Will Asada have the 3A for Worlds? | Golden Skate

Will Asada have the 3A for Worlds?

russell30

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 14, 2004
Will Mao have the triple axel for World's?

Will she need it to Win her third World Crown?

Her Swan Lake FS is probably one of her best, so will she go for quality than quantity.

your thoughts!!
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
I dont think she will have the triple axel. I hope she has a 3 3. I agree that she will need one to win gold but not to medal . I do get ghe sense that Mao's end goal by reworking her jumps is 2014 olympics. Of course she would like to win her 3 world title, but I think her hope is perfect jumps by Sochi
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
Oh, man, wouldn't that be wonderful.

I'll never forget her sheer grit in the 2010 Olympics, putting in two triple axels in the long program even knowing how "on" YuNa was. I'd love to see her find that zone again and prove everyone wrong about her current potential.
 

mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
I strongly believe so, the 3A's she showed in practice at japan nationals were absolutely stunning. so if her 3A are looking just as good at 4CC/Worlds practice then I think it's time for her to put them back in her programs. But I don't think she needs it to win Worlds this year, her FS is already packed with content and includes 7 triples.
 

Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
"The Swan Lake" is already a very difficult program. I think she has to focus on fully rotating all her seven planned triples.
 

figureskate

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 7, 2011
A flawless skate is what Mao needs for winning a world title, but I think she will go for a triple axel at least in the free skate, hoping that won't take too much energy out of her for the rest of the program. Probably she is going to test it at 4ccs
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
IMO, no, she won't. I won't say "she did a 3A at practice, she can do it at competition!". Even Gracie and Liza(though they did it year or two ago) can jump 3A at practice, but they're not doing 3A at competitions.

But even if she does jump 3A, remember how Yuna won the Olympics. Mao did 3A there and Yuna was still 20 points ahead of her. I doubt Mao would win this year's WC gold-she won GPF, but that was a GPF without Carolina or Yuna. I think she can beat Carolina since Carolina doesn't have many triple jumps. But Yuna? Unless she manages to make one or two major mistakes and Mao skates clean, no. Thus she can win the world title with her program without 3A, but only if Yuna makes mistakes.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
Regardless of its consistency, I suspect she will attempt it. Her chances of getting no UR? Less than 50% I'd say. The 3Axel has eluded her in recent years.

Where she really needs the 3Axel is in the SP. But that's also where it's riskier to go for it. Many of the top contenders will be doing 3/3's in the SP and she'll be left far behind if she sticks with her current layout.
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Krislite said:
Where she really needs the 3Axel is in the SP. But that's also where it's riskier to go for it. Many of the top contenders will be doing 3/3's in the SP and she'll be left far behind if she sticks with her current layout.

And behind whom? Of course there's Yuna, but besides that... most woman are doing 3T-3T now (Caro, Akiko, Adelina, Kaetlyn,...). That's 8.2 points. Mao's 3F-2Lo gives her 7.1, that's just a difference of 1.1. Except for Caro, Mao equals that out with the PCS already (and for Caro, she makes up some ground again with her better spnis). So the only real threads are those girls going for 3F-3T or 3Lz-3T - and that's so rare today. The only ones I can think of now are Liza and Gracie, and still I'm not too sure they'd beat Mao (non-jump elements + spins).

The only two skaters that will beat Mao if she's clean are Yuna and Caro. That's not really being buried :)
 

let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
She tried 3A in Nagoya and downgraded it heavily, two-footed. Exactly the same thing happened in front of my nose at SOI in Tokyo in SP- downgraded and two-footed. But it's not even the main concern. After that failed 3A all her jump passes went wrong. I wrote the details on Show thread. What I am saying is her badly executed 3A can put her off and she will make other mistakes. Considerig that her jumps are not her super best point, for now, maybe she shouldn't try 3A if it's so unsecure. Another thing if she becomes more consistent, but I haven't heard of that, recently.
 

skatel80

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
Im not sure... I think we will know at 4ccs, If she tries it at 4ccs she will probably try it at worlds but if not I cant see her trying it. I would like if she did it, those ones she did on practice at the japanese championships were great:)
 

yuki

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 2, 2012
Regardless of its consistency, I suspect she will attempt it. Her chances of getting no UR? Less than 50% I'd say. The 3Axel has eluded her in recent years.

I remember that at last year's Worlds she attempted the 3A in both programs, even though she hadn't landed any clean ones in practice - so I suspect that she will attempt it no matter what. I agree that she should probably attempt in in the SP (even though it's riskier) and focus on executing her LP cleanly. It will be clearer where she is now, jump-wise, after 4CC.

After that failed 3A all her jump passes went wrong.

This is what I'm afraid of every time I hear she's planning the 3A and it makes me worried for her at Worlds this year. :( Maybe the last two Worlds weren't that important, but this year she has to place well in order to set herself up for the next season and the Olympics; she can't really afford another 6th place finish.
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
And behind whom? Of course there's Yuna, but besides that... most woman are doing 3T-3T now (Caro, Akiko, Adelina, Kaetlyn,...). That's 8.2 points. Mao's 3F-2Lo gives her 7.1, that's just a difference of 1.1. Except for Caro, Mao equals that out with the PCS already (and for Caro, she makes up some ground again with her better spnis). So the only real threads are those girls going for 3F-3T or 3Lz-3T - and that's so rare today. The only ones I can think of now are Liza and Gracie, and still I'm not too sure they'd beat Mao (non-jump elements + spins).

The only two skaters that will beat Mao if she's clean are Yuna and Caro. That's not really being buried :)

Liza, Adelina and Kaetlyn (and even Akiko) are potentially within striking distance, I'm afraid. I doubt PCS would be enough to cushion her in the SP. This is their first Senior Worlds so I'm not sure how far up their PCS will go, but generally the younger skaters tend to see a higher PCS increase over their debut season when they're doing well.
 

Cherryy

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
She probably won't have it ready for worlds but she'll go for it no matter what. Does she need it? No, but I don't think she's doing it because of high BV. Mao is (was) known for her 3 axels and she may feel the pressure from others to do it. I remember japanese media were like crazy when she tried those at some practises. Mao also said once that a triple axel was her mother's favourite jump, it may mean a lot for her.
A triple axel is definitely not necessary for Mao to win. What she needs is
1. A 100% clean skate. Well, one flutz is allowed ;)
2. A mistake from Yuna (sad but true)
3. Maybe a triple-triple.
I'd like Mao to concentrate on triple-triples because it would be more reliable and just more secure to perform. Still, a clean program with no 3-3 is better than the one with that combination full of UR's and doubles instead of triples.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
I agree she'll need it for the SP but not necessarily to place well for the entire competition. She will only risk being behind if everyone who has a more difficult content in the SP goes clean, which can happen but rarely does. I think it's much more important for her to go clean in the short than risk it as she had done at Worlds in the last two years. It is the year before Olympics so it's important for her to place on the podium.
 

inskate

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 27, 2007
Personally, I'd prefer if Mao concentrated on perfecting her programs and, if there's enough time, getting a 3F-3T. Her base triples have been showing a steady improvement since the beginning of the season, and 2A-3T consistency became quite impressive considering the fact she took a lot of time off this off-season. Given the hip/back injury that bothered her this season, I'd rather see her stick to the current jumping layout than to get injured right before the Olympic season.

That said, Mao stated that by Words she'd like to have either 3A or a 3-3 in both of her programs, and usually if she commits to a certain strategy, she doesn't go back on her word (unless detracted by injury or other unforeseen circumstances, knock on wood).

vera01 said:
But even if she does jump 3A, remember how Yuna won the Olympics. Mao did 3A there and Yuna was still 20 points ahead of her.

At that time, Mao had no 3Lz or 3S in her programs, tripped before her 3T and skipped it altogether, and every 3F she landed received some negative GoE from the judges. If it weren't for her triple axels, she wouldn't medal. I've seen some people accuse her of spending too much time working on 3A before the Olympics, but actually, according to a documentary aired after the Olys, Mao spent the most time working on her 3F. There was no time to rework her jumps completely (as it could take 2-4 seasons), so she just stuck to getting 3F solid enough to put into her programs and try to close the point gap left by excluding 3Lz and 3S by doing 3 triple axels.

let`s talk said:
She tried 3A in Nagoya and downgraded it heavily, two-footed.

It's rather difficult to judge the stability of the jump basing on the performance in shows where the rink size is decreased and/or the show lights make it tricky to attempt upper-tier jumps. A lot of Japanese skaters didn't give their best performances during those shows. And then there's the issue of choreo - after the Nationals Mao said she planned to visit Lori to improve the choreo and make her jumping passes more comfortable to include a 3A or 3-3.

Personally, more than 3A or lack of thereof, I'm worried about Mao's tight schedule (Nats, JSC, shows, shows, shows, a trip to Canada, 4CC...). Her main competitors will be much better rested in time for Worlds, and in the recent years Mao had a tendency to peak at 4CC. I'm not sure it was wise from JSF to assign Mao, Akiko and Daisuke to 4CC...
 

Serious Business

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 7, 2011
Asada will absolutely need a 3A or 3/3 to win Worlds. She's done very well this season winning everything she entered so far. But Worlds is where everybody steps their game up, and Asada's jumps hasn't really been up to snuff. Plus, there's the matter of Yuna Kim, who doesn't seem to have missed a beat, coming back. The top contenders are all hungry killers. They will all assume that the others will bust out the big guns, so they are going to bring their own. It's an arms race and the motto is BYOB (Bring Your Own Bomb) if you want to win. Can Asada do it? I doubt it.
 

Cherryy

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 27, 2012
Well, IF Mao skates clean she can get 140+ in the LP.
Her GPF score was almost 130. She underrotated her 2A-3T for which she got 5.9. At NHK she got 8.6 for it, so here we have a 2.7 point difference. She also underrotated her 3F and got 3.5 for it while at NHK it was 6.1 whick gives us 2.6 points more. She doubled a salchow that received 1.3 points, a triple one she performed in China got 4.9, here we get 3.6 points. Summing up, if we substitute her jumping passes that went wrong at GPF with the correctly performed ones at other events this season we get a score of 138.9. She could obviously get a bit higher PCS since it'll be the end of the season and she could improve also on these aspects and get better GOE on other elements so that her final score would be 140+.
Now, if she is to jump a 3A, where would it be? Probably instead of a 2A-3T since she has been doing practises of her LP with 3A there. It can't be instead of her first jump, 3L because there's too little time for her to prepare for the big thing. The best she ever performed was about 9 points for her triple axel and we all know she's nowhere nere nailing it as she did at Olympics. Then she could make a combo with a 3T, probably 3F-3T so that she would have additionally about 5 points more for the combo and 0.4 for the axel instead of 2A-3T. So theoretically, she could earn 5.4 here and that would give a score of 144.3. But now let's face the truth. Her most recent good attempt at a triple axel was at 2012 4cc LP where she got 4.7 for it. There's no sense to perform it, it just takes too much time and her score with such an axel and a good 3-3 would be 140. So just 1.1 points more than a perfect program with no triple-triple and no 3A, just 2A-3T and 3F.
If she was to add a 3-3 where do you think it would be? In my opinion Mao would probably upgrade her solo 3F to 3F-3T but then she would have to eliminate one combination and all 3 worth a lot of points. Because I can't imagine her doing a 3F-3T as her last jumping pass even though that would be extremely cool! So where do you think she would jump a triple-triple and what her jump layout would be. I just want to see how many points she could rack up with a triple-triple.
I know all these are just hypothetical points for a perfect program from Mao but after such a short analysis I can clearly see she should not really concentrate on her 3A, let's be realistic, as much as I love Mao, she won't get her 3A like she did before 2010 and a triple-triple is more achievable.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Asada will absolutely need a 3A or 3/3 to win Worlds. She's done very well this season winning everything she entered so far. But Worlds is where everybody steps their game up, and Asada's jumps hasn't really been up to snuff. Plus, there's the matter of Yuna Kim, who doesn't seem to have missed a beat, coming back. The top contenders are all hungry killers. They will all assume that the others will bust out the big guns, so they are going to bring their own. It's an arms race and the motto is BYOB (Bring Your Own Bomb) if you want to win. Can Asada do it? I doubt it.

I don't think she'll absolutely need it, but she'll need an error from Yu Na without one. If you think about his, her 3F-2L is only about a point less than a 3T-3T and only about 3 points less than 3Z-3T. Her PCS advantage over those attempting 3Z-3T (e.g. Tuktamysheva) is more than enough to make up for the discrepancy. If the last quadrennial has proved anything it's that you don't need a 3-3 to win if you are a veteran skater. As for the 3A, I think that's beyond her at the moment and she would do better to get her 3-3 back.
 
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