Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

[Bartek]

You can't say that she would get a "!" and she doesn't flutz. It's like saying "somebody barely completed a jump and would thus get a <". A flutz is a flutz. Her flutz isn't as severe as Michelle's but it's still a flutz (in this LP, I should say). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B625Ey2bwVc (pause at 5:53 where it clearly goes on an inside edge before her skate leaves the ice.

As for Mao's GPF win. There was nothing remarkable about the win, but it was deserved. The PCS was too high considering the mistakes she made, but even if the PCS were reduced she still would have won, so it doesn't affect the outcome. Obviously at NHK it's more of an issue because the results might have been different (and really, should have been).

It was a very shallow inside edge in case of the second lutz but usually she took those off from flat. Nevertheless, she would get "!" instead of "e" supposing she competed under 2008-2010 CoP which meant "unclear edge take-off" whereas "e" meant "clearly wrong edge take-off". As you've admitted, Michelle's flutz was more severe and she would get "e" more frequently than "!". On the other hand, Hughes and Cohen would be bound to get "e".

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Actually low it down, you can see the moment where her left foot is still on the ice her foot is almost a quarter turn on an inside edge. And even if it got an "!" more than an "e", but that still means she is flutzing. You yourself said it was an inside edge... sure, it's shallow, but it's an inside edge... it's not an outside edge or a flat. That is a flutz. It's not as severe as Kwan's but it's still a flutz in this particular performance. Today, she would get an "e", because now judges don't care about the severity of it if it's a flutz. The GOE might not be as negative because it's not as severe a flutz, but it would still be marked down as one -- although the GOE would have been -3 anyways because of the 3-loop (which in slow motion really is just two rotations off the ice... she wasn't even close, but kudos for trying).

But anyways this is getting OT.

[SkateNater]

The topic of 2002 SLC ladies event seems to be coming up frequently but put quite bluntly all 3 U.S skaters were overmarked at that competition and benefited from home ice advantage. Had the Olympics been in Europe and the same programs skated the short program results would have been:

1. Slutskaya
2. Butyrskaya or Kwan (Maria beat Michelle in the SP at the GP final when both were clean and essentialy the same performances as SLC, with Kwan one iffy but acceptable jump, and Maria a bit iffy and slow just like SLC)
4. Cohen (would have deserved 2nd in the SP but been put 4th based on lack of rep)
5. Suguri
6. Sebeysten
7. Hughes (never gets 4th with that lame performance anywhere else)
8. Robinson (maybe even 7th over Hughes)

While the LPs would probably have been:

1. Slutskaya
2. Hughes (probably deserved to win LP, but not skating in final group would have never happened)
3. Suguri or Kwan
5. Cohen
6. Butyrskaya (although she probably skates better LP had she done better in SP)

Final overall standings:

Gold- Slutskaya
Silver- Kwan
Bronze- Hughes
4th- Suguri
5- Cohen
6- Butyrskaya (although as I said who knows how she skates LP had she done better in SP)

Correct. The LP really doesn't matter, though. The only reason why Hughes was able to win was because the judges left a door open for her by undermarking Slutskaya in the SP to put Kwan in first. If Slutskaya had won the SP even winning the FS wouldn't have been enough to Hughes to win because the performances of Butyrskaya/Kwan/Cohen were all not good enough to beat Slute's FS and she would have needed help (sorta like Kwan/Lipinski 1997, where Kwan won the FS but Lipinski still won the gold cause no one else was good enough to beat her in the FS except maybe Slutskaya - but that's a whole different discussion and we've already had enough in this thread :-P)

[pangtongfan]

Correct. The LP really doesn't matter, though. The only reason why Hughes was able to win was because the judges left a door open for her by undermarking Slutskaya in the SP to put Kwan in first. If Slutskaya had won the SP even winning the FS wouldn't have been enough to Hughes to win because the performances of Butyrskaya/Kwan/Cohen were all not good enough to beat Slute's FS and she would have needed help (sorta like Kwan/Lipinski 1997, where Kwan won the FS but Lipinski still won the gold cause no one else was good enough to beat her in the FS except maybe Slutskaya - but that's a whole different discussion and we've already had enough in this thread :-P)

ITA on all.

Back on topic I think the Russian skaters are stronger contenders for Worlds than I had them previously but I still dont think they are medal favorites per say. The favorites in order at this point I would say are:

Kim- heavy gold favorite and medal lock
Kostner- slight silver favorite, gold contender, and probable medalist
Asada- heavy medal favorite, almost equal silver favorite, and outside gold contender

Then after that I see Sotnikova, Elizaveta, Wagner (who has clearly seen her stock go down), and Osmond all roughly equal, with Gold and Suzuki slightly behind all of them. That said I do think it is possible a Russian skater wins the bronze at Worlds this year. They are not who Kostner has to worry about if she has designs on defending her gold. If she finishes below a Russian skater it means she is almost certainly off the podium entirely.

[hanca]

Surely you must see that silver and bronze medallist at Europeans are more likely to medal at worlds than ladies who are 5th and 8th at SP in 4CC? I am curious why you think that Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have the same chance of medal as Osmond (and Gold just slightly behind them)?

[Icey]

Maybe she can hold them off this year, but very uncertain about the Olympics.