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Thread: How to take 3 spots for Sochi?

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by noidont View Post
    Note that we are seeing a (very likely) situation that nobody but Korea (if Kim places first) and Japan gets three spots, and everybody falls right into their deserved places give or take. Canada doesn't even get two spots and this is when Osmond does reasonable. Ladies is just crazy deep this year. US isn't looking good with Wagner's difficulty.
    I actually think Italy has a better chance of getting 3 than the US, on the basis of Carolina's likely strong showing and Marchei's ability to place in 11th or better. Leonova going to Worlds now also can shake things up a bit. If she can skate relatively well she can push some skaters down another spot, whereas Nikol likely not would have.

  2. #32
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Leonova going to Worlds now also can shake things up a bit. If she can skate relatively well she can push some skaters down another spot, whereas Nikol likely not would have.
    Has this been confirmed and if so where. I know she won the Russia Cup but I was of the impression Russia had still not announced the team.

  3. #33
    Beliver in Sasha's Perfect Program Tinymavy15's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eyria View Post
    Personally I think her best strategy is to go with easier content. I think it's just too risky to suddenly throw triple/triples when she hasn't landed a single one all season. If she'd at least tried it in a previous comp, even if not landed 100%, I'd be better with it.

    Of course, she'll probably do just the opposite of my advice and land two combos, thereby proving me totally wrong. :-)
    right. I really don't see her trying it unless she has really been spot on in practice the week before. If Ashley can be clean (which we all know she can), she is top 5 material, even medal.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tinymavy15 View Post
    right. I really don't see her trying it unless she has really been spot on in practice the week before. If Ashley can be clean (which we all know she can), she is top 5 material, even medal.
    The problem is that Ashley is going to lose the SP to anyone in the top 10 who does a 3/3. She lost a SP to Julia L and would have lost to Agnes if Agnes were clean at Nats. So if Ashley is outside the top 6 she simply is not going to get the marks to put her on the podium with another group left to skate. There are 5 new skaters this year who can easily place ahead of Ashley if clean in the SP (AS, ET, GG, KO, and Yuna who did not skate at Worlds last year) in addition to those who beat her last year. Yes, she might be only 2 or 3 points behind some of them, but the problem is being in that penultimate group puts a skater at a scoring disadvantage.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    The problem is that Ashley is going to lose the SP to anyone in the top 10 who does a 3/3. She lost a SP to Julia L and would have lost to Agnes if Agnes were clean at Nats. So if Ashley is outside the top 6 she simply is not going to get the marks to put her on the podium with another group left to skate. There are 5 new skaters this year who can easily place ahead of Ashley if clean in the SP (AS, ET, GG, KO, and Yuna who did not skate at Worlds last year) in addition to those who beat her last year. Yes, she might be only 2 or 3 points behind some of them, but the problem is being in that penultimate group puts a skater at a scoring disadvantage.

    I agree. I think Ashley is going to be really pushing it to make top 6 if everyone else skates a clean short due to the amount of girls doing triple triple combos.

    I think this is going to be one of the most exciting worlds for all disciplines for a long time.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by snsd View Post
    I think this is going to be one of the most exciting worlds for all disciplines for a long time.
    Personally I think the pre-Olympic Worlds is usually the best of the quad. Just think of 2009 Worlds in L.A. and the incredible skating that happened there. It's less than 12 months before the Olympics, and everyone knows it's time to start bringing their A-game.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I actually think Italy has a better chance of getting 3 than the US, on the basis of Carolina's likely strong showing and Marchei's ability to place in 11th or better. Leonova going to Worlds now also can shake things up a bit. If she can skate relatively well she can push some skaters down another spot, whereas Nikol likely not would have.
    And how sad is that? Italy doesn't even have a third skater good enough to go to Worlds. Heck there's so little competition there Carolina doesn't even have to skate at her Nationals to make the team. To be honest she's lucky she didn't compete in the US or else with all her meltdowns in the past she would have be dumped or passed up by other skaters.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    And how sad is that? Italy doesn't even have a third skater good enough to go to Worlds. Heck there's so little competition there Carolina doesn't even have to skate at her Nationals to make the team. To be honest she's lucky she didn't compete in the US or else with all her meltdowns in the past she would have be dumped or passed up by other skaters.
    I doubt they would dump her in the US. She's way better than all US girls since Michelle. And Michelle is better by her amazing consistency.
    US likes potential, and actively promotes people like Agnes, Gracie, and Ashley who bombed again and again and with no upshot. If Ashley/Agnes/Gracies improved their PCS with crappier skates at National, you bet they will hand out 80 in PCS for Carolina even with 5 falls.

    In 2009 where she bombed big time at World, she made it to the GPF, medaled at the GPF, 2nd at Euro. Who did we send in 2009? Flatt and Alissa. If Carolina was at US National that year, Alissa wouldn't be near the podium, they have a real PCS queen to take her place.

    In 2010, she fell apart at Nat, but won Euro with a gorgeous 3f-3t. If she was in US Nat, she could either place 2nd or 3rd, maybe even 1st. Not sure if they would send Mirai over Carolina to the Olympics.

    So, no, don't see US dumping their best chance at a world medal.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Gracie has beaten Sotnikova twice in the last year so it's possible when she's on her game.
    Yes but Gracie skated well at the beginning of the season and Sotnikova skated badly. I think it turned the other way now. Gracie has not been skating that well and Sotnikova is skating great, so I wouldn't rely on the fact that Gracie beat Sotnikova before....

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    Yes but Gracie skated well at the beginning of the season and Sotnikova skated badly. I think it turned the other way now. Gracie has not been skating that well and Sotnikova is skating great, so I wouldn't rely on the fact that Gracie beat Sotnikova before....
    In reality, they've both been hot and cold all season. Sotnikova skated well at EUROPEANS, before that she had a decent Nationals, bad COR, okay SA, and okay Nebelhorn. Gracie had an okay SLC, bad SC, decent COR, overall good Nationals but was fabulous in the FS there, and an okay/not-so-great 4CC. They are pretty comparable IMO, Sotnikova's best competition this season just happens to have been her most recent whereas Gracie's was earlier.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    In reality, they've both been hot and cold all season. Sotnikova skated well at EUROPEANS, before that she had a decent Nationals, bad COR, okay SA, and okay Nebelhorn. Gracie had an okay SLC, bad SC, decent COR, overall good Nationals but was fabulous in the FS there, and an okay/not-so-great 4CC. They are pretty comparable IMO, Sotnikova's best competition this season just happens to have been her most recent whereas Gracie's was earlier.
    I suppose it depends also on whether she got a confidence boost out of it, or if she feels more pressure now?

  12. #42
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    Sotnikova is a headcase
    Gracie has a much better track record and has been doing well better this season compared to Sotnikova

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Sotnikova is a headcase
    Gracie has a much better track record and has been doing well better this season compared to Sotnikova
    Idk if this is fair to say. Buianova or TAT, one or the other, said Adelina was dealing with minor but nagging injuries this season. If this is true and the injuries are better now, then it would make sense why Adelina skated well at Euros and she may well skate at Worlds. In terms of being a "headcase", I think it's too early to call either of these girls that, but if we are talking about inconsistency performing at competitions, I would say they are pretty much even. If they both were to skate clean and to their potential though, I think Adelina would have the edge over Gracie, she is stronger in spins and PCS.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    I suppose it depends also on whether she got a confidence boost out of it, or if she feels more pressure now?
    I hope she got more confident. I think Adelina is the one skater who can shake things up at the top, maybe not this year but certainly in Sochi. If she can skate well and manage a 3rd or 4th place finish she will be set up perfectly to compete for the OGM in 2014.

  15. #45
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    Sotnikova is definitely a headcase on the triple flip. She's so inconsistent on it. Singles are so common. She can't get it consistent in any way. Good triples or singles on it and you never know what is going to happen.

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