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Thread: Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

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    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

    Who should Carolina truly be worried about as she tried to defend at the WC? Adelina and Liza were great at Euros. Does Suzuki have a chance or just Mao to dethrone the stunning Kostner? What do you think?

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    Kostner is in control of her own destiny at Worlds. She should be able to hold off Adelina and Liza if she goes clean, even though they have superior jump layouts. She'll make up points in spinning and expected PCS. I'm guessing the WC judges will not grant as much of a PCS discrepancy between Kostner and the Russians as was at Euros.

    Suzuki definitely has a chance to beat Kostner. If you add their best international SP+FS this season, Kostner has the edge by about 3 points, but that is with an arguably inflated score at Europeans. I think the bronze will actually be battled for by Suzuki, Kostner, and maybe Wagner if she gets it together.

    That being said, I can picture a clean Sotnikova/Liza taking the bronze, but they will require others to falter.

    Kostner needs to worry about Yu Na (right now a definite favourite) and Mao (who, like Kostner, still garners high scores even with errors).

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    I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.

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    Kostner and Kim (and to a lesser extent, Asada) are in control of their own destiny. They don't need others to make mistake to win/medal.

    And for the Russian girls, Akiko, Wagner, and Korpi, Jesus take the wheel for them.

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    Yes of course they all can beat the young Russians. If kostner added two more triple salchows than not only would she have beaten Liza but also sotnikova. Sotnikova and tuktamisheva don't have the jumps or don't have the pcs. They have triple triples and flip and lutz but need more if they don't get 70 pcs too.

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    Custom Title Minze2001's Avatar
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    It is amazing how when Asada is discussed some consider her inferior to Yuna and now even Kostner. Asada is not given high scores for free. Her PCS is stunning, her skating skills deserve those scores. The judges dont give her anything.
    Last edited by Minze2001; 01-30-2013 at 08:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    Who should Carolina truly be worried about as she tried to defend at the WC? Adelina and Liza were great at Euros. Does Suzuki have a chance or just Mao to dethrone the stunning Kostner? What do you think?
    She should be worried most about herself. Defending a world title is an incredible test of nerves, especially nowadays. In the post-figures era only Kristi Yamaguchi and Michelle Kwan were able to do it. Add to that a far more competitive field compared to last year when she won, with many contenders hungry to grab the premier spotlight of the Worlds-before Olympics podium. Can she keep it together under this pressure? It would be quite a reversal from years past.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minze2001 View Post
    It is amazing how when Asada is discussed some consider her inferior to Yuna and now even Kostner. Asada is not given high scores for free. Her PCS is stunning, her skating skills deserve those scores. The judges dont give her anything.
    She was equal footing with the other girls when she had her 3As. She doesn't really have good technique on her flip. Her flutz was well known. She just got her Salchow back. Her best jump was her loop, and I think it's about the same level as Kostner's loop.

    Tell me which one you don't agree with
    Lutz, Kim > Kostner > Asada
    Flip, Kostner >= Kim > Asada
    Loop, Kostner = Asada > Kim
    Salchow, Kostner > Kim > Asada
    Toe, Kim >= Kostner > Asada
    Spins, Asada >= Kostner > Kim
    Steps, Kostner >= Asada > Kim
    Skating Skill
    Kostner > Kim > Asada

    The rest of the components depend on the programs. Sometime Asada have better programs, sometime Kim have better programs, sometime Kostner have better programs.

    But from the TES standpoint, she's weaker than the other two girls. I think it's a fair assessment that she's now inferior to both. Unless she regains her 3As, and improve on her flip or loop, she won't beat them in TES.
    Last edited by FlattFan; 01-30-2013 at 08:44 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.
    I don't think Osmond will get the PCS necessary to make the podium, even with clean skates. It's a really tall order considering several other skaters will be allowed to make errors and could still potentially come out ahead of you. I can picture her defeating a top skater or two in the SP, but being held back by PCS in the FS. Only skating clean can give her a shot at a medal, a single major error in her FS like at Canadians will immediately put her off the podium. She could pull a Takahashi/Tran and be the cleanest of the bunch and earn a bronze though. A dark horse if there ever was one.


    Quote Originally Posted by Minze2001 View Post
    It is amazing how when Asada is discussed some consider her inferior to Yuna and now even Kostner. Asada is not given high scores for free. Her PCS is stunning, her skating skills deserve those scores. The judges dont give her anything.
    Asada is given high scores for her free skate. Look at NHK trophy. Or even last year at Worlds when she landed 2 triples and was given the 2nd highest PCS. While I think she has improved over the years, I honestly think the main reason Mao is getting as high PCS scores as she's getting is because she's been around for a while. She certainly isn't earning them this season, IMO.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I 100% agree with your analysis CSG. I'm tempted to add Kaetlyn to the list of bronze contenders but she has had so little international experience that I don't think she's ready to put it all together on this big of a stage.
    We will know more after the 4CC, so much will be clearer very shortly, be patient.

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    This year? Yes

    Next year? If they put it any effort to increasing their PCS, than probably not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    She was equal footing with the other girls when she had her 3As. She doesn't really have good technique on her flip. Her flutz was well known. She just got her Salchow back. Her best jump was her loop, and I think it's about the same level as Kostner's loop.

    Tell me which one you don't agree with
    Lutz, Kim > Kostner > Asada
    Flip, Kostner > Kim > Asada
    Loop, Kostner = Asada > Kim
    Salchow, Kostner > Kim > Asada
    Toe, Kim >= Kostner > Asada

    Skating Skill
    Kostner > Kim > Asada

    The rest of the components depend on the programs. Sometime Asada have better programs, sometime Kim have better programs, sometime Kostner have better programs.

    But from the TES standpoint, she's weaker than the other two girls. I think it's a fair assessment that she's now inferior to both. Unless she regains her 3As, and improve on her flip or loop, she won't beat them in TES.
    3Z, Kim > Kostner (just got it back) >> Asada (still flutzes and doubles occasionally)
    3F, Kim > Kostner > Asada (while Kostner and Kim have better technique and speed on their flip, Asada is consistently given good GOE for it, though... I give edge to Kim because she's able to tack on a 3T to hers, which is an advantage)
    3L, Kostner >> Asada (Kostner has nicer transitions and better height and speed, Asada's is consistent, Kim doesn't attempt it so she really shouldn't be compared)
    3S, Kostner = Kim >> Asada (Kostner has a nice salchow, but so does Kim, both do two of them, Asada's 3S is her worst)
    XX-3T, Kim >>> Kostner > Asada (Kim is the only one who can reliably do her 3T in combos without UR... Kostner has a good 3T but sometimes makes errors, Asada often UR's it in combination with 2A)
    2A, Asada > Kim > Kostner

    Choreography/Performance
    Kim > Kostner > Asada

    Spins
    Kostner > Kim > Asada

    Consistency
    Kim > Asada > Kostner

    At this point I think Kim is obviously the one to beat and Kostner and Asada will duel it out for silver/bronze. Even though I think Kostner has better jumps than Asada, Asada is slightly more consistent and still gets similar GOE as Kostner. A huge advantage is in Kim's ability to tack on 3T to her flip/lutz/2A.

  13. #13
    Custom Title Minze2001's Avatar
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    NHK trophy Mao had a bad day. But look at her performance at the GPF final, she was not given the scores she was the best that night. The claim that she is giving high PCS because she is been around time can be said about other skaters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minze2001 View Post
    NHK trophy Mao had a bad day. But look at her performance at the GPF final, she was not given the scores she was the best that night. The claim that she is giving high PCS because she is been around time can be said about other skaters.
    Yes, she had a bad day, I'm not denying that. But she was given great scores for her bad day, which is an example of the judges giving her great scores when she didn't earn them. Obviously not her fault, but it's still a recent example.

    As for the claim being applied to other skaters, yes, I agree. And it's wrong in those cases, too.

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    Kostner finished 2nd in both SP and FS at Euros, but she did win the competition. Tuktamysheva doubled the lutz in her SP, and Sotnikova URd her 3/3 and singled the flip in her FS.

    Kostner doubled two jumps in the FS but that didn't affect her marks much, as her PCS scores were huge. She doesn't have to be completely clean to beat the Russian babies, but they have to be completely clean to even have a shot at beating her.

    I expect Kim and Kostner to finish 1st and 2nd in any order. If Asada has a skate like the one at the GPF, she'll take the bronze unless Wagner gets her mojo back and skates lights out.

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