Time for New US World Selection System?

[karne]

To throw in my 2c:

I love Josh, I adore Josh, I think his skating is wonderful, I'm utterly convinced he's champion material.

But IMO Max won Nationals deservedly, and Ross was second deservedly. The only thing I would quibble over was that I thought Josh probably deserved the bronze. But hey, I freely admit that may just be my biases talking. PCS scores? Josh's were lower than Ross' and correctly so. I really enjoyed Ross' LP at Nationals. Josh I thought was a bit slower than usual, and maybe a little bit nervous, though I don't recall him smiling quite as much during a program this season as he did at Nationals. So IMO that PCS difference was fair. And as for the technical difference, well, Ross DID land a quad and Josh fell on his.

What left me most in awe, I think, was Max Aaron's SPEED. OH MY GOD. HOW DOES HE CONTROL IT?


Mind you, if we wanna talk transitions, can I just mention that I want Jason to keep that incredible spiral (a fan spiral?) into his 3Lz FOREVER? I'm quite convinced his hips are made of rubber.

[silverlake22]

I completely DISAGREE with this statement. Max does deserve a boost for skating clean but Max needs to get away from TomZ for Max to score the same PCS as Ross as none of TomZ's long term students have shown marvelous skating skills and transitions other than Abbott and he had a different foundation than the rest. From a technical blade to ice standpoint (power, edgework, ease, flow) Miner is second overall in the US behind Abbott right now and there SHOULD be a differential between him and the next tier of Aaron, Dornbush, Rippon, and Farris right now unless he puts out a sloppy mess (which he didn't at Nationals at all).

Gold, too, has excellent speed, flow and ease on the ice. She is much faster than Gao which affects the SS mark and hence the balance of the marks when she is on. Nagasu was in the same PCS range as Gold and Zawadski (60 ish). Gao was on the next level at 58.

I still hold that in person, there is something the judges are seeing/not seeing or hearing in that skater (noisy skating, perhaps?) that you don't see on TV that is giving these impressions...

Fair enough, having seen Gao in person though, I think she skates with a lot of speed. I haven't seen Gracie or Agnes live though so I can't compare, but to me, speed is one of the things that really makes Christina stand out.

I also think Dornbush has better basics/PCS components in general than Ross but he's just more prone to mistakes, when he skates up to his potential, I think he deserved higher PCS than Ross. Adam and Josh are both a bit slower and more focused on the jumps for now, that I'll give to you, but they also have other good qualities that almost seem to make up for that. And Max's speed is really incredible, especially for such a small guy, the way he generates and controls that kind of speed is mind-boggling.

And no one who was competing at JW was assigned to compete ay 4CC, and Rippon was the one assigned, Dornbush didn't get to compete until Rippon pulled out, so I really don't think the USFS has some kind of love fest with him like others suggest. Other Nations I'm sure would have been quick to send Dornbush to Worlds instead of Miner, or at least consider it, given the 4CC results and yet Dornbush is not even an alternate for the Worlds team in the US.

[eyria]

Fair enough, having seen Gao in person though, I think she skates with a lot of speed. I haven't seen Gracie or Agnes live though so I can't compare, but to me, speed is one of the things that really makes Christina stand out.

I was fortunate to see both Christina and Agnes live last fall at Evening with Champions. Yes, Christina skates with nice speed. Watching her, I didn't feel she was slow at all. She and Agnes both have good speed. I would say the difference between them is Agnes seemed to create bigger curves and bigger movement on the ice. This may be due partly to better edge use, but it's also because her choreography is simpler and easier than Christina's.

I also think Dornbush has better basics/PCS components in general than Ross but he's just more prone to mistakes, when he skates up to his potential, I think he deserved higher PCS than Ross. Adam and Josh are both a bit slower and more focused on the jumps for now, that I'll give to you, but they also have other good qualities that almost seem to make up for that. And Max's speed is really incredible, especially for such a small guy, the way he generates and controls that kind of speed is mind-boggling.

Dornbush has a kind of very fluid, easy movement on the ice which, when he's on, is very nice to see. Ross, I think, is more crisp and polished in his execution, but doesn't have quite the natural flow Richard does, JMO of course. They're quite different skaters, but I like them both. I think you're right, though, that if both skate up to potential with similar difficulty, Richard probably comes out slightly higher. (Remember that's what happened at 2011 Nationals/Worlds, before Dornbush started to struggle with consistency.)

[Mrs. P]

Fair enough, having seen Gao in person though, I think she skates with a lot of speed. I haven't seen Gracie or Agnes live though so I can't compare, but to me, speed is one of the things that really makes Christina stand out.

I also think Dornbush has better basics/PCS components in general than Ross but he's just more prone to mistakes, when he skates up to his potential, I think he deserved higher PCS than Ross. Adam and Josh are both a bit slower and more focused on the jumps for now, that I'll give to you, but they also have other good qualities that almost seem to make up for that. And Max's speed is really incredible, especially for such a small guy, the way he generates and controls that kind of speed is mind-boggling.

And no one who was competing at JW was assigned to compete ay 4CC, and Rippon was the one assigned, Dornbush didn't get to compete until Rippon pulled out, so I really don't think the USFS has some kind of love fest with him like others suggest. Other Nations I'm sure would have been quick to send Dornbush to Worlds instead of Miner, or at least consider it, given the 4CC results and yet Dornbush is not even an alternate for the Worlds team in the US.

Gao is not slow, for sure, but I'm basing my assessment on Gao relative to other skaters I saw at Skate America. Both Ashley and Adelina were considerably faster -- and compared to Mae Bernice, Gao's jumps do not have as much height -- actually Mae Bernice's jumps, IMO, were the biggest in the competition -- she could jump over toddlers. Gao's strength, in my opinion, is her musicality and her nice tight jumps. However, looking at the +GOE, Christina clearly needs to work on getting the extra bullets -- she needs to get more +2, rather than +1 or 0.

I haven't seen Gold or Zawadski in person, so I can't really say how Gao compares to those two.

Miner has beaten Dornbush hands down during GP both in placement and score this season, so I'm not sure why you would think Dornbush should have been sent over Miner, who has the highest SB out of all the men, not to mention the obvious fact that in their face-to-face meetings this season, Miner edged Dornbush out 2-1. I liked Dornbush a ton in the 2011 season when he won JGPF and silver at nationals (and had a solid placement at Worlds), but he's been pretty disappointing since then. I appreciate Miner's slow-and-steady approach to his career and his ability to work out his jumps, such as his 3A in the 2011 season and the 4S this season.

That's not to say Ross doesn't have stuff to work on -- as I said I think that at times he can be almost too subtle -- it's a problem I see with a lot of skaters. Richard's strength is that he skates big and bold -- so I can see why a lot of people prefer him over Ross. AT the same time, I think Ross' programs this season, particularly his FS, is working toward that bravado, that build up. I think you can't expect a skater to do too much at once, especially since Ross is trying to get consistent with the 4S.

[silverlake22]

Ross is a very well-rounded skater and I admire his consistency and recognize the quality of his skating, however, I find his skating to have a bit of a stiff and mechanical quality which I don't see in Richard, Joshua, or Adam. His jump technique, while solid, often looks like work, which is fine, but Ricky and Josh have more of an effortless jumping style that makes the jumps seem that much more impressive when they land them. I think Josh's effortless jumping style and elegant lines are what make me prefer him to Ross, although he admittedly does not have as much speed or power as Miner yet, and Ricky's animated performance quality and more languid, flowing style attribute to my fondness of his skating. I am hopeful Ross will do well at Worlds and all things considered he's a good candidate for the team, I more just feel his number 2 status in the US is maybe not so solid as some might think. In other words, I think Richard or Josh can overtake Ross in the near future, they just seem to have more room to grow.

[Mrs. P]

Ross is a very well-rounded skater and I admire his consistency and recognize the quality of his skating, however, I find his skating to have a bit of a stiff and mechanical quality which I don't see in Richard, Joshua, or Adam. His jump technique, while solid, often looks like work, which is fine, but Ricky and Josh have more of an effortless jumping style that makes the jumps seem that much more impressive when they land them. I think Josh's effortless jumping style and elegant lines are what make me prefer him to Ross, although he admittedly does not have as much speed or power as Miner yet, and Ricky's animated performance quality and more languid, flowing style attribute to my fondness of his skating. I am hopeful Ross will do well at Worlds and all things considered he's a good candidate for the team, I more just feel his number 2 status in the US is maybe not so solid as some might think. In other words, I think Richard or Josh can overtake Ross in the near future, they just seem to have more room to grow.

Of course Ross' No. 2 spot is not guaranteed, but Ross still has room to grow as well. He can add to his difficulty by getting a second quad or work toward more flow in his skating or stronger choreography. In fact, Ross' team strategy has not been to add a whole stuff at once, so I believe there's still plenty on the pipeline in his career development. And heck, he still can be a national champion! It would be awesome if he could do that in his hometown.

I don't really see Ross' jumps as being all that labored. I think Ross has great knees, which enables him to land the jumps quite well. I do agree that Josh's jumps has this elegance to them and he has nice lines. So does Jason Brown, for that matter. Karne, i agree that spiral into his 3Z is amazing! He's certainly in the mix as well. We'll see how he does at junior worlds!

[mskater93]

It was never stated that Ross would always be ahead of Ricky, Josh, Adam or Jason by either Mrs. P or myself. I believe my comment was AT THIS TIME Ross is currently the best American man on the PCS side who isn't named Jeremy Abbott. He's got that quietness of blade that is truly appreciated by skaters. He's like Savoie in that he's a "skaters' skater" - he's focused on one improvement at a time (not the scattershot approach we seem to be seeing with a lot of other men) and he's got wonderful blade work and an ease to his stroking and power and a subtle touch to his programs. Josh, Adam, and Ricky all have slowed down somewhat in order to reign in their jump issues and while they are improving their consistency on the hard stuff, they seem so focused on that technical thing they need (3A and 4T and/or 4S) that there are some things lacking (that come with confidence which comes with consistency which comes with practice) whereas Ross's team has approached adding the technical details in a different way which HAVEN'T affected how he skates his full programs. I'll admit, though, I've never been enamoured with Ricky too much because there's some things that I feel are lacking in his posture and skating that, while improved, just aren't "there" yet. I WOULD love to see Max get better programs, though, and possibly move to other options within the CS coaching community...Max is the exception to the TomZ student mold of no speed...but he's lacking some things on that side to be in the top tier overall.

I've see Gold, Gao, and Zawadski in person. Of the three, Gold is by far the fastest with the least amount of "visible work" that goes into her skating and her jumps can only be described as WOW, even the ones she doesn't land cleanly. I've been around a number of high level Junior and Senior ladies and of those, she's probably the second most talented that I've been around on the ice, the other being someone who burned out before reaching the highest level due to injury and other life issues getting in the way. Gao and Zawadski skate about at the same speed but Zawadski doesn't look like she's working quite as hard to attain it. In addition, if all three are clean, Gold will get the highest GOEs because her elements are the strongest overall of the three.

[Jammers]

I really think if Dornbush could stop screwing up so much he would be a solid number 2 behind Jeremy. Also i think Josh and Jason have the potential to pass up Ross also. They just need time. For Jason it's being consistent with the triple axel and getting a quad and for Josh its getting more speed and polish. Next year for sure will be a dogfight to get those two spots. As for bladework and flow no one except maybe Jeremy beats Jason Brown. I could watch him skate all day without doing one single jump.

[mskater93]

Agreed on Jason's blade to ice, Jammers, I was just including the guys that had the technical goods right now (3A consistent and a 4 something...) in my grouping.

[gkelly]

I really think if Dornbush could stop screwing up so much he would be a solid number 2 behind Jeremy.

Of course, Jeremy has to stop screwing up to remain as number 1.

Plus he'll probably only continue competing for one more year.

But I don't know how important it is to determine a hierarchy of who is the number 1, number 2, number 3 skater, etc. They all compete against each other. If they're close in overall ability, sometimes one guy wins and sometimes another does.

Regarding the world team selection, subject of this thread, I don't see that it's always possible to determine by looking at a year's worth of results who is the most worthy among skaters who are capable of earning similar scores even if they have different strengths and therefore different areas (e.g., jumps vs. PCS) where they earn the most. Things can change over the course of a year. Results at different events depend on who else was competing there, ice conditions, generosity of the judging and technical panels, etc. And not everyone had the same opportunities to participate in events being used to make those determinations. The closest thing to a level playing field is the one event where they all compete against each other.

If one skater stands out from the rest of the field by virtue of significantly superior skills and/or superior head for competition, then that skater will almost always earn the spot at Nationals.

But sometimes a skater who stands out that much is unable to compete at Nationals because of some acute health reason, equipment failure, etc. So the rules are flexible enough to allow such a skater to be named to the world team without having competed.

I can only think of two occasions over the last 20+ years when someone who competed at Nationals and was eligible to compete at Worlds was left off the world team in favor of someone who placed lower.

[Mrs. P]

I really think if Dornbush could stop screwing up so much he would be a solid number 2 behind Jeremy. Also i think Josh and Jason have the potential to pass up Ross also. They just need time. For Jason it's being consistent with the triple axel and getting a quad and for Josh its getting more speed and polish. Next year for sure will be a dogfight to get those two spots. As for bladework and flow no one except maybe Jeremy beats Jason Brown. I could watch him skate all day without doing one single jump.

I also agree that Jason's blade work is great. What impresses me even more is his transitions. As karne and I noted, doing a y-spiral into a triple lutz is just pure madness. I agree with mskater93, that he isn't competitive at this point because he isn't quite consistent on the 3A yet, but I think he will get there by next season, though I see him more a contender for 2018. IMO, 2018 (and the three World team selections before it) is going to be brutal --- you got Josh, Jason, Nathan Chen and Vincent Zhou plus anyone who returns from 2014--which likely will be Richard, Ross, Adam. Plus Alex Johnson!

[silverlake22]

Well hopefully we'll get to see Joshua and Jason compete on the GP next season. I'm a bit worried about either or both of them missing the boat at JW, not making the top 24 SB or WS lists, then wind up doing another season of JGP again because they are still young enough. Hopefully they can move up and get at least 1 if not 2 assignments though!

[dorispulaski]

For some reason, I thought this was Jason's last year of eligibility, but his birthday is in December, so I guess he does have another year, should he want it.

[silverlake22]

For some reason, I thought this was Jason's last year of eligibility, but his birthday is in December, so I guess he does have another year, should he want it.

Yes Jason and Josh were born 22 days apart and both after July 1, 1994 so they do not age out of ISU junior events until the end of the 2013-2014 season. It's easy to forgot they are so young because they both moved up the ranks, Nationally at least, so fast and have done very well for themselves, it's important to remember they are only just 18. Ricky when he won silver at US Nats after winning the JGPF has turned 19 in the summer and was in his last season of ISU junior eligibility, for comparison, and Ross turned 20 the week of that Nationals, and competed on the senior GP that fall, but couldn't be considered for JW after winning bronze at Nationals because he had already aged out. Ricky never competed at JW and Ross only did once, in 2009 where he was the same age as Josh and Jason now and was 10th (164.80). Both guys did medal at JGPF though. Interesting when everything is put into perspective, it makes Josh seemed advanced for his age and even where Jason just got his 3a recently, in terms of scoring ability, he would also fall into this category.

[ImaginaryPogue]

Is moving up to seniors (internationally) in the Olympic year something skaters tend to do? Doesn't it make more sense (if possible via age) to attempt it the season before or the season after?