Can Kostner hold off Russian babies?

[macy]

Spins
Kostner > Kim > Asada

there's no way. mao tops both yuna and caro in spins, they're BEAUTIFUL and fast and she has wonderful extension. kostner has relatively slow spins with not very good positions IMO (her layback and catch foot for example), and yuna also has positions that could be better (layback freeleg).

but it really comes down to who has a bad day and who doesn't. all three of them have to seriously bring it because they all are capable of achieving high scores, but if all of them were to skate clean, i think yuna would still win because she is the favorite and IMO her jumps are the best and have the most depth, but second would be really close. mao and carolina both have wonderful longs this year. i can't even decide.

[prettykeys]

there's no way. mao tops both yuna and caro in spins, they're BEAUTIFUL and fast and she has wonderful extension. kostner has relatively slow spins with not very good positions IMO (her layback and catch foot for example), and yuna also has positions that could be better (layback freeleg).

I agree with you; it was the only point in CanadianSkaterGuy's analysis that I disagreed with. Mao has the better spins over Carolina and YuNa. YuNa was good at getting Level 4 spins despite the room to make improvements, but right now she hasn't regained her full back flexibility yet.

[Skater Boy]

Kostner has it in the bag. The judges love her sometimes a little too much. She can beat the Russian babies but can she beat Yuna. I still think Kostner is overrated. Her skating skills are not comparable to Takahashi or Chan yet she is treated like she is the greatest thing since spandex or flesh colored tights. I think you have to worry most about Ashley Wagner rather than Osmond. As for Korpi - she is a beautiful girl but I hope she doesn't medal Somehow I find the finnish girls awfully lucky. Lepisto eeked out a bronze that I think could have gone to the no 4 lady or even Phanuef in 2010.

[gmyers]

NHK trophy Mao had a bad day. But look at her performance at the GPF final, she was not given the scores she was the best that night. The claim that she is giving high PCS because she is been around time can be said about other skaters.

Bad day at NHK? It was just a little worse the cup of china. She has ured several jumps a every competition and the gpf. It is the worst season of her career for jumps. Every competition she has entered and won because she's undefeated is an argument for jumps not matterin anymore.

[Krislite]

[...]
2A, Asada > Kim > Kostner
[...]
Spins
Kostner > Kim > Asada

I'd reverse the spins order (Mao > Kim > Kostner) and put Kim ahead in 2A. Her 2A is superior to either Kostner or Asada. It's much bigger and more fluid than either skater's, and she can do it out of an Ina Bauer or spread eagle and consistently combine it with a 3T.

[shine]

Kostner has it in the bag. The judges love her sometimes a little too much. She can beat the Russian babies but can she beat Yuna. I still think Kostner is overrated. Her skating skills are not comparable to Takahashi or Chan yet she is treated like she is the greatest thing since spandex or flesh colored tights. I think you have to worry most about Ashley Wagner rather than Osmond. As for Korpi - she is a beautiful girl but I hope she doesn't medal Somehow I find the finnish girls awfully lucky. Lepisto eeked out a bronze that I think could have gone to the no 4 lady or even Phanuef in 2010.

Although I have no idea why the heck we are comparing Kostner to MALE skaters, I would say her skating skills are the greatest that I've ever seen from a ladies skater and better than Takahashi's.

And if I remember correctly, her PCS really hasn't been that inflated (if at all) compared to the top skaters in other desciplines. Except for Euros, her scores have mostly been capped around the low 8s, and sometimes she even gets high 7s. I'm not sure what you are complaining about.

[Skater Boy]

I would venture to agree with chuckm. Yuna and Carolina will be on the podium though I do think it is possible Wagner or even Suzuki could sneak in for a silver over one of them one of them is a bit shakey. I am biased and I do not find Carolina as impressive as a lot of people including her skating skills. I don't find her a natural musically and when she is off she is way off though I rarely see her get crucified for it. Mao is a huge questionmark. She really has not developed as hoped or redeveloped her jumps and really is getting a bit stale. So I enjoy Gold, Osmond and the baby Russian bringing new blood. I really hope that someone skates well enough so we don't end up like 2010 with someone like Lepisto on the podium. Nothing aginst Laura but she was really lucky in a weak year (and he fact that slighlty different judges could have put Phaneuf or someone ahead of her (I am sorry I don't remember who was in fourth.

[hurrah]

I'd say Carolina, Yuna and Mao all have the potential to win gold in that as of now, they already possess the PCS so it comes down to who can jump the most on that day.

I think PCS-wise, with the programs that they have this, Mao would score the highest in PCS overall.

Skating Skills
In terms of skating skills, Carolina has superior power compared to Yuna and Mao, but Mao has vastly improved her ability to power skate since going to Mr. Sato, and the difference is not as much as it used to be. Mao's ability for multidirectional skating however, is far superior to Carolina or Yuna, and I doubt that either two will be able to vastly improve this aspect of their skating from here to Sochi.

Transitions
Mao's program has the most transitions compared to Carolina and Yuna. Carolina telegraphs. Yuna may increase her transitions next season, but her program this year is less than what she had before her break.

Performance/Execution
Carolina is really beautiful on the ice but she actually isn't too good at moving with music, at least not as great as Yuna or Mao. Yuna is good for her ability to use her shoulders and face to accent certain moments of her program, but Mao's ability to move her body with the music is far superior.

Choreography
Can't say which is best. Not sure about which program has the best ice coverage, but they all seem good.

Interpretation
All three are good.

With jumps, Yuna's toe jumps are the best. With Carolina, she has brought back the flip and lutz this year but it's still not that stable and she still telegraphs. Mao's toe jumps are work in progress, but it is feasible that she will have mastered her new flip technique completely by Sochi. She apparently is practicing all kinds of 3-3 now.

With salchow, Carolina's salchow is the best. Yuna has a so-so salchow. Mao's salchow used to be bad but this season's salchow technique is very good. Her salchow at Nationals was beautiful.

With loop, Carolina's loop is huge and beautiful, but Mao's is also very good and she gets good GOEs on them. Yuna doesn't do loops.

With 2-axel, point-wise, Mao and Yuna get similar points with Carolina (I think? not sure) getting less points, but the difference is negligent, I think??

One thing that Mao potentially has over Yuna and Carolina is the triple-axel, which she has demonstrated that she can still do in practice, now with improved technique. So if Mao can bring back the triple-axel into the program by Sochi, that will give Mao an advantage.

[figureskate]

Her skating skills are not comparable to Takahashi or Chan yet she is treated like she is the greatest thing since spandex or flesh colored tights.

There's so much I can't understand in this sentence, but truly colored tights are not a great thing

Anyway, I do hope that Liza and Adelina didn't focus all of their physical preparation for skating the best at nationals and euros and will be on top form at worlds. They will both need to skate clean if they want to beat not just Carolina, but also Mao and Yuna (if any of these three skates barely clean they will be in front in any case, imo)

I am so worried about Akiko's recent outcomes, I hope she can get her consistency back in time.

[christinaskater]

If Akiko skates her 2 programs to it's potential, she has the potential to be World Champion!

As of now- this is how it looks like.

Yu-Na Kim
Carolina Kostner
Mao Asada.
Akiko Suzuki
Ashley Wagner
Adelina Sotnikova
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Gracie Gold.
Kaetlyn Osmond.
Kanako Murakami.


It's getting pretty crowded on the top!

[Reginald]

If Akiko skates her 2 programs to it's potential, she has the potential to be World Champion!

As of now- this is how it looks like.

Yu-Na Kim
Carolina Kostner
Mao Asada.
Akiko Suzuki
Ashley Wagner
Adelina Sotnikova
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
Gracie Gold.
Kaetlyn Osmond.
Kanako Murakami.


It's getting pretty crowded on the top!

Next year, add Julia Lipnitskaia into the mix, and the Olympic field could be a shark tank!

[Bartek]

3Z, Kim > Kostner (just got it back) >> Asada (still flutzes and doubles occasionally)
3F, Kim > Kostner > Asada (while Kostner and Kim have better technique and speed on their flip, Asada is consistently given good GOE for it, though... I give edge to Kim because she's able to tack on a 3T to hers, which is an advantage)
3L, Kostner >> Asada (Kostner has nicer transitions and better height and speed, Asada's is consistent, Kim doesn't attempt it so she really shouldn't be compared)
3S, Kostner = Kim >> Asada (Kostner has a nice salchow, but so does Kim, both do two of them, Asada's 3S is her worst)
XX-3T, Kim >>> Kostner > Asada (Kim is the only one who can reliably do her 3T in combos without UR... Kostner has a good 3T but sometimes makes errors, Asada often UR's it in combination with 2A)
2A, Asada > Kim > Kostner

Choreography/Performance
Kim > Kostner > Asada

Spins
Kostner > Kim > Asada

Consistency
Kim > Asada > Kostner

At this point I think Kim is obviously the one to beat and Kostner and Asada will duel it out for silver/bronze. Even though I think Kostner has better jumps than Asada, Asada is slightly more consistent and still gets similar GOE as Kostner. A huge advantage is in Kim's ability to tack on 3T to her flip/lutz/2A.

Your evaluation is ridiculous.

Asada has superior program to both Kostner and Kim this season as far as choreograpy and transitions go. Thanks to her line and posture she matches the theme of the music perfectly. Her movements are graceful and throughout the whole program accentute the changes in music doing all the subtle moves that Tarasova put there. The whole thing is fantastically thought-out by the choreographer. There's no telegraphing or too much stroking, jumps are packed one after another which gives more place for wonderful choreographic moments like the slow section with spread eagles or "balletic turns" incorporated to the ice right at the end of the program.

SS --> This one is difficult. Kim is probably the most "all-around" skater here. Kostner has the best edges but is not as fast as she used to be. Asada has fantastic flow and soft movement across the ice and gains speed doing forward crossovers as easily as when doing backward ones. That is her advandage over Kim and Kostner who gains speed mainly with only backward crossovers. Asada has a lot more one-foot skating as well. Kim has both Kostner's speed and Asada's flow. All in all, I would still give the edge to Kostner.
Kostner > Asada = Kim

Spins --> I have no idea how you could put Asada in the last place since she has probably the best spins out there in ladies' skating since Alissa is gone. Lipnitskaya maybe on par. By far better positions than both Kim and Kostner. Kostner travels at times, Asada does not. Kim is relatively fast but has rather poor positions. Both Kostner and Kim lacks Biellman positions and cannot bring their layback to level 4.
Asada > Kostner = Kim

Steps --> This seasons Asada's footwork is a piece of art musically and performance-wise, simultaneously having all the steps and turns for level 4. So many details like her stop in the middle accentuating the music or right at the end changes of edge with her arm above her head, again perfectly matched with the music. She does it with energy and joy.
Asada > Kostner > Kim

Transitions --> Asada easily wins that one. Every jump apart from 2A+3T is preceeded by some steps or turns, not of the highest difficulty but fantastic quality. Program is not overloaded with stroking to gain speed, she has to gain it bit those turns and steps. Besides, a lot of little spread eagles, ina bauers, spirals. Kostner doesn't have anyting going into first three jumping passes. No transitions into her jumps at all. There is only one difficult exit out of her lutz but the jump itself is terribly telegraphed. No telegraphing in Asada's program. Notice what both Kostner and Kim does before their lutzes. They do crossovers aside the egde of the rink to gain the speed, then skate through the whole rink approaching the jump, Kostner doing absolutely nothing, Kim doing a turn. Now, let's look at Asada's set up. She goes directly from the entrance of her flip to this "through the whole rink" part and does just two crossovers, then does the jump and performs difficult exit by lifting her leg above the hip level. Similar situation with the flips. Both Kostner and Kim does a lot of crossovers and then skate straight through the whole rink. While approaching her 3F+2Lo combo, Asada does JUST 2 crossovers and then turns on one foot several times and by the time she takes off the jump she has little speed, hence the problems with underrotation. Kim has few transitions but certainly more than Kostner. Difficult exit after her solo triple lutz, spread eagle entrance to 2A combination. Kostner has virtually nothing directly in or out of her jumps except the turn after landing the lutz.
Asada > Kim > Kostner

When it comes to putting the triple toe at the end of a combination, it's ridiculous that you put Kostner above Asada! You consider Kostner who has not landed ANYTHING with the triple toe at the end this season to be superior to Asada who on regular basis has been landing 2A+3T the whole season! Right, Asada had it underrotated at her first two competitions but at GPF and Japan Nationals it was huge and ratified. Kostner has only showed her combos in practice and this is certainly not enough to even make the comparison with Asada's combos done out there on the ice under competitive pressure. Again, landing jumps during practice is one thing and doing them at competition is another story. Slutskaya is reported to have landed 3S+3L+0,5L+3S, Asada 4Lo, Arakawa 3S+3T+3Lo. Never were those jumps performed in competitions. Let's take into consideration what we have seen on the competitive ice. I know that Carolina's combos look great in practice and there is every likelihood she will include a triple-triple in her program but it remains yet to be seen. Recent practice reports have shown that Asada's 3A is very good. She landed several clean ones during official practice at Japan Nationals. She may attempt it at 4CC. Kim has obviously the edge with triple-triple combinations and probably neither Kostner, nor Asada will ever catch up with her.

Asada got 129,5 points at GPF with mistakes. If she goes clean she has all the potential to score 140 which is probably the same as clean Kim could score.

[Skater Boy]

I have to say I think Yuna is still the frontrunner then Kostner for now and finally Asada - she has been so vulnerable. I think part of the problem is her jumps - not just the technique but she has yet to master them yet she keeps changing the focus so to speak. Are you doing a clean skate with no edge calls without the 3A; do you drop the lutz or what?

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

When it comes to putting the triple toe at the end of a combination, it's ridiculous that you put Kostner above Asada! You consider Kostner who has not landed ANYTHING with the triple toe at the end this season to be superior to Asada who on regular basis has been landing 2A+3T the whole season! Right, Asada had it underrotated at her first two competitions but at GPF and Japan Nationals it was huge and ratified. Kostner has only showed her combos in practice and this certainly not enough to even make the comparison with Asada's combos done out there on the ice under competitive pressure.

I can concede that many of Mao's spins are great, although I much prefer the extension Kostner's flying camel (which is better than Mao's) and Yu Na's combination and flying spins. Mao does have a nice layback, and Yu Na's is better when she's capable of adding a Biellmann. Kostner's layback is her weakest, so maybe I should have put Kim first and then Mao and then Kostner (since the other two don't really have a 'weak' spin). Mao also travels during some of her spins, just look at her freeskate at Japan Nationals.

I think Mao's inconsistency will be the main thing that holds her back from winning the World title - particularly on the 3Z and 3S. Her flip and loop are money for her, but those two question marks and potential under-rotation on her 2A-3T might be her downfall.

Speaking of which, Kostner is capable of a clean 3T-3T, much more than Asada, who has cleanly landed her 2A-3T at Japanese Nationals and NHK. I question Mao's ability to add a fully-rotated triple to any jump in combination, whereas at least Kostner has a shot at it. I can bet that at World's it will be under-rotated but hopefully she can get it sorted. BTW, Mao's 2A-3T at the GPF was not ratified... it was under-rotated and was marked down as such (http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf). Mao also missed it at the 2012 Japan Open doing 2A-2T, and at Cup of China it was 2A-3T<<. Hardly landing it "the whole season".

[chuckm]

Seems Asada's 2a+3t was fully rotated this year only when she was skating in Japan. I guess that means it will be ratified again at 4CC.