4CC Ladies Free Skate

[drivingmissdaisy]

So far it seems like Worlds will be like this:

1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Carolina Kostner.
4. Akiko Suzuki
5. Adelina Kostner
6. Ashley Wagner
7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
8. Zijun Li
9. Gracie Gold
10. Kaetlyn Osmond/ Kanako Murakami

If everyone skated clean this is exactly how I think the order would be, except I might sway Adelina and Akiko, and probably put Zijun last on this list. Outside the top 3, which I think will be the medalists in whatever order, there could be a great deal of variability depending upon who makes mistakes. Liza is usually pretty solid so I could see her as high as 4th if the others make mistakes, and Adelina or Akiko could medal if Mao or Carolina have a meltdown in the LP. I don't like Ashley's odds of medaling much now because we have seen some great performances at Euros and 4CC that have far surpassed what Ashley has delivered lately.

[mskater93]

To be fair, Gracie's pressure is far greater than Osmond's, in bringing back 3 spots. It's not like people are asking Osmond to place in the top 2 so that Canada can have three spots.

Gracie has not just harder jumps but some of the best jumps. However, consistency goes to Osmond, IMO. I think people are being harder on Gracie because she's had inconsistencies this season (and thus they're freaking out about Worlds) whereas this has been Osmond's first bad competition.

Osmond has been clean exactly once this season - at Challenge. She wasn't completely clean at any other competition this year, so saying she's "consistent" is a misnomer...She has gotten lucky in that Sotnikova was a mess at the Senior B, Suzuki made mistakes enough at SC and Tuktamysheva was recovering from injury at SC, and she had NO competition at her own Nationals...

Gold has had 7 international competitions in total (between Junior and Senior) so it's not like she has this oodles of experience that Osmond is lacking as someone else has suggested...

[jenaj]

If everyone skated clean this is exactly how I think the order would be, except I might sway Adelina and Akiko, and probably put Zijun last on this list. Outside the top 3, which I think will be the medalists in whatever order, there could be a great deal of variability depending upon who makes mistakes. Liza is usually pretty solid so I could see her as high as 4th if the others make mistakes, and Adelina or Akiko could medal if Mao or Carolina have a meltdown in the LP. I don't like Ashley's odds of medaling much now because we have seen some great performances at Euros and 4CC that have far surpassed what Ashley has delivered lately.

Everyone isn't going to skate clean so I think it will be more like this:


1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Carolina Kostner.
4. Akiko Suzuki
5. Ashley Wagner
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
7. Gracie Gold
8. Kanako Murakami
9. Adelina Sonitkova
10. Kaetlyn Osmond
11. Zijun Li

7-11 are really hard to predict. It could go in any order. Zijun Li is a real wild-card. And if Gracie Gold skates two clean programs, she will medal.

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Osmond has been clean exactly once this season - at Challenge. She wasn't completely clean at any other competition this year, so saying she's "consistent" is a misnomer...She has gotten lucky in that Sotnikova was a mess at the Senior B, Suzuki made mistakes enough at SC and Tuktamysheva was recovering from injury at SC, and she had NO competition at her own Nationals...

Gold has had 7 international competitions in total (between Junior and Senior) so it's not like she has this oodles of experience that Osmond is lacking as someone else has suggested...

I never said Osmond's been consistently clean, I said she has been consistent. Her SP has been consistently clean more often than not, and she's landed at least 4 triples in her FS performances (5 if you exclude Skate Canada, and of course, 4CC) -- which is pretty consistent given the skating we've seen this season. And certainly her results have been consistent. I consider a win to be more than just lucky. You can say "oh, she only won because the other skaters did poorly"... that's competition. Please don't debase her accomplishments as lucky, when she clearly earned them when she skated well (just as how she was marked down at 4CC when she didn't skate well). She can't help it if others didn't skate well so it's not as though her victories were handed to her.

[drivingmissdaisy]

7-11 are really hard to predict. It could go in any order. Zijun Li is a real wild-card. And if Gracie Gold skates two clean programs, she will medal.

I think Zijun should be a wild card but the judges probably won't give her the PCS to be competitive with the women above her. What I'm really excited about is seeing whether some of the skaters take a big risk and attempt harder combos in their SP to try to stay close to Yuna on TES. I'd love to see Ashley (3F-3T), Adelina (3Z-3T), Carolina (3F-3T), and Mao (3F-3L) go for it, but most will probably keep their current content.

[chuckm]

Like Murakami, Li has flutz and UR issues, but Kanako gets much better PCS scores than Zijun. Kanako finished top 5 at Worlds 2012 while Zijun was out of the medals at JW 2012.

[chuckm]

What I'm really excited about is seeing whether some of the skaters take a big risk and attempt harder combos in their SP to try to stay close to Yuna on TES. I'd love to see Ashley (3F-3T), Adelina (3Z-3T), Carolina (3F-3T), and Mao (3F-3L) go for it, but most will probably keep their current content.

Ashley hasn't attempted 3f+3t in a long time and after her last two rough outings, I rather doubt she will go for it at Worlds.

Adelina attempted 3z+3t at Euros, but it was scored 3ze+3t<.

Carolina K did 3f+2t at Euros, but it's possible she might go for the 3/3 at Worlds.

Mao tried both 3f+3lo and 2a+3t in the 4CC FS, but they were scored as 3f+3lo< and 2a+3t<. IMO, she'll try them again at Worlds, along with the 3a, which was OK in the SP but < in the FS.

[Li'Kitsu]

What I'm really excited about is seeing whether some of the skaters take a big risk and attempt harder combos in their SP to try to stay close to Yuna on TES. I'd love to see Ashley (3F-3T), Adelina (3Z-3T), Carolina (3F-3T), and Mao (3F-3L) go for it, but most will probably keep their current content.

Adelina said at the beginning of the seaon she'd add the 3L-3T to the SP if it's more reliable. I don't think it is by now, additionally there's the egde call problem. That would just ruin the good +GOE she could get.
And Mao will very likely go for the 3A, isn't that 'going for it' enough? Should keep her close enough to Yuna, and if she does 3F-3Lo, there's the problem with the remaining triple jump out of steps.
I'm not the biggest Ashley fan, and by now I kind of lost faith she'll add a 3-3, she was injured and ill too, that certainly didn't help.
The closest might be Carolina, she practiced 3F-3T a lot and seems to want to include it into the FS. Hes FS-layout clearly shows that she still wants to be competitive, so she might take the risk. Although I wonder how far ahead people think Yuna will be. Caro could score close to 70 even without 3F-3T.

[shine]

Osmond has been clean exactly once this season - at Challenge. She wasn't completely clean at any other competition this year, so saying she's "consistent" is a misnomer...She has gotten lucky in that Sotnikova was a mess at the Senior B,

She "didn't get lucky". Her performance at Nebelhorn was first rate, even with the fall on the toe it would've very likely gotten her another GP medal or so.

By your logic, all the skaters at 4CC beat Osmond because they "got lucky", because Osmond did them a favour by landing only 3 triples.

[mskater93]

Sotnikova clean has more difficult content and has been better received on the PCS side than Osmond so far. If she hadn't had such a mess, she would have won. You cannot deny that. Tuktamysheva has been technically consistent (except while recovering from injury, ie Skate Canada) and putting up very, very big TES scores over the last two years which offset her rather average to date PCS marks (she's been in the mid 60s in SP and around 125 in the LP when she hits her big technical content not including Euros where the difficult program bonus went into effect and her PCS went up several points). That Osmond faced Tutkamysheva at her physical worst of the season was lucky for Osmond. Suzuki had a number of mistakes at Skate Canada which she seems to have resolved of late. I am saying that Osmond DID have some luck on her side that the skaters who came into the season as contenders (Sotnikova, Tutkamysheva, and Suzuki) skated poorly in the early season for various reasons (and other than Euros, not sure if Sotnikova's inconsistency issues are truly resolved) and so instead of being 2nd or 3rd at those events respectively as her potentially projected finishes were by folks if she skated well, the other skaters who came in with reputation of being the contenders (Sotnikova, Suzuki, and Tuktamysheva) helped her out. By definition to me, that is lucky, in the same way I think Wagner lucked out that Leonova (the 1-3 seed at SA) hasn't managed to get herself together and was a mess at SA and Kostner withdrew from the GP series in total (Kostner was supposed to be at TEB, I believe, in the initial draw). Sometimes a little luck can get you just a bit further than all the hard work can. I thought Kostner was lucky last year at Worlds that Mao was dealing with her personal issues surrounding the loss of her mother and wasn't in fighting shape and Kim took the season off. Make of it what you will...

[chuckm]

Osmond was confident at Skate Canada, with an eager and supportive audience rooting for her, and she skated freely and exuberantly in both SP and FS, despite some mistakes in the FS.

But 4CC wasn't a 10-skater GP event in her own country, it was a Senior ISU Championship, her first, and on foreign ice. Kaetlyn was noticeably nervous from the moment she took the ice for her SP; after her fall on the 3f, she tightened up and her performance lost spark. It was pretty much the same in the FS: Kaetlyn had that 'deer in the headlights' look and she singled the second jump of her 3f combo right off the bat, fell on the 3f again, and then doubled the first jump of her 3-jump combo. Nerves plus the missteps inhibited Kaetlyn; she never really got into the "Carmen" character she'd displayed at SC, hence her PCS scores were lower than they'd been at SC.

[wonderlen3000]

I think it's great that Mao and Yu Na are putting the heat on her and I'm very curious to see how she responds technically. There are reports of her trying 3F-3T and 3Z-3T and it looks like she might need it. Although her Bolero is being well received by the judges so that could alleviate some of the pressure to up her technical game. I wouldn't say she's super consistent with her only good competition (technically speaking) being Italian Nationals. Euros she was rather fortunate to get the win. One would have to imagine Mao would have beaten her with this 4CC performance, certainly in the SP and arguably in the FS.

Koster was majorly gifted at Euro as always. She should have been 3rd with the mistake on SP and LP. Problem is she never skated clean SP or LP or together. If she lands 3 triples in SP and 7 in Lp, she deserved her 2nd world title.

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Sotnikova clean has more difficult content and has been better received on the PCS side than Osmond so far. If she hadn't had such a mess, she would have won. You cannot deny that. Tuktamysheva has been technically consistent (except while recovering from injury, ie Skate Canada) and putting up very, very big TES scores over the last two years which offset her rather average to date PCS marks (she's been in the mid 60s in SP and around 125 in the LP when she hits her big technical content not including Euros where the difficult program bonus went into effect and her PCS went up several points). That Osmond faced Tutkamysheva at her physical worst of the season was lucky for Osmond. Suzuki had a number of mistakes at Skate Canada which she seems to have resolved of late. I am saying that Osmond DID have some luck on her side that the skaters who came into the season as contenders (Sotnikova, Tutkamysheva, and Suzuki) skated poorly in the early season for various reasons (and other than Euros, not sure if Sotnikova's inconsistency issues are truly resolved) and so instead of being 2nd or 3rd at those events respectively as her potentially projected finishes were by folks if she skated well, the other skaters who came in with reputation of being the contenders (Sotnikova, Suzuki, and Tuktamysheva) helped her out. By definition to me, that is lucky, in the same way I think Wagner lucked out that Leonova (the 1-3 seed at SA) hasn't managed to get herself together and was a mess at SA and Kostner withdrew from the GP series in total (Kostner was supposed to be at TEB, I believe, in the initial draw). Sometimes a little luck can get you just a bit further than all the hard work can. I thought Kostner was lucky last year at Worlds that Mao was dealing with her personal issues surrounding the loss of her mother and wasn't in fighting shape and Kim took the season off. Make of it what you will...

I don't see your point as anyone with more technical content can go clean, but if they don't then they deserve to lose to skaters with good content who execute it well. Should we say the only reason Kevin won 4CC is because Hanyu and Takahashi didn't land all their jumps... not because, say, Reynolds actually skated well. Gold could have also medalled at 4CC had she gone clean with her more difficult content. Are we to say "Oh, the only reason Murakami won bronze is because Gold didn't skate well."?

You're basically saying that, if a skater isn't slated to win, then should they happen to perform well, and their competitors makes mistakes, then they're lucky to have won. Yes, skaters benefit from higher placements if other skaters falter -- but that's what's supposed to happen.

It's kinda ridiculous to say: ""So-and-so would have totally won, if only they hadn't made all those errors."

And also, the point of saying Kostner was lucky that Mao had stuff to deal with and Kim wasn't competing is also detracting from her win, because even if Mao didn't have that stuff to deal with and even if Kim was competing, it wasn't a sure bet that they would have put together programs to beat her. I'm rather annoyed by all the hypothetical "Oh, well, if so and so wasn't injured. Oh, well, if so and so wasn't jetlagged, if so and so hadn't competed two days earlier." These are all variables, but the reality is, the skater who competes should feel ready to compete. Stojko never said "Oh, well, I had a groin injury so I didn't get gold." No, you leave your excuses at the door. There are hundreds of wins that have occurred because big names faltered and others stepped up... that doesn't make them lucky or not well-earned.

[ForeverFish]

I think Zijun should be a wild card but the judges probably won't give her the PCS to be competitive with the women above her. What I'm really excited about is seeing whether some of the skaters take a big risk and attempt harder combos in their SP to try to stay close to Yuna on TES. I'd love to see Ashley (3F-3T), Adelina (3Z-3T), Carolina (3F-3T), and Mao (3F-3L) go for it, but most will probably keep their current content.

Unless she's made considerable improvement post-Euros, Adelina will most likely get nailed (again) on her popped 3F. I don't think she's landed it clean all season.

[ForeverFish]

Canada doesn't have a "better alternative" to Kaetlyn in either technicality or consistency. Up till 4CC, she's been consistent. The US definitely has better alternatives to Gracie in terms of consistency - which is a better method of risking taking if they want 3 spots back.

It's not a double standard if they both are in completely different situations.

But are they? I'd say that Kaetlyn is under more pressure as the only one who can bring back Canada's two spots, but who other than Gracie would the US send? I don't think she's the biggest risk, but she can definitely bring the greatest reward.