looks likely to continue like that. I think he'd be a nice world champion.
2.) Daisuke Takahashi
Okay, maybe a liiiiiittle bit of hope thrown in here. So what. Daisuke has his ups and downs quite often, but he more often than not delivers when it counts. And he needs to win in Sochi for my little fan-heart to be happy, so making the podium here will be a good starting point.
3.) Yuzuru Hanyu
He might even win, but the 4S is giving him a lot of trouble. If he delivers in the SP, he will very likely win that segment, but he's a little bit of a wild card in the LP.
4.) Patrick Chan
That was a very tough decision. It would be so weird to see Patrick off the podium, but maybe that way he will get a technical coach again. Though I'd like him to stay with Buttle, Nichol/Chan was getting old...
5.) Florent Amodio
Not too sure why myself. He did great at Euros, gets the Morozov-PCS and... because Euros was much better than 4CC this year (stupid argument, I know).
6.) Brian Joubert
Because you can never count him out!
7.) Ross Miner
I'm not a fan, but I think he'll recover from 4CC and is a way better combination between TES and PCS than most of the guys that are still to come.
8.) Kevin Reynolds
Probably not the most popular vote after 4CC. But all of his jumps are looking tight, and it seems like a tougher panel might slaughter his TES. I do like him and I'd be happy for him if he places better, but this field is really good and since it's his quads, and mainly those, that keep him competitive, I'm still a little cautious.
9.) Michal Brezina
Woah, now I've suprised myself. He can easily do so much better than that, but since he never skates even close to clean, I think a strong field like this might really leave him behind.
10.) Takahito Mura
Maybe I'm weird, but I think Mura is quite underscored in PCS. He's not the most artistic skater, but his SS are really good, his choreography is decent and he has a good feel for the music. But as things are, he probably doesn't have good chances to place that much better than this.
Other possibilities: Nan Song and Maxim Kovtun. I'd want both to make the top 10, to give their countries two spots for Sochi.
And there's Max Aaron, I know... saw him for the first time at 4CC. His jumps are nice, but I'm not that impressed. If you depend on your jumps and really just that, even small mistakes might leave you behind very far against some guys with good SS and actual choreo. And I'm not too sure how he'll handle that pressure.
Last edited by Li'Kitsu; 02-15-2013 at 08:42 AM.
Her PCS at 4CC in the LP was only slightly higher than the one in GPF, so I don't think her score would change that much at Worlds. I even think it might be higher cause scores tend to go up at Worlds if skaters deliver. More than 3 is not considered few. I think Yuna can't afford that many mistakes at Worlds this year.
Originally Posted by vera01
Well.. I just remembered that Yuna made 3 mistakes at 2011 Worlds, and won silver there. Judges aren't going to give away gold medal to a skater who makes three mistakes.
Originally Posted by miki88
You're right. Skater(Carolina, Mao, or Yuna) that delivers the cleanest(or a program that looks like a clean program, which means, no falls, one or two UR but no downgrades, and 1~2 flutz or lip) program would win gold medal. Yuna is by far the most consistent skater, but Mao and Carolina can definitely deliver clean program, too. Even South Korea Nationals Yuna(even with an almost clean FS) might not be winning gold medal because of her mistakes at SP.
Yuna should be skating in group 2 or 3 at Worlds. I'm curious to see if that'll affect her score..
ooh~ why is that? If that is the case for her SP, then I think it will actually be better for Yuna to skate early. Yuna seems to feel less pressure when she goes early.
Originally Posted by vera01
I don't think skating in earlier group will not affect Kim score. Only Mao and Kim had cracked the 70+ mark so far, and you can bet if Caro goes clean, she will join them too. Question is will Caro go with harder content 3F+3T and 3Lz or easier 3T+3T and 3Lo???
Originally Posted by YunaBliss
Adelina and Liza can get close to 68-69 range if they goes clean, but chances are judges will hold them down around 66-67 range. Same goes for Suzuki, thou she was still under score for her super SP at 4CC in PCS wise. Ashley can get around 65 range too, but at this point still question mark bc of her injury, which we will know in practice sessions.
Regarding Yuna winning base on her GOE, I think the format had changed and it hurt her the most since she used to get crazy +2 +3 like a free pop corns in theater. Now she can only get higher GOE wise on her 3+3, the cushion she will get will be like 50% of what she used to have.
But def ladies is more wide open field than men.
For men, i bet only Chan, Fernandez and Hanyu will be on podium. Takahashi is big question mark after 4CC!
At the beginning of the season, if you had asked me would I be more comfortable predicting Fernandez on the podium than I would predicting Hanyu/Chan/Takahashi (aka, the three medalists from last year's worlds), I might have thought you were nuts. But the way he's been skating is exceptional, and he's really peaking very well this year (something he didn't do so well last season).
You sound as if Yuna doesn't deserve those GOEs. As far as I'm concerned, her program earned that GOE with her ice coverage, flow, techniques, audience connections etc.
Originally Posted by wonderlen3000
But I do agree that GOE range has changed (except 3A, which I don't understand) and it'll be harder for her to earn those deserving GOEs.
My guess is
I put Mao 1st because of her BV, if she delivers a clean program, there's noway Yuna can beat her. However, with UR and edge calls from the judges, Mao may not be able to win gold. But then again, there's that 70% rule............ very iffy to say who'll win gold.
3rd, I honestly do not care who gets it.