What Sotnikova lacks is consistency. She didn't fall at Euros, but she still popped that flip (which cost her the win) and those are the types of errors that make it easier for the judges to justify placing a veteran over a newbie at major competitions. Kostner can spin better than Tuktamysheva, but Eliza is 5x the jumper Kostner is and it will really depend on whether she can get through the short program without an error, IRT how well she is positioned going into the FS.
The PCS inflation that goes on can only be justified to a certain extent. So far the judges have been able to justify it with the errors competitors have been making in the ssame competition (Asada's win at NHK), but if the field is relatively clean and consistent it will be hard to place Kostner over the Russians, nevermind her tactic is working against her since it is forcing the judges to throw high scores out to technically inferior programs - similar to what happened in 2009-10 with the men when the quad was an endangered species.
So, no one can realistically answer that question.
Plus, if Lipnitskaya had not gotten injured she probably would have taken the final, anyways.
Part of the reason why Michelle Kwan won was the same reasons people are using to justify Asada and Kostner's wins.
I think people are losing sight of the fact that figure skating actually IS a sport. And for that, I've had a change of heart in the past weeks/months of reading this stuff.
I hope the IJS starts rewarding jumps more, adding bonuses to 3/3 combinations, etc. It will combat the PCS inflation of veteran skaters (and National champions of influential nations) and reward those who are pushing the envelop in a more sports[wo]manlike way.
i dont think Asada's this season programs was bad, enjoy to see
But, she continue to win by strong in pcs and low tes score
so I wonder in worlds, she meet with Kostner and yuna, what will happen...
Last edited by venlac; 02-05-2013 at 02:36 PM.
Kim will beat Asada in PCS and Kostner will atleast match her, so if Mao comes out doing only 3 or 4 clean triples she will get her butt kicked. She is not going to be able to rely on some big PCS edge to overcome technical inferiority vs those two like she does vs say Suzuki, not a chance. Even the Russians with their recent improvement, and Wagner if she works her butt off after an embarassing last 2 free skates, will beat her if she continues with what she has done this season so far.
For the current season best, Kostner's PCS is 4 points higher than Mao's in the LP alone.
I say if Kostner is anywhere near clean, she will have at least a triple jump advantage over Mao's.
Kim and Kostner's PCS will have much smaller gap than these two and Mao's.
I predicted Mao would have to out jump these two to place above them.
Based on the GP series, Mao, even with a lost to Suzuki in NHK and a lost to Lipnikskaya, would have made the final. The skaters wouldn't have changed.
Based on the skating in the GPF, Mao would have won in any system. Lipnikskaya would have been destroyed there and probably wouldn't even make Russian National.
Only reason I'd say that Yuna won't have higher PCS than Mao or Carolina:She has no federation support at all! However, she seems to be capable of getting high TES and PCS Younger skaters are only capable of getting high TES, whereas older skaters get high PCS, but not TES.
Not all get that Olympic title bonus but I can see Yu na getting that bonus because she was actually the top skater (along with Mao) at the time.