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Thread: Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

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    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

    Who should Carolina truly be worried about as she tried to defend at the WC? Adelina and Liza were great at Euros. Does Suzuki have a chance or just Mao to dethrone the stunning Kostner? What do you think?

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    Kostner is in control of her own destiny at Worlds. She should be able to hold off Adelina and Liza if she goes clean, even though they have superior jump layouts. She'll make up points in spinning and expected PCS. I'm guessing the WC judges will not grant as much of a PCS discrepancy between Kostner and the Russians as was at Euros.

    Suzuki definitely has a chance to beat Kostner. If you add their best international SP+FS this season, Kostner has the edge by about 3 points, but that is with an arguably inflated score at Europeans. I think the bronze will actually be battled for by Suzuki, Kostner, and maybe Wagner if she gets it together.

    That being said, I can picture a clean Sotnikova/Liza taking the bronze, but they will require others to falter.

    Kostner needs to worry about Yu Na (right now a definite favourite) and Mao (who, like Kostner, still garners high scores even with errors).

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    I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.

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    Kostner and Kim (and to a lesser extent, Asada) are in control of their own destiny. They don't need others to make mistake to win/medal.

    And for the Russian girls, Akiko, Wagner, and Korpi, Jesus take the wheel for them.

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    Yes of course they all can beat the young Russians. If kostner added two more triple salchows than not only would she have beaten Liza but also sotnikova. Sotnikova and tuktamisheva don't have the jumps or don't have the pcs. They have triple triples and flip and lutz but need more if they don't get 70 pcs too.

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    Custom Title Minze2001's Avatar
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    It is amazing how when Asada is discussed some consider her inferior to Yuna and now even Kostner. Asada is not given high scores for free. Her PCS is stunning, her skating skills deserve those scores. The judges dont give her anything.
    Last edited by Minze2001; 01-30-2013 at 08:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.
    We will know more after the 4CC, so much will be clearer very shortly, be patient.

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    This year? Yes

    Next year? If they put it any effort to increasing their PCS, than probably not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Kostner is in control of her own destiny at Worlds. She should be able to hold off Adelina and Liza if she goes clean, even though they have superior jump layouts. She'll make up points in spinning and expected PCS. I'm guessing the WC judges will not grant as much of a PCS discrepancy between Kostner and the Russians as was at Euros.

    Suzuki definitely has a chance to beat Kostner. If you add their best international SP+FS this season, Kostner has the edge by about 3 points, but that is with an arguably inflated score at Europeans. I think the bronze will actually be battled for by Suzuki, Kostner, and maybe Wagner if she gets it together.

    That being said, I can picture a clean Sotnikova/Liza taking the bronze, but they will require others to falter.

    Kostner needs to worry about Yu Na (right now a definite favourite) and Mao (who, like Kostner, still garners high scores even with errors).
    Kostner shouldn't be able to make up point on Sotnikova in spinning, because Sotnikova is 2x the spinner than Kostner could ever hope to be. In PCS, yes, maybe, but Kostner tends to telegraph her harder jumps (Lutz and Flip, for example) while skaters like Sotnikova have transitions into those harder jumps. She has no reliable 3/3, unlike the Russians.

    What Sotnikova lacks is consistency. She didn't fall at Euros, but she still popped that flip (which cost her the win) and those are the types of errors that make it easier for the judges to justify placing a veteran over a newbie at major competitions. Kostner can spin better than Tuktamysheva, but Eliza is 5x the jumper Kostner is and it will really depend on whether she can get through the short program without an error, IRT how well she is positioned going into the FS.

    The PCS inflation that goes on can only be justified to a certain extent. So far the judges have been able to justify it with the errors competitors have been making in the ssame competition (Asada's win at NHK), but if the field is relatively clean and consistent it will be hard to place Kostner over the Russians, nevermind her tactic is working against her since it is forcing the judges to throw high scores out to technically inferior programs - similar to what happened in 2009-10 with the men when the quad was an endangered species.

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    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    Who should Carolina truly be worried about as she tried to defend at the WC? Adelina and Liza were great at Euros. Does Suzuki have a chance or just Mao to dethrone the stunning Kostner? What do you think?
    She should be worried most about herself. Defending a world title is an incredible test of nerves, especially nowadays. In the post-figures era only Kristi Yamaguchi and Michelle Kwan were able to do it. Add to that a far more competitive field compared to last year when she won, with many contenders hungry to grab the premier spotlight of the Worlds-before Olympics podium. Can she keep it together under this pressure? It would be quite a reversal from years past.

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