Gold has had 7 international competitions in total (between Junior and Senior) so it's not like she has this oodles of experience that Osmond is lacking as someone else has suggested...
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Carolina Kostner.
4. Akiko Suzuki
5. Ashley Wagner
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
7. Gracie Gold
8. Kanako Murakami
9. Adelina Sonitkova
10. Kaetlyn Osmond
11. Zijun Li
7-11 are really hard to predict. It could go in any order. Zijun Li is a real wild-card. And if Gracie Gold skates two clean programs, she will medal.
Last edited by jenaj; 02-12-2013 at 03:19 PM.
Last edited by CanadianSkaterGuy; 02-12-2013 at 03:44 PM.
Like Murakami, Li has flutz and UR issues, but Kanako gets much better PCS scores than Zijun. Kanako finished top 5 at Worlds 2012 while Zijun was out of the medals at JW 2012.
Adelina attempted 3z+3t at Euros, but it was scored 3ze+3t<.
Carolina K did 3f+2t at Euros, but it's possible she might go for the 3/3 at Worlds.
Mao tried both 3f+3lo and 2a+3t in the 4CC FS, but they were scored as 3f+3lo< and 2a+3t<. IMO, she'll try them again at Worlds, along with the 3a, which was OK in the SP but < in the FS.
Adelina said at the beginning of the seaon she'd add the 3L-3T to the SP if it's more reliable. I don't think it is by now, additionally there's the egde call problem. That would just ruin the good +GOE she could get.Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
And Mao will very likely go for the 3A, isn't that 'going for it' enough? Should keep her close enough to Yuna, and if she does 3F-3Lo, there's the problem with the remaining triple jump out of steps.
I'm not the biggest Ashley fan, and by now I kind of lost faith she'll add a 3-3, she was injured and ill too, that certainly didn't help.
The closest might be Carolina, she practiced 3F-3T a lot and seems to want to include it into the FS. Hes FS-layout clearly shows that she still wants to be competitive, so she might take the risk. Although I wonder how far ahead people think Yuna will be. Caro could score close to 70 even without 3F-3T.
By your logic, all the skaters at 4CC beat Osmond because they "got lucky", because Osmond did them a favour by landing only 3 triples.
Sotnikova clean has more difficult content and has been better received on the PCS side than Osmond so far. If she hadn't had such a mess, she would have won. You cannot deny that. Tuktamysheva has been technically consistent (except while recovering from injury, ie Skate Canada) and putting up very, very big TES scores over the last two years which offset her rather average to date PCS marks (she's been in the mid 60s in SP and around 125 in the LP when she hits her big technical content not including Euros where the difficult program bonus went into effect and her PCS went up several points). That Osmond faced Tutkamysheva at her physical worst of the season was lucky for Osmond. Suzuki had a number of mistakes at Skate Canada which she seems to have resolved of late. I am saying that Osmond DID have some luck on her side that the skaters who came into the season as contenders (Sotnikova, Tutkamysheva, and Suzuki) skated poorly in the early season for various reasons (and other than Euros, not sure if Sotnikova's inconsistency issues are truly resolved) and so instead of being 2nd or 3rd at those events respectively as her potentially projected finishes were by folks if she skated well, the other skaters who came in with reputation of being the contenders (Sotnikova, Suzuki, and Tuktamysheva) helped her out. By definition to me, that is lucky, in the same way I think Wagner lucked out that Leonova (the 1-3 seed at SA) hasn't managed to get herself together and was a mess at SA and Kostner withdrew from the GP series in total (Kostner was supposed to be at TEB, I believe, in the initial draw). Sometimes a little luck can get you just a bit further than all the hard work can. I thought Kostner was lucky last year at Worlds that Mao was dealing with her personal issues surrounding the loss of her mother and wasn't in fighting shape and Kim took the season off. Make of it what you will...
Osmond was confident at Skate Canada, with an eager and supportive audience rooting for her, and she skated freely and exuberantly in both SP and FS, despite some mistakes in the FS.
But 4CC wasn't a 10-skater GP event in her own country, it was a Senior ISU Championship, her first, and on foreign ice. Kaetlyn was noticeably nervous from the moment she took the ice for her SP; after her fall on the 3f, she tightened up and her performance lost spark. It was pretty much the same in the FS: Kaetlyn had that 'deer in the headlights' look and she singled the second jump of her 3f combo right off the bat, fell on the 3f again, and then doubled the first jump of her 3-jump combo. Nerves plus the missteps inhibited Kaetlyn; she never really got into the "Carmen" character she'd displayed at SC, hence her PCS scores were lower than they'd been at SC.
You're basically saying that, if a skater isn't slated to win, then should they happen to perform well, and their competitors makes mistakes, then they're lucky to have won. Yes, skaters benefit from higher placements if other skaters falter -- but that's what's supposed to happen.
It's kinda ridiculous to say: ""So-and-so would have totally won, if only they hadn't made all those errors."
And also, the point of saying Kostner was lucky that Mao had stuff to deal with and Kim wasn't competing is also detracting from her win, because even if Mao didn't have that stuff to deal with and even if Kim was competing, it wasn't a sure bet that they would have put together programs to beat her. I'm rather annoyed by all the hypothetical "Oh, well, if so and so wasn't injured. Oh, well, if so and so wasn't jetlagged, if so and so hadn't competed two days earlier." These are all variables, but the reality is, the skater who competes should feel ready to compete. Stojko never said "Oh, well, I had a groin injury so I didn't get gold." No, you leave your excuses at the door. There are hundreds of wins that have occurred because big names faltered and others stepped up... that doesn't make them lucky or not well-earned.
Last edited by CanadianSkaterGuy; 02-12-2013 at 09:09 PM.