Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

[FSGMT]

Why would she have planned the second flip as a double in her FP at Worlds? That wouldn't make any sense. She performed 6 triples including two 3flips just before Worlds at Challenge Cup 2012: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbFWbiEGO5Q, probably to try out the new jump layout as she had been doing a different one all season long.

She is listed under the entries for Challenge Cup 2013 by the way. If she really competes there I guess this is the place for her to try out her new jump layout for worlds (if she plans to change it).

Maybe this one: 3Lz/2A/3F+3T/3F+2T/3S+2T+2Lo/3S? It would be amazing (and no-one would say that she doesn't deserve the titles she wins!)

[b-man]

Yes. The judges already showed at Euros that they like Adelina a lot.

I would like to hear some opinions whether Sot is back as a major contender. She struggled most of last year, had a lackluster GP season this year, didn't make the GP final, didn't win Russian nationals like she usually does, and suddenly at Europeans is within a point of Kostner. Is she back as a major contender for the podium at Worlds, Sochi?

[SkateNater]

Kostner is in control of her own destiny at Worlds. She should be able to hold off Adelina and Liza if she goes clean, even though they have superior jump layouts. She'll make up points in spinning and expected PCS. I'm guessing the WC judges will not grant as much of a PCS discrepancy between Kostner and the Russians as was at Euros.

Suzuki definitely has a chance to beat Kostner. If you add their best international SP+FS this season, Kostner has the edge by about 3 points, but that is with an arguably inflated score at Europeans. I think the bronze will actually be battled for by Suzuki, Kostner, and maybe Wagner if she gets it together.

That being said, I can picture a clean Sotnikova/Liza taking the bronze, but they will require others to falter.

Kostner needs to worry about Yu Na (right now a definite favourite) and Mao (who, like Kostner, still garners high scores even with errors).

Kostner shouldn't be able to make up point on Sotnikova in spinning, because Sotnikova is 2x the spinner than Kostner could ever hope to be. In PCS, yes, maybe, but Kostner tends to telegraph her harder jumps (Lutz and Flip, for example) while skaters like Sotnikova have transitions into those harder jumps. She has no reliable 3/3, unlike the Russians.

What Sotnikova lacks is consistency. She didn't fall at Euros, but she still popped that flip (which cost her the win) and those are the types of errors that make it easier for the judges to justify placing a veteran over a newbie at major competitions. Kostner can spin better than Tuktamysheva, but Eliza is 5x the jumper Kostner is and it will really depend on whether she can get through the short program without an error, IRT how well she is positioned going into the FS.

The PCS inflation that goes on can only be justified to a certain extent. So far the judges have been able to justify it with the errors competitors have been making in the ssame competition (Asada's win at NHK), but if the field is relatively clean and consistent it will be hard to place Kostner over the Russians, nevermind her tactic is working against her since it is forcing the judges to throw high scores out to technically inferior programs - similar to what happened in 2009-10 with the men when the quad was an endangered species.

[SkateNater]

Who should have won GPF, boo?

Hard to say, because Asada was given wins for really ridiculously bad programs this season and others beating her could have changed who even competed at GPF...

So, no one can realistically answer that question.

Plus, if Lipnitskaya had not gotten injured she probably would have taken the final, anyways.

[SkateNater]

EDIT: This is a respons to the last post by CanadianSkaterGuy



This is a nonsense. She won her GPF gold medal fair and square with a totally superior and fantastic performance. She didn't land 7 triples, right, but who really did? Don't tell me that Michelle Kwan did, because firstly you need to apply the same logic to her performances that you apply when it comes to Mao. Don't take into account Michelle's both flutzes and underrotated jumps and you are left with 3 CLAEN triples in her glorious SOTBS from 2001 Worlds. Mao's skate from GPF was absolutely sensational performance-wise and I have already provided you with numerous reasons for her high PCS scores.

Well, there are many who thought Slutskaya should have won that worlds (and the Olympics, definitely given Sarah Hughe's inability to rotate even half of her jumps fully), so many could care less how well Michelle Kwan "appeared" to skate at 2001 Worlds.

Part of the reason why Michelle Kwan won was the same reasons people are using to justify Asada and Kostner's wins.

I think people are losing sight of the fact that figure skating actually IS a sport. And for that, I've had a change of heart in the past weeks/months of reading this stuff.

I hope the IJS starts rewarding jumps more, adding bonuses to 3/3 combinations, etc. It will combat the PCS inflation of veteran skaters (and National champions of influential nations) and reward those who are pushing the envelop in a more sports[wo]manlike way.

[venlac]

i dont think Asada's this season programs was bad, enjoy to see
But, she continue to win by strong in pcs and low tes score
so I wonder in worlds, she meet with Kostner and yuna, what will happen...

[pangtongfan]

Kim will beat Asada in PCS and Kostner will atleast match her, so if Mao comes out doing only 3 or 4 clean triples she will get her butt kicked. She is not going to be able to rely on some big PCS edge to overcome technical inferiority vs those two like she does vs say Suzuki, not a chance. Even the Russians with their recent improvement, and Wagner if she works her butt off after an embarassing last 2 free skates, will beat her if she continues with what she has done this season so far.

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Well, there are many who thought Slutskaya should have won that worlds (and the Olympics, definitely given Sarah Hughe's inability to rotate even half of her jumps fully), so many could care less how well Michelle Kwan "appeared" to skate at 2001 Worlds.

Part of the reason why Michelle Kwan won was the same reasons people are using to justify Asada and Kostner's wins.

I hope the IJS starts rewarding jumps more, adding bonuses to 3/3 combinations, etc. It will combat the PCS inflation of veteran skaters (and National champions of influential nations) and reward those who are pushing the envelop in a more sports[wo]manlike way.

I'm not sure what you meant? Kwan landed 3L/3T-3T(slightly UR)/3Z-2T/3S/3F/2A/3Z... in one of her best programs. Slutskaya had excellent technical content but lost 7-2 to Michelle because she two-footed her under-rotated 3Z-3L, and under-rotated her 3S-3L, but still a very ambitious program. With Asada/Kostner the opposite is happening... a skater with more triples will end up losing or placing only 1 or 2 points ahead in the FS in spite of Asada/Kostner making errors, thanks to PCS disadvantage. At least when Kwan has done poorly (for her) and lands only 4 or 5 triples, she would actually lose to skaters who complete 6 or 7.

[FlattFan]

Kim will beat Asada in PCS and Kostner will atleast match her, so if Mao comes out doing only 3 or 4 clean triples she will get her butt kicked. She is not going to be able to rely on some big PCS edge to overcome technical inferiority vs those two like she does vs say Suzuki, not a chance.

For the last two seasons, Kostner's PCS have been 5-6 points higher than Mao's in the LP alone.
For the current season best, Kostner's PCS is 4 points higher than Mao's in the LP alone.

I say if Kostner is anywhere near clean, she will have at least a triple jump advantage over Mao's.
Kim and Kostner's PCS will have much smaller gap than these two and Mao's.

I predicted Mao would have to out jump these two to place above them.

[FlattFan]

Hard to say, because Asada was given wins for really ridiculously bad programs this season and others beating her could have changed who even competed at GPF...

So, no one can realistically answer that question.

Plus, if Lipnitskaya had not gotten injured she probably would have taken the final, anyways.

Huh? What? Que?
Based on the GP series, Mao, even with a lost to Suzuki in NHK and a lost to Lipnikskaya, would have made the final. The skaters wouldn't have changed.
Based on the skating in the GPF, Mao would have won in any system. Lipnikskaya would have been destroyed there and probably wouldn't even make Russian National.

[Minze2001]

For the last two seasons, Kostner's PCS have been 5-6 points higher than Mao's in the LP alone.
For the current season best, Kostner's PCS is 4 points higher than Mao's in the LP alone.

I say if Kostner is anywhere near clean, she will have at least a triple jump advantage over Mao's.
Kim and Kostner's PCS will have much smaller gap than these two and Mao's.

I predicted Mao would have to out jump these two to place above them.

Last two seasons mao had bad seasons. She was not in form. but if you compare her PCS with kostner this season they are at the same level. So I dont who know is going to win but if Mao loses it wont be because of PCS

[vera01]

Only reason I'd say that Yuna won't have higher PCS than Mao or Carolina:She has no federation support at all! However, she seems to be capable of getting high TES and PCS Younger skaters are only capable of getting high TES, whereas older skaters get high PCS, but not TES.

[venlac]

Only reason I'd say that Yuna won't have higher PCS than Mao or Carolina:She has no federation support at all! However, she seems to be capable of getting high TES and PCS Younger skaters are only capable of getting high TES, whereas older skaters get high PCS, but not TES.

Kim never had won a competition by pcs rank > tes rank
But now she has the Olympic champion title,
and i think she can win by pcs score.. With the Olympic champion bonus.

[vera01]

Kim never had won a competition by pcs rank > tes rank
But now she has the Olympic champion title,
and i think she can win by pcs score.. With the Olympic champion bonus.

Hmm, I've never thought about Olympic champion bonus

I think she'll manage to get around(for free skating) 70 for her PCS score and also around 70~75 for her TES as long as she skates clean. If Carolina could earn 70 for PCS, I think Yuna can, too.

[lavender]

Not all get that Olympic title bonus but I can see Yu na getting that bonus because she was actually the top skater (along with Mao) at the time.