Will Asada have the 3A for Worlds?

[chuckm]

I did notice in looking up the protocols that the only two 2a+3t ratified were at NHK in 2011 and 2012. The other 4 were either UR or DG. I also noticed the 3f<s and several 3f+2lo+2lo<. Mao has a general UR problem that can surface with almost any of her jumps. She also has a tendency to pop triples to doubles or singles.

I agree she will be in tough company with Kim and Kostner at Worlds and PCS won't save her against them; she was 6th at Worlds 2012 because of the fall on the 3a<< in the SP and two pops, a UR and a doubled jump in the FS. She couldn't beat Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova and Murakami last year; if she tries and fails the 3a again, some of them may beat her this year as well.

IMO, she will do OK at 4CC because it's home ice and she's not facing any PCS monsters.

[Selene]

So figure skating is all about the jumps? Besides NHK, which has been discussed ad nauseum, which competition did she not deserve to win so far? If non-jump elements/presentation aren't being rewarded, then there's no incentive for younger skaters to polish those skills since all they have to do is to jump well.

No, figure skating is not "all about the jumps." But I think that difficult jumps/jump combinations aren't being adequately rewarded in Ladies figure skating. I think Mao Asada has great skating skills, artistry and spins. But her jumping ability is so sub-par that she should not be able to win senior-level ISU competitions. At least Carolina Kostner goes for a triple-triple combination in her short program and has a true lutz. Mao has poor jump technique, is a flutzer, chronically underrotates jumps, can't land triple-triples, etc.

I did notice in looking up the protocols that the only two 2a+3t ratified were at NHK in 2011 and 2012. The other 4 were either UR or DG. I also noticed the 3f<s and several 3f+2lo+2lo<. Mao has a general UR problem that can surface with almost any of her jumps. She also has a tendency to pop triples to doubles or singles.

I agree she will be in tough company with Kim and Kostner at Worlds and PCS won't save her against them; she was 6th at Worlds 2012 because of the fall on the 3a<< in the SP and two pops, a UR and a doubled jump in the FS. She couldn't beat Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova and Murakami last year; if she tries and fails the 3a again, some of them may beat her this year as well.

IMO, she will do OK at 4CC because it's home ice and she's not facing any PCS monsters.

She will win the 4CC because it's in Japan. The technical caller will probably give her credit for all of her cheated jumps, too. As I stated in an earlier post, the technical callers in Japan are the only ones giving her credit for her underrotated jumps.

[venlac]

I did notice in looking up the protocols that the only two 2a+3t ratified were at NHK in 2011 and 2012. The other 4 were either UR or DG. I also noticed the 3f<s and several 3f+2lo+2lo<. Mao has a general UR problem that can surface with almost any of her jumps. She also has a tendency to pop triples to doubles or singles.

I agree she will be in tough company with Kim and Kostner at Worlds and PCS won't save her against them; she was 6th at Worlds 2012 because of the fall on the 3a<< in the SP and two pops, a UR and a doubled jump in the FS. She couldn't beat Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova and Murakami last year; if she tries and fails the 3a again, some of them may beat her this year as well.

IMO, she will do OK at 4CC because it's home ice and she's not facing any PCS monsters.

Mao Asada with Yuna always there was not a big difference in pcs, and was big difference in tes.

who have been recieved highest pcs in the Grand Prix series this season is mao asada.
like cup of china, although she receive downgrade more than half the triple jumps still, to be able to win.
1. 4cc in japan
JSU is very kind to her.
2. she is strong in pcs always.

[mary01]

She has underrotated the triple toe loop in combination with the double axel pretty much every time she's attempted it this season. Her triple flip is also chronically underrotated. The technical callers in Japan are the only ones giving her credit for her cheated jumps.

So, do I think Mao has the ability to fully rotate a 3A? No, all the attempts I have seen (from the videos of her practices) have been underrotated. And she can't even fully rotate lesser triples these days.




I don't think Mao can beat Kostner or Kim at Worlds. She can't beat those skaters based on PCS, which his how she has been winning over other skaters this season. And Kostner and Kim are both much better jumpers than Mao is, with high quality jumps and the ability to do triple-triples. Mao is a beautiful, artistic skater, but her wins this season are setting figure skating back. Her jump content/ability isn't even worthy of winning on the junior level.

the technical caller in japan? so japan hires it's own tech caller at nationals and ISU events, why don't you take a look at each competition she participated in and see who the technical caller was, if we have to follow your logic then the outcome would not have made sense.

it's funny how you mention Kim and Carolina as if they had flawless skates, should i remind you of of the falls (kim) popped jumps (kostner) and all the other issues they have showed at each competition they participated in. there mistakes were disturbing the whole performance, and what makes you think that those mistakes wont be repeated again. I seriously don't see why the likes of kostner and Kim would have an edge over Mao based on what I have seen them perform.

[chuckm]

Both Kostner and Kim have 3/3s, and Mao has had more failed 2a+3t than she's landed. She's planning to add a 3a with which she's had a 12% success rate over the past 3 years, and she has a history of popped and underrotated jumps. All three ladies have strong PCS scores, but Kostner and Kim are more consistent skaters than Mao; they are far more likely to get higher TES than she.

[mary01]

My negativity with respect to the 3a and 2a+3t is based on her competition record with those jumps. She has a low success rate with both, but the 3a has been far less successful.

So let me understand your point of view, when you look at statistic you capture every missed attempt but deny every attempt succeeded ever happened,what a nice way to twist reality the way one wants it to be!

[l'etoile]

OMG, mary01, chuckm clearly stated she has 12% of 3a success rate. If that isn't recognizing Mao indeed succeeded in 3a sometimes, what is it?

[Minze2001]

No, figure skating is not "all about the jumps." But I think that difficult jumps/jump combinations aren't being adequately rewarded in Ladies figure skating. I think Mao Asada has great skating skills, artistry and spins. But her jumping ability is so sub-par that she should not be able to win senior-level ISU competitions. At least Carolina Kostner goes for a triple-triple combination in her short program and has a true lutz. Mao has poor jump technique, is a flutzer, chronically underrotates jumps, can't land triple-triples, etc.



She will win the 4CC because it's in Japan. The technical caller will probably give her credit for all of her cheated jumps, too. As I stated in an earlier post, the technical callers in Japan are the only ones giving her credit for her underrotated jumps.

You lost me when you said she should not be winning senior level competitions. Go back to her competitions this seasin and please tell me who should have won. So Mao is expected to be perfect? Interesting

[Minze2001]

By the way this thread was about Mao bringing back her 3a. But of course some people had to make it a negative mao is the worst thread

[vera01]

She probably won't have it ready for worlds but she'll go for it no matter what. Does she need it? No, but I don't think she's doing it because of high BV. Mao is (was) known for her 3 axels and she may feel the pressure from others to do it. I remember japanese media were like crazy when she tried those at some practises. Mao also said once that a triple axel was her mother's favourite jump, it may mean a lot for her.
A triple axel is definitely not necessary for Mao to win. What she needs is
1. A 100% clean skate. Well, one flutz is allowed
2. A mistake from Yuna (sad but true)
3. Maybe a triple-triple.
I'd like Mao to concentrate on triple-triples because it would be more reliable and just more secure to perform. Still, a clean program with no 3-3 is better than the one with that combination full of UR's and doubles instead of triples.

She needs to fulfill that 1. and 2. if she wants gold medal. Mao with a squeaky-clean 2 programs should beat Yuna with a mistake. But if they both skate clean, Yuna might win.

Judges barely give any -GOEs for a flutz/lip-they just give 0 or -1. So a Mao with a flutz but no other mistakes should score very high, probably around 135~145..

[Cherryy]

She needs to fulfill that 1. and 2. if she wants gold medal. Mao with a squeaky-clean 2 programs should beat Yuna with a mistake. But if they both skate clean, Yuna might win.

Judges barely give any -GOEs for a flutz/lip-they just give 0 or -1. So a Mao with a flutz but no other mistakes should score very high, probably around 135~145..

If she goes clean it's definitely 140 at least, so the 3rd point is not so necessary. I wonder if just one mistake from Yuna would be enough because the advantage she will have after SP is going to be huuuuge. And we all know it's not likely for Mao to skate clean. On the other hand a 3rd place finish seems pretty doable.

[hurrah]

Mao clearly stated in several post-GPF interviews that she wants to put 3-axel in both SP and LP this season. When she was commentating for Nagoya Festival 2013, Coach Yamada said that she thought that the 3-axel might not be ready by 4CC but would be by Worlds. So I think the intention is clearly there, to put in a 3-axel in both SP and LP at Worlds this season. I guess everyone will have a better idea where her 3-axel is at after 4CC.

I'm kind of worried about Mao's 3-flip. It seems like they are really pushing on perfecting her flip, and at both Nagoya Festival and Japan Super Challenge, it seemed that she was attempting to increase her take-off speed significantly, and thus popping/under-rotating her flip. I know that these 'growning pains' are unavoidable, but they are risking her chances of winning the Worlds.

Even if Mao gets her 3-axel ready by Worlds, without her flip, I don't think she is assured gold without mistakes from other skaters. Of course, most skaters do make a mistake or two or three more often than not. But still....

Well, even if Mao doesn't win gold, the likelihood of her being on the podium is quite high, I feel.

[chuckm]

Looking back at Mao's entire career, from 2003 through 2013:

She began attempting the 3a at 2004 JW.

Overall, Mao has had 46 3a attempts in her career.

Of the 46 3a: rotated and landed 19 (41%); popped 12 (26%); UR 11 (24%); Downgrades 4 (9%)

In the period beginning March 2004 and ending at the 2010 Olympics (Feb 2010) she attempted 30 3a.
Note: URs (<) were shown on protocols beginning in the 2007-2008 season)
Of the 30 3a: rotated and landed 17 (56%); popped 7 (23%); UR 6 (20%)

As noted in my previous post, from the post-Olympic period from Worlds 2010 through the 2012 GP, Mao attempted the 3a 16 times
Of the 16 3a: rotated and landed 2 (12%); popped 5 (31%); UR 5 (31%); Downgrades 4 (25%)

Mao was successfully landing the in the period leading up to and including the 2010 Olympics. After that, she was much less successful.

[ayayukiituka]

She tried 3A in Nagoya and downgraded it heavily, two-footed. Exactly the same thing happened in front of my nose at SOI in Tokyo in SP- downgraded and two-footed. But it's not even the main concern. After that failed 3A all her jump passes went wrong. I wrote the details on Show thread. What I am saying is her badly executed 3A can put her off and she will make other mistakes. Considerig that her jumps are not her super best point, for now, maybe she shouldn't try 3A if it's so unsecure. Another thing if she becomes more consistent, but I haven't heard of that, recently.

Haha so funny. You mentioned the one at Nagoya Festival ( ice show) and the rink is so close to the audience. You can't actually see how good she's doing in her run-throughs. Plus,I don't think her performance level goes down when she fails 3A. Even at NHK trophy,her non-jump elements got level 4s.

[hikki]

Latest practice at 4CC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeUTb...ature=youtu.be

I know it's only practice, and that she needs to focus first on fully rotating the other triples, but there's something so special about seeing her 3A