Will Asada have the 3A for Worlds? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Will Asada have the 3A for Worlds?

figureskate

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 7, 2011
Well, IF
Now, if she is to jump a 3A, where would it be? Probably instead of a 2A-3T since she has been doing practises of her LP with 3A there. It can't be instead of her first jump, 3L because there's too little time for her to prepare for the big thing. The best she ever performed was about 9 points for her triple axel and we all know she's nowhere nere nailing it as she did at Olympics. Then she could make a combo with a 3T, probably 3F-3T so that she would have additionally about 5 points more for the combo and 0.4 for the axel instead of 2A-3T. So theoretically, she could earn 5.4 here and that would give a score of 144.3. But now let's face the truth. Her most recent good attempt at a triple axel was at 2012 4cc LP where she got 4.7 for it. There's no sense to perform it, it just takes too much time and her score with such an axel and a good 3-3 would be 140. So just 1.1 points more than a perfect program with no triple-triple and no 3A, just 2A-3T and 3F.
If she was to add a 3-3 where do you think it would be? In my opinion Mao would probably upgrade her solo 3F to 3F-3T but then she would have to eliminate one combination and all 3 worth a lot of points.

Anything will depend on what she wants to get from this worlds. Probably a 3axel is not worth the effort, nor the risk as she could place very high with a clean performance (the result will be kind of unpredictable considering that we don't know how Yuna will do it and, even foreseeing a near to perfect competition for her, we don't really know how the pcs will be as they tend to generally increase as time goes by). Anyway, I think she will want to introduce it and that could be her last chance for having it fixed for Sochi (at least mentally)
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
The 3t has never been a strong jump for Mao. She tends to toe-axel. So I'm not sure she is capable of doing a 3/3.

I'm also not sure she is capable of rotating a 3a any more. She hasn't tried one in a very long time, and the ones she tried post-Vancouver weren't rotated.

I think the Mao we saw at the GPF was the best Mao we're going to see.
 

mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
The 3t has never been a strong jump for Mao. She tends to toe-axel. So I'm not sure she is capable of doing a 3/3.

I'm also not sure she is capable of rotating a 3a any more. She hasn't tried one in a very long time, and the ones she tried post-Vancouver weren't rotated.

I think the Mao we saw at the GPF was the best Mao we're going to see.


Well in case you haven't noticed she has been landing the 3t in combination all season. I respect your views and doubts about Mao, but seriously the 3A Mao landed at Worlds and 4CC were breathtaking, and to claim those jumps never happened is :hb:


(sometimes I wonder if peoples memory really are that short, or if it's just purposely shortens when it concerns certain skaters)
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
no i don't think she will try it. She has been getting the PCS to not really need it.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Well in case you haven't noticed she has been landing the 3t in combination all season. I respect your views and doubts about Mao, but seriously the 3A Mao landed at Worlds and 4CC were breathtaking, and to claim those jumps never happened is :hb:


(sometimes I wonder if peoples memory really are that short, or if it's just purposely shortens when it concerns certain skaters)

it shortens when it comes to Mao. To some people she has the worst jumps, her aristry is not enough, she is destroying ice skating by winning this season and so on...... Thank God for youtube, because new fans will probably believe this.
 

Jammers

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Nov 4, 2010
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And this is why the Ladies have been regressing for the last couple years. Who cares if you can't do the more difficult jumps if you are going to be held up because of your PCS. The younger girls have no chance unless Carolina or Mai fall about 3 times. At least Kim still brings it technically and doesn't water down her jumps.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
And this is why the Ladies have been regressing for the last couple years. Who cares if you can't do the more difficult jumps if you are going to be held up because of your PCS. The younger girls have no chance unless Carolina or Mai fall about 3 times. At least Kim still brings it technically and doesn't water down her jumps.

So iceskating is only about jumping? Some of the younger girls have big jumps but are still missing the PCS. Mao has a layout of 7 triples. This woman decided to rework her jumps and we all know that takes a long time.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Well in case you haven't noticed she has been landing the 3t in combination all season. I respect your views and doubts about Mao, but seriously the 3A Mao landed at Worlds and 4CC were breathtaking, and to claim those jumps never happened is :hb:


(sometimes I wonder if peoples memory really are that short, or if it's just purposely shortens when it concerns certain skaters)

OK. here's the history of Mao's jumps starting with 2010 Worlds:

2010 Worlds
SP 3a<+2t
FS 3a, 3a<+2t

2010 TEB
SP 3a<<
FS 1a, 1a

2010 NHK
SP 2a
FS 1a, 1a

2011 4CC
SP 3a<
FS 3a, 2a+3t<

2011 Worlds
SP 3a<< fall
FS 3a<<, 2a+3t<

2011 NHK
SP 1a
FS 2a+3t

2011 COR
SP 2a
FS 2a-so (no 3t)

2012 4CC
SP 3a<
FS 3a<

2012 Worlds
SP 3a<<
FS 1a

2012 NHK
SP 2a
FS 2a+3t

2012 COC
SP 2a
FS 2a+3t<<

2012 GPF
SP 2a
FS 2a+3t<

Mao has attempted 16 3a since the Olympics. She rotated and landed two, one at Worlds 2010 and one at 4CC 2011. 14 attempts (88%) resulted in 5 URs, 4 DG and 5 pops. She also had six 2a+3t attempts between 4CC 2010 and the GP 2012; three were 3t< and one was 3t<<. Her success rate with 2a+3t is 33.3%.

My negativity with respect to the 3a and 2a+3t is based on her competition record with those jumps. She has a low success rate with both, but the 3a has been far less successful.
 

Selene

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 7, 2012
Well in case you haven't noticed she has been landing the 3t in combination all season. I respect your views and doubts about Mao, but seriously the 3A Mao landed at Worlds and 4CC were breathtaking, and to claim those jumps never happened is :hb:

She has underrotated the triple toe loop in combination with the double axel pretty much every time she's attempted it this season. Her triple flip is also chronically underrotated. The technical callers in Japan are the only ones giving her credit for her cheated jumps.

So, do I think Mao has the ability to fully rotate a 3A? No, all the attempts I have seen (from the videos of her practices) have been underrotated. And she can't even fully rotate lesser triples these days.

I don't think Mao can beat Kostner or Kim at Worlds. She can't beat those skaters based on PCS, which his how she has been winning over other skaters this season. And Kostner and Kim are both much better jumpers than Mao is, with high quality jumps and the ability to do triple-triples. Mao is a beautiful, artistic skater, but her wins this season are setting figure skating back. Her jump content/ability isn't even worthy of winning on the junior level.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
I don't think Mao can beat Kostner or Kim at Worlds. She can't beat those skaters based on PCS, which his how she has been winning over other skaters this season. And Kostner and Kim are both much better jumpers than Mao is, with high quality jumps and the ability to do triple-triples. Mao is a beautiful, artistic skater, but her wins this season are setting figure skating back. Her jump content/ability isn't even worthy of winning on the junior level.

So figure skating is all about the jumps? Besides NHK, which has been discussed ad nauseum, which competition did she not deserve to win so far? If non-jump elements/presentation aren't being rewarded, then there's no incentive for younger skaters to polish those skills since all they have to do is to jump well.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
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Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
I did notice in looking up the protocols that the only two 2a+3t ratified were at NHK in 2011 and 2012. The other 4 were either UR or DG. I also noticed the 3f<s and several 3f+2lo+2lo<. Mao has a general UR problem that can surface with almost any of her jumps. She also has a tendency to pop triples to doubles or singles.

I agree she will be in tough company with Kim and Kostner at Worlds and PCS won't save her against them; she was 6th at Worlds 2012 because of the fall on the 3a<< in the SP and two pops, a UR and a doubled jump in the FS. She couldn't beat Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova and Murakami last year; if she tries and fails the 3a again, some of them may beat her this year as well.

IMO, she will do OK at 4CC because it's home ice and she's not facing any PCS monsters.
 

Selene

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 7, 2012
So figure skating is all about the jumps? Besides NHK, which has been discussed ad nauseum, which competition did she not deserve to win so far? If non-jump elements/presentation aren't being rewarded, then there's no incentive for younger skaters to polish those skills since all they have to do is to jump well.

No, figure skating is not "all about the jumps." But I think that difficult jumps/jump combinations aren't being adequately rewarded in Ladies figure skating. I think Mao Asada has great skating skills, artistry and spins. But her jumping ability is so sub-par that she should not be able to win senior-level ISU competitions. At least Carolina Kostner goes for a triple-triple combination in her short program and has a true lutz. Mao has poor jump technique, is a flutzer, chronically underrotates jumps, can't land triple-triples, etc.

I did notice in looking up the protocols that the only two 2a+3t ratified were at NHK in 2011 and 2012. The other 4 were either UR or DG. I also noticed the 3f<s and several 3f+2lo+2lo<. Mao has a general UR problem that can surface with almost any of her jumps. She also has a tendency to pop triples to doubles or singles.

I agree she will be in tough company with Kim and Kostner at Worlds and PCS won't save her against them; she was 6th at Worlds 2012 because of the fall on the 3a<< in the SP and two pops, a UR and a doubled jump in the FS. She couldn't beat Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova and Murakami last year; if she tries and fails the 3a again, some of them may beat her this year as well.

IMO, she will do OK at 4CC because it's home ice and she's not facing any PCS monsters.

She will win the 4CC because it's in Japan. The technical caller will probably give her credit for all of her cheated jumps, too. As I stated in an earlier post, the technical callers in Japan are the only ones giving her credit for her underrotated jumps.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
I did notice in looking up the protocols that the only two 2a+3t ratified were at NHK in 2011 and 2012. The other 4 were either UR or DG. I also noticed the 3f<s and several 3f+2lo+2lo<. Mao has a general UR problem that can surface with almost any of her jumps. She also has a tendency to pop triples to doubles or singles.

I agree she will be in tough company with Kim and Kostner at Worlds and PCS won't save her against them; she was 6th at Worlds 2012 because of the fall on the 3a<< in the SP and two pops, a UR and a doubled jump in the FS. She couldn't beat Wagner, Suzuki, Leonova and Murakami last year; if she tries and fails the 3a again, some of them may beat her this year as well.

IMO, she will do OK at 4CC because it's home ice and she's not facing any PCS monsters.

Mao Asada with Yuna always there was not a big difference in pcs, and was big difference in tes.

who have been recieved highest pcs in the Grand Prix series this season is mao asada.
like cup of china, although she receive downgrade more than half the triple jumps still, to be able to win.
1. 4cc in japan
JSU is very kind to her.
2. she is strong in pcs always.
 
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mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
She has underrotated the triple toe loop in combination with the double axel pretty much every time she's attempted it this season. Her triple flip is also chronically underrotated. The technical callers in Japan are the only ones giving her credit for her cheated jumps.

So, do I think Mao has the ability to fully rotate a 3A? No, all the attempts I have seen (from the videos of her practices) have been underrotated. And she can't even fully rotate lesser triples these days.




I don't think Mao can beat Kostner or Kim at Worlds. She can't beat those skaters based on PCS, which his how she has been winning over other skaters this season. And Kostner and Kim are both much better jumpers than Mao is, with high quality jumps and the ability to do triple-triples. Mao is a beautiful, artistic skater, but her wins this season are setting figure skating back. Her jump content/ability isn't even worthy of winning on the junior level.

the technical caller in japan? so japan hires it's own tech caller at nationals and ISU events, why don't you take a look at each competition she participated in and see who the technical caller was, if we have to follow your logic then the outcome would not have made sense.

it's funny how you mention Kim and Carolina as if they had flawless skates, should i remind you of of the falls (kim) popped jumps (kostner) and all the other issues they have showed at each competition they participated in. there mistakes were disturbing the whole performance, and what makes you think that those mistakes wont be repeated again. I seriously don't see why the likes of kostner and Kim would have an edge over Mao based on what I have seen them perform.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Both Kostner and Kim have 3/3s, and Mao has had more failed 2a+3t than she's landed. She's planning to add a 3a with which she's had a 12% success rate over the past 3 years, and she has a history of popped and underrotated jumps. All three ladies have strong PCS scores, but Kostner and Kim are more consistent skaters than Mao; they are far more likely to get higher TES than she.
 

mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
My negativity with respect to the 3a and 2a+3t is based on her competition record with those jumps. She has a low success rate with both, but the 3a has been far less successful.

So let me understand your point of view, when you look at statistic you capture every missed attempt but deny every attempt succeeded ever happened,what a nice way to twist reality the way one wants it to be!
 
Joined
Mar 11, 2011
OMG, mary01, chuckm clearly stated she has 12% of 3a success rate. If that isn't recognizing Mao indeed succeeded in 3a sometimes, what is it?
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
No, figure skating is not "all about the jumps." But I think that difficult jumps/jump combinations aren't being adequately rewarded in Ladies figure skating. I think Mao Asada has great skating skills, artistry and spins. But her jumping ability is so sub-par that she should not be able to win senior-level ISU competitions. At least Carolina Kostner goes for a triple-triple combination in her short program and has a true lutz. Mao has poor jump technique, is a flutzer, chronically underrotates jumps, can't land triple-triples, etc.



She will win the 4CC because it's in Japan. The technical caller will probably give her credit for all of her cheated jumps, too. As I stated in an earlier post, the technical callers in Japan are the only ones giving her credit for her underrotated jumps.

You lost me when you said she should not be winning senior level competitions. Go back to her competitions this seasin and please tell me who should have won. So Mao is expected to be perfect? Interesting
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
By the way this thread was about Mao bringing back her 3a. But of course some people had to make it a negative mao is the worst thread
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
She probably won't have it ready for worlds but she'll go for it no matter what. Does she need it? No, but I don't think she's doing it because of high BV. Mao is (was) known for her 3 axels and she may feel the pressure from others to do it. I remember japanese media were like crazy when she tried those at some practises. Mao also said once that a triple axel was her mother's favourite jump, it may mean a lot for her.
A triple axel is definitely not necessary for Mao to win. What she needs is
1. A 100% clean skate. Well, one flutz is allowed ;)
2. A mistake from Yuna (sad but true)
3. Maybe a triple-triple.
I'd like Mao to concentrate on triple-triples because it would be more reliable and just more secure to perform. Still, a clean program with no 3-3 is better than the one with that combination full of UR's and doubles instead of triples.

She needs to fulfill that 1. and 2. if she wants gold medal. Mao with a squeaky-clean 2 programs should beat Yuna with a mistake. But if they both skate clean, Yuna might win.

Judges barely give any -GOEs for a flutz/lip-they just give 0 or -1. So a Mao with a flutz but no other mistakes should score very high, probably around 135~145..
 
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